BleakMidwinter

Probably because all models are able to tell that there is a strong potential for snow but are very well-known to be poor at predicting the extent of convective snow on an easterly. Snow forecasts are NOT reliable in this set-up. None of them. Hence why there are wider warning-areas with low certainty. If it lands on your head, then you have snow, basically...

Not to mention that the Beast has always been about cold, first and foremost, with potential for snow a secondary thing resulting from that cold. I think I must have been reading a completely different Model thread, one in which the discussions were about the cold pool first, and possible snow second...

Apparently that is typical of this particular kind of 'convective snow' - because the air is very dry, there's not much ice formed.

Hang on, are you complaining about the Met Office Warnings, which are adjusted as new data is acquired, or are you complaining about the people who post in the Model Thread in here? "It's nothing like 'the whole country will be buried in snow' predicted by the so called experts in the M.O thread. " The people who post in the Model Thread don't run the Met Office, you know... Today was always about the cold arriving, according to the models, as said again and again in here and in the Models thread.

I haven't seen any of the more experienced bods in the Model thread say that. What I have seen, again and again, is posts in there and in here saying that this specific type of convective snow on an easterly is incredibly difficult to forecast, and that the Met Office warnings have to be widespread, because there can be no certainty about where any snow may land. They have to have a warning out, because there is potential for a helluva lot of snow - so they do the intelligent thing and have a warning that says, "don't know where, but it could be majorly disruptive". Also, right from the start what was forecast to arrive today was the COLD. Not the snow. That was never forecast to arrive in any great quantity today - some snow possible on Mon/Tues, then bitterly bitterly coldER on Thursday, and potential for a totally different weather system to come up from the SW, possibly snow-bearing. Then everyone complains they haven't had their backyard transformed into Tan Hill in 1963...

Yeah, sorry about that. My doing. My chap is driving home from Manchester to Telford, setting off about nowish, so I arranged with the Clerk of the Weather for the A56/556/M6 route to stay clear til he's home... It should start getting westwards again after midnight

I wouldn't worry a bout not seeing anything on radar out in the North Sea - this is convective snow, which I believe means it forms as it comes over the sea. It isn't like Britain's normal snow, ie frontal snow, where you have snow-bearing clouds coming across the sea. this is more sort of forming-as-it-arrives...

Here is my favourite picture - Wed's 850 temps - it looks like the great Viking saga wolf, Fenris, who eats the sun and battles Thor at Ragnarok, the end of the world... here he is, his great wolf-jaws agape, ready to gobble up our defenceless little island... :o

I does me best to oblige, Missus! *:: curtseys meekly::*

Manchester. You know what it's like round there... I just like to be sure he's got everything he might need, what with me not being alongside as co-pilot as usual. You should see me travelling light

And now if all the weather could just hold off doing anything difficult until about 1:30am, in the area between Telford and Manchester, it would be appreciated... My chap has just set off for an evening out, with the car suspension groaning under the weight of all the food I've forced him to take with him, cans of coke, and blankets, jumpers, woolly socks, hats, gloves, mittens for over the gloves, waterproof rip-stop nylon sheet, five kilos of dishwasher-salt granules, a shovel, nylon broom, spade, torches, reflective hi-viz armbands with LED lights... I am assuming all of it will come back untouched (okay, apart from maybe the coke and the sausage-rolls and the packet of Twixes!) but, well, if he needs any of it, he'll be in a situation where he'll be glad of all of it! It can deluge with snow, but after 1:30am in the Manchester-to-Telford line please!

So far as I understand it, the models are ALL known to be unreliable with forecasting how far convective snow travels inland. Apparently they can identify that it's occurring but not its range. So basically, there is no forecast that can say where snow will fall in a day or two days, let alone three or four. It's having to be worked out by looking at the weather systems creating that flow and those keep changing and shifting slightly... Someone in the Model thread posted a dozen ensembles, each showing minor variation, but he helpfully oput a black line on each showing where the snow-line woudl be if that specific one came off - and it ranged enormously. Each forecast is basically looking at a huge range and then working out the more likely, less likely and mid-range and basing the forecast on that. It must be a DREADFUL wk to work in meteorology! Lovely to watch, some of the most exciting weather systems in decades, but ghastly to be responsible for coming up with forecasts in!

Strewth! It's the Eastern Wolf itself, jaws agape, saliva drooling, ready to gobble up our little island...! :o

But the main snow hasn't started yet! All today's flurries are bonus-flurries that weren't really expected. the main snow from the East is forecast Tues/Wed, the biggest dip in temps is Thurs, the possible low from SW is for Fri/Sat. Really, don't despair over today's free bonus extra freebie snow!

I've carefully been concentrating on the cold when telling people, and just keeping on saying that this type of snow is the worst sort for the models to forecast so nobody knows where or how much... but that where there is snow, there's potential for huge amounts, and wherever you are it's going to be bloody cold... think I'm safe on the reputation front!

Yes, various forecasts now have Telford as having a couple of cms today, Tues, Wed, Thurs - so those will all stay around, imo. Then there's Friday... It's like the afternoon before a big date when you're a teenager, isn't it? You've chosen your outfit, don your hair, nothing to do but wait... wait... wondering how it will work out... will this be it, will this be The One?

Yes, I didn't word mine well, will nip back and edit - it's the type of precip that's computed rather than reflected from actuality.

To be fair to the Met Office, iirc the warnings were for "unlikely" but "very disruptive", and the wording stated that there was great uncertainty as to where and how much snow might fall. The warnings are for potential disruption, rather than for how-much-snow, so the warning was accurate, imo. They were flagging up the entire region to be aware that there *could* be heavy snowfall anywhere in the region - never claiming there would be.

The radar doesn't show actual type of precipitation - it shows what the computer thinks the type of precipitation is. I spent ages thinking it was totally accurate as a reflection of what was actually falling but it isn't - plenty of times it's claimed one thing and we've had something different. It has its uses, but like everything, not to be taken as gospel or relied upon 100%... Intermittent snow furries all morning, mostly in bright sunshine, here in Telford

XC has a forecast for Monday next week for us to get over THIRTY CM of rain...??? I think the software is a little 'tired and emotional' at present

Would definite large flakes here and there in the otherwise clear morning air in Telford do you for "further west"? Not "snowing" as such but as you gaze out, there are a dozen flakes a minute, then it eases back for a few minutes then it swirls around again. I can feel it, coming in the air today! (Phil Collins earworm a free gift for all our readers )

I wish someone in there would explain the use of "correction" - because if it means the models said A, then switched to B, then changed back again to A, then saying the models have corrected to A would be perfectly fine... I *think* that's what they mean - most of the cases I've seen seem to be that situation, but nobody ever actually explains it, do they?

Well, you are in my mind now, anyway Nicky the Shepherd, they call you... Watch it, though, or I'll come and knit them all up some night...

No idea, sorry, but no worries, we'll just all assume you have sheep and thus it is a nickname

I love the webcam up the Long Mynd Gliding Club - look at this for a beautiful evening... It's here, if anyone wants it https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IUNITEDK77