Weatherwatcher

Hurricane Rita part 2: http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=20773

Evacuations are completely correct as she will probably land as at least a cat2 with floodling likely but a lot of people who have left will be relatively unaffected unlike with a cat5. IMO this sort of situation gives more weight to the band of people who say "i'll always sit these out" due to the media hype and now the likely much weakened Rita making landfall. Yes, some areas will see a lot of damage, areas that are prone to flooding, but wind wont be as bad as anticipated 24 hours ago.

Looks like she is falling apart but there's still some hours left. Makes me wonder if anyone will take an evacuation seriously again there as many are talking of 175mph winds and now COULD get 125 max

She seems to be very ragged now. Dry air has got to her from the western side by the looks of things and the eye is quite weak. Reports of cat 3 winds but the pressure is still in line with a cat 4.

Anyone's guess

Well once the outer eyewall reaches the inner eyewall it should overcome it and the EWR cycle will then be complete. Then Rita will have time to restrengthen before landfall. It's bad news if you're in Louisiana I'd suggest.

294 URNT12 KNHC 222219 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 22/22:11:00Z B. 25 deg 58 min N 089 deg 39 min W C. 700 mb 2326 m D. NA kt E. NA deg nm F. 054 deg 124 kt G. 312 deg 019 nm H. 913 mb I. 9 C/ 3065 m J. 19 C/ 3049 m K. 15 C/ NA L. OPEN E M. CO14/35 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 11 MAX FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 21:24:10 Z Just two hours ago it was C018-48 The outer eyewall seems to be contracting fairly rapidly.

She just needs to wind herself up again which could take a few hours but if she can fight off the predicted shear and get over that warm eddy she has a chance of going sub-900 again.

lol They shouldnt let these Geordies go on holiday to the Bahamas in peak hurricane season.

000 URNT12 KNHC 221948Z VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 22/1913Z B. 25 DEG 44 MIN N 89 DEG 13 MIN W C. 700 MB 2329 M D. NA E. NA F. 43 DEG 133 KT G. 309 DEG 10 NM H. 913 MB I. 13 C/ 3059 M J. 20 C/ 3044 M K. 16 C/ NA L. OPEN NE-SE M. C018-48 N. 12345/7 O. 1/1 NM P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 37 MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

Pressure down to 914, from 915mb after the EWR. Eye looks to be clearing and intensity estimates are increasing. She could be setting herself for round two, an even bigger shot at taking the no1 spot rather than settling for no3, with an even greater windfield this time.

URNT12 KNHC 221127 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 22/11:10:10Z B. 25 deg 07 min N 088 deg 12 min W C. 700 mb 2287 m D. NA kt E. NA deg nm F. 040 deg 133 kt G. 304 deg 009 nm H. 907 mb I. 11 C/ 3062 m J. 27 C/ 3064 m K. 5 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. E03/20/16 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.03 / 1 nm P. AF307 1618A RITA OB 23 MAX FL WIND 159 KT NE QUAD 09:16:30 Z OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STADIUM EFFECT -- TOP OF WESTERN EYEWALL BRIGHTENING AS SUN RISES EYE IS CLOUD FILLED BELOW FLIGHT LEVEL Yeah, think we are seeing the effects of an EWR

The more Rita tracks towards LA rather than TX the longer she will spend over the vital GOM heat loop which is keeping her at such intensity.

URNT12 KNHC 220942 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 22/09:12:20Z B. 24 deg 55 min N 087 deg 55 min W C. 700 mb 2245 m D. NA kt E. NA deg nm F. 303 deg 134 kt G. 228 deg 010 nm H. 902 mb I. 14 C/ 3068 m J. 29 C/ 3057 m K. 8 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C18 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF307 1618A RITA OB 18 MAX FL WIND 165 KT NE QUAD 05:34:00 Z STADIUM EFFECT LIT BY MOONLIGHT AND BY LIGHTNING WITHIN EYEWALL Oh how it would be great to see that but NOT have to experience the winds of the eyewall of course!

I have read briefly about solar activity having influence on our climate - eg solar flares, but I am a novice. However, I do believe that this science is definitely going to be a big part of our future climate research and will become more mainstream as intelligence grows. Talking of the chances of two Bahamas majors in a month, perhaps we will see a Bahamas season regularly, as we see the Cape Verde season.

BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUING TO DEEPEN... ...NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN ON RECORD... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 898 MB...26.55 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...898 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

668 WTNT63 KNHC 212351 TCUAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD... DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED... WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB. FORECASTER STEWART

"Max Mayfield just said on KTRK 899mb and that the dropsonde had gone crazy because the winds were "just that strong"." That's what I've heard guys from an American message board.

If she sustains cat 5 for long enough the storm surge will be as ferocious, that's the worrying thing. She is moving fairly quickly so there won't be that much time to weaken once she gets close to landfall.

Think we need to bear in mind the shelf will mean as she appraoches the coast Rita has less and less ocean mass to draw energy from. Being such a powerful system, this could have an impact and dare I say it weaken her slightly, but hey, I;m no expert.

I believe they are particularly strong thunderstorms, possibly tornadic cells.

Well Dallas is quite a way inland...and I know a lot of evacuees are heading there so you shouldn't see the very worst of the storm. I'd still expect some significant rainfall. Hurricanes normally weaken when they hit land.

Can anyone see what I think are vortices in the eye? I think only seen with majors.

Surely she's just wrapping convection round herself? :blink:

This is pretty exciting (sad?!) just watching how quickly Rita is strengthening but thoughts go out to all those in TX. How strong can she get? Doesnt she have two full days left without any land intervention with the warmest waters to come?