[Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December]

Thanks Phil, much appreciated.

[Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December]

With disagreements in the modelling of the Friday storm it does throw doubt on the what the later frames show covering the weekend onwards.

There is some uncertainty where and how the jet is modelled later this week.Does the energy split,does more go north or south-will the pattern flatten out as the ECM shows later?

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

or is some idea of heights trying to link to our NE really that far off evolving?--GFS

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1921.png

but then the energy is too much further North and we topple into mid-latitude blocking.

The outsider at the moment is Pressure rising towards Scandi and cutting off the troughing into Europe.This could happen if we have a break in the jet flow to our North and allow ridging to fill the gap.

http://176.31.229.22...nh-0-192.png?12

T192 on GFS shows the vortex a lot weaker around Svalbard but as soon as GFS enters the low resolution the pattern reverts to type.

Just some thoughts as what could happen post T120 -144 after that deep low passes.

So are we waiting for this low to pass to kind of get a picture of what will happen from next weekend and beyond?

If so can you explain to a newbie like me why please?

Thank you.

[Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December]

for xmas day the models changed again santa still might bring a surpise!! still a long way in f1 !!!

Sorry to be so thick but is that showing a raging Easterly?

Cheers.

[The Far North Of England Regional Discussion]

Alza.

When did you have one day of falling snow in 2011/12?

[Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December]

I personally find that 16-30 day outlook often covers a number of potential options.

If the models can't be relied upon at that range why should the MetO 16-30 day outlook be taken with any degree of seriousness?

Very frequently in this thread we are advised not to take anything too seriously what may or may not occur in FI, so why do the MetO produce a forecast for this range?

It does flip flop and I've seen it do it which again brings into question why produce such a forecast in the first place.

[Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December]

Don't look too much into what the met office are saying. They are basing there 15-30 day forecast simply on the models. If by sunday the models start hinting at bitterly cold easterlies in FI, I guarantee by tuesday the met office would hint at 'possibility of it turning much colder from the east later in the month'...

The charts aren't showing us exactly what we want to see, but its early days and this time next week we could very well be looking a classic set-up developing Not saying it will, but the models can change very quickly.

Quite agree with this.

The models don't give any indication with any degree of accuracy what will happen 10 days from now, so why people get hung up on a MetO outlook stating what will happen 4 weeks from now is folly.

In fact at the risk of incurring some wrath, why the MetO persist with this 16-30 day outlook is beyond me knowing what we all know about modelling and FI etc. A 16-30 day outlook would be fine for the Spanish MetO in the summer months as the weather is pretty constant. As we all know, here in Britain things are not the case.

[The Far North Of England Regional Discussion]

TWS.

What are your opinions on GP/BFTP's thoughts of possible NE/Easterly influences in say about 4 weeks time?

I ask you as I have been lurking on this site for about 4 years and these guys do interest me with their thoughts, but I don't know what their verifications stats are - and I have followed your posts for the whole 4 years!!

Cheers.

[The Far North Of England Regional Discussion]

Newbie alert :w00t:

Going to head up to Asda in about 15 minutes or so, so will experience some pretty hefty gusts no doubt. The wind appears to be picking up again now after a lull for much of the afternoon.

What's this about a possible snow event over the next 24-36hrs?

Keep safe everyone, however the models are suggesting we could be in for round two next week.

[Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December]

Thanks Nick, I don't know why I haven't signed up sooner to be honest!

Funny how the teleconnections are almost saying one thing 'should' be happening but the models are hell bent on saying something completely different.

[Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December]

Slightly off topic so apologies in advance!

First post but been visiting for ooh about 4 years now, mainly in winter it has to be said!

Very green at all this and a lot of respect for the Murr's, Nick Sussex's, John Holmes's to name but a few. You all do a brilliant job at keeping novices like me abreast of what's going on and what we might expect.

Anyway back on topic now and I have to say a very interesting and exciting period ahead in terms of model watching. I have to laugh at how in the space of a week we have gone from a zonal express to something a little more interesting. If the situation can change so much in such a short space of time I think it's possibly best to keep an open mind as to what the models have in store for us in the days and weeks ahead.