[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

17 minutes ago, Vee89 said:

Have been following this with way too much interest. Living low lying, by the coast, any snow always seems to fall as sleet/rain. From my limited understanding, this looks like we might get proper snow even on the coast this time.. someone please tell me I might be right

I think you'll be just fine

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

Ladies and Gentlemen i give you the UKMO

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

UK at 144 looks superb - just need to see the 850's for sure

I wouldn't worry about the 850's, I'd bet my house they are cold

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

1 minute ago, tynevalleysnow said:

I will try. MetO app has us for constant heavy snow from Friday night to the ending of the forecast. If they are right on top of what’s here now it will be epic. On a side note it’s very ironic that while the snow conditions across the Pennines and Scotland are as good as ever the ski centres have to close for covid!

Yeah that's absolutely terrible for them, seen some pictures fron the Highlands, looks amazing up there. 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

21 minutes ago, tynevalleysnow said:

I think we could all see some memorable snowfall in the next week. ECM snowfall maps have 85 cms here for a weeks time and we currently have around 25cms before the main action gets going! Exciting times ahead for us lot!

You will have to get some photos up, think you'll be buried up there

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

20 minutes ago, Fairweather Teessider said:

Just seen the set of GEFS for the north east on the " Southern " thread. I don't know how to post but just WOW...... We seem to be getting some recognition from the south for once!! Might finally get some snow in Teesside this time round!

Here is what Fairweather is referring to, these are pretty extreme to say the least

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

4 minutes ago, gazzac69 said:

Another meto warning for rain - but look at the last sentence regarding snow on sat

Updated: 10:30 (UTC) on Wed 3 Feb 2021

Further details

Periods of heavy rain are expected across northeast England during Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and into Saturday. Some large rainfall amounts are expected with 20-40 mm falling widely, and 60-80 mm in a few places, mainly on east-facing slopes. Some drier interludes are also expected at times. Following recent wet conditions, this heavy rain may bring some flooding, particularly to lowland areas, whilst higher ground is more likely to see snow. On Saturday, snow becomes more likely than rain with time as conditions turn colder.

It certainly looks like by the middle of Saturday conditions turn a lot more favourable

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

We had a debate along these lines yesterday. Personally I struggle with accepting the para for two reasons.

We don't get to see where it sits within the para ensemble member.. we could be seeing tweeted runs to support testing 

Secondly.  It's parr and test.  If it was ready then why keep the legacy GFS going. 

I think someone said that they wanted the para running for 30 full days and something went wrong half way through, so its had to be started again for the full 30 days. May of dreamt that though

There's really nothing in it between the two tbh

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

5 minutes ago, DCee said:

Respectably I disagree.

Just going off the facts. I'd still bet on the ECM over the GFS, but its such a tricky situation, who knows. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

2 minutes ago, DCee said:

Writing is on the wall im afraid, the GFS is king at picking up these spoilers.

The ECM has been way behind all season and I fully expect all other models to sniff out the same as the GFS, the low simply doesn't have enough forcing from the north to move south.

Verification stats would say otherwise, as has been posted numerous times. ECM is still the king. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Believe its been quite wobbly also.. Had its good and bad days, like every model does.. But think GFS still has better verifying stats than its new replacement.

Good test for it here then, its a belter of a run. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

What is GFS (P) verification like within 7 days?...still seems very knife edge stuff.

 

Tbh I'm not sure, i Don't have a link to the verification stats. You would like to think its better than the Gfs, seeing as it's meant to be replacing it, i believe. 

 

At 186hrs, the whole country is still bitter

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

GFSP is great for all, chalk and cheese to the original GFS

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Gfs is going to be slower in clearing that low here than the 0z

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

I'd be more worried if we didn't have Mogreps (you'd imagine) GFS, GEFS (mostly), GEM, and it looks like the UKMO onboard. Of course the ECM could be right, but I'm betting against it currently. 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

28 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Why don’t people just focus on the snow chances for this week instead of focusing on FI. We know literally 3-5days if FI right now,

minor warming under way and a split - models will get worse before they get better.

don’t worry what they say for next week because it’ll change a lot.

This is so true. I've stopped looking at every run (granted, home schooling plays a part)  but it is only worth comparing 12z to12z or 18z to 18z, gives a much better analysis of what's going on.

 

Anyway its bleaching it down here, has been a few times recently I'm off to enjoy that. 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

Snow here now, lying without any problems 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

2 minutes ago, Bridgeport Harrison said:

A football game in Scotland has just been abandoned because of heavy ....................................rain..........urgh

Dew points and temperature in Livingston are higher than here though, wouldn't worry too much about that. 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

Definitely turning sleety here now, noticeable change in the last few minutes

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

Was always meant to start off sleety, even up here, can't see any issues as the night progresses though 

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

18 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Models always seem to underplay and struggle with convective snowfall and streamers tbf.

Living in the North East, I've very rarely, if ever seen a model get convective snowfall off the North sea right. Always underplayed. 

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

Mean looks decent for early next week to me, an improvement for sure

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

16 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

 

Not this old chestnut again. 

Parts of Edinburgh got two inches of settling snowfall with 850HPA temperatures of -2 to -4 the other day! @Kirkcaldy Weather already mentioned this I think - from the North Sea! 

Those snow showers even reached the West Coast of Scotland to sea level...from the North Sea! 

There are many more snow parameters than just 850HPA’s as we all know.

Let’s just see what happens rather than writing everything off five days before a potential chart becomes reality - surely as a snow/cold lover you hope for the best rather than always expecting doom/worst outcome!  

100%. I live at 270 metres above sea level in the North East and i can guarantee we do not need - 10 850's here for snow. Many places further inland with limited altitude don't either. On the coast i agree it may be that lower 850's are needed, especially when the winds are blowing in off a relatively warm sea. 

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thats what i expected ecm to show!!!maybe it will pick it up closer to the time!!

Could end up somewhere in between, which wouldn't be all bad. Guess we'll find out with a bit more certainty in the next few days

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Not even -7 850s are giving snow showers!!now i know the north sea is warmer than normal but that is truly shocking!!if gfs 18z shows the same as the 12z run then i am expecting a slightly better run from ecm in the morning!!

Gfs has plenty of snow showers piling in?