Relativistic

Let's go for 14.7C.

An interesting article fom the BBC this morning. Essentially, experts at the University of Reading have developed a model based on the distribution of melt ponds in the Arctic which tries to predict the sea ice minimum come September. The model predicted the minima in 2014 and 2015 to a good degree of accuracy, and it is not predicting a record low this year. Melt ponds suggest no Arctic sea-ice record this year - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36560548

Most of the country is running above average at the moment for June, in fact the CET is nearly 2C above the 61-90 average. It's currently looking very possible that this anomaly will persist through to month's end. So the above anomaly chart may actually be implying conditions close to average for July and August.

If you use the CET, the warmest 30-day period ever is held jointly by the periods beginning on 22/6/1976 and 24/7/1995, both with a mean CET of 20.4C. In fact, to separate these two, you have to go to 3 decimal places. The 1976 spell becomes 20.373C, and the 1995 spell becomes 20.367C, but since the data are only recorded to one decimal place this is meaningless anyway. The next Summer to creep in was 2006, when the 30-day period beginning on 30/6/2006 recorded a CET of 19.8C (rounded from 19.75C). The reason July 2006 became the hottest month on record is due to the timing of the hot spell, almost exactly coinciding with a calendar month. The only other Summers to record 30-day periods of over 19.5C were 1911 and 1983.

Yes, certainly different to most recent Junes. The period 1st-10th June has produced some markedly cool periods over the last few years; the years 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 are all good examples. In fact, just last year, and in stark contrast to 2016, the CET to the 10th was just 11.8C. The last time we were warmer than at present was in 2004, when the CET was running at 16.6C to the 10th, and the warmest recorded such period was a little less recently in 1982, with a very warm figure of 18.6C.

Apologies for a totally uneccesary and as it seems mistaken post.

This seems to be your problem, anyone who isn't you is just wrong or weird! Why is it so hard to believe that others are different from yourself? The rest of your post is (mostly) sensible. But we don't cry, we just moan. We're British, some of us love a moan

Know exactly what you mean markyo, I've been scrubbing and cleaning all day today with the windows and doors wide open, and in this heat it's been really quite unpleasant. This sort of weather really isn't fun when doing anything physical. It's not just us who are ultra-soft freaks of nature markyo as some may try to make us believe, people in the local area here have been complaining a lot on social media about the lack of sleep and heat over the last couple of days. The temperature in my room hasn't dropped below 24C in days, horrible!

Most of us in this country are happy in 18C-20C in Summer clothing (some of us, myself included, are fine even in the low teens in Summer clothing). As you said, for most of the rest of the world, this is exceptionally cool for the time of year. They'd all be wearing jumpers and sweaters in such temperatures. So actually, perhaps we're the tough ones? Can I please request that you tone it down a little, your aggressive posts are becoming rather tiresome.

June 1846 was remarkable. The hot spell ended on the 23rd, with the period 23rd-30th June 1846 averaging just 15.5C, with the month as a whole still sitting head and shoulders above the rest (bar 1676) at 18.2C. The period 1st-22nd June 1846 is what makes my jaw drop though. With a CET of 19.2C, this period was as hot as August 1995! Granted, it occurred over a shorter time frame, but we're talking about early June and not the height of Summer. The next hottest for this period is 1858, with a mean of 17.4C, a full 1.8C below 1846. The average for all years for this period of 14.1C looks pathetic next to 1846. The third week of June 1846 (15th-21st) had a mean of 20.2C, making it by far the hottest third week of June on record. Miles behind in second place is 1893 at 18.6C, and third is 1989 at 18.4C. The average over all years for this period of 14.5C, again, looks feeble against 1846. If the heat had sustained itself through to month's end we could have been looking at one of the hottest months ever recorded. Definitely the May 1833/ December 2015 of the June months.

From my post above: Looks like we lost both of the 18C days on the 8th (17.8C) and 9th (17.6C) to downward corrections. With the final figure at 12.5C, May is placed at joint 306th place out of 358 months (going from coldest to warmest). Others were 1685 1686 1728 1737 1789 1829 1940 For Spring overall (March 5.8C, April 7.5C, May 12.5C) 2016 is ranked at joint 242nd out of 358 seasons (going from coldest to warmest). Others were 1703 1926 2006

Looks like we lost both of the 18C days on the 8th (17.8C) and 9th (17.6C) to downward corrections. Assuming the figure comes in at 12.5C, that would place May at joint 306th place out of 358 months (going from coldest to warmest). Others were 1685 1686 1728 1737 1789 1829 1940 Assuming the figure comes in at 12.6C, that would place May at joint 313th place out of 358 months (going from coldest to warmest). Others were 1775 1815 1865 1953 1990 2001 For Spring overall, assuming 12.5C, Spring 2016 would rank joint 242nd out of 358 seasons (going from coldest to warmest). Others were 1703 1926 2006 For Spring overall, assuming 12.6C, Spring 2016 would rank joint 245th out of 358 seasons (going from coldest to warmest). Others were 1774 1803 1863 1864 Will edit once we know the final May figure.

Not a new thing, the record high CET minimum for November was set in 1947 (13.5C). That year broke records all over the place. That sort of thing is certainly a dislike though! Disgusting stuff! At this time of year, I like cool, dry, sunny days best. The beginning of June 2013 was fantastic; sunny, bright and dry, with the CET running below average. I also enjoy depressions at this time of year. The first day of June last year was amazing, with the wind howling and the clouds rolling over, and a daily CET of just 9.3C!

Do you realise that the Summer described above would qualify for the exceptional category, the joint 6th warmest (with 1846) in the entire record?

July 2014 was a superb month for thunderstorms back in Chelmsford. It seemed for a while that every night would bring a belting storm, fantastic stuff! Also July 2013 was consistently warm/ hot, with a decent storm on my birthday (27th). On balance though, I'd definitely have July 2014 over July 2013. I'm not sure I've seen more lightning strikes in a single month than I did in July 2014. Edit: Funny how the Summer 2016 thread is currently being labelled as "hot" on the list of threads.

I was thinking that less in the way of rampant westerlies due to a much warmer Arctic would lead to more blocking scenarios full stop. So more Greenies and Barties? Edit: Knocker's post seems sensible.

Or we could just stick a load of sulphur dioxide into the Arctic stratosphere? It's getting to the point now where I think a positive feedback runaway is just around the corner, and if we don't do something soon the Arctic is stuffed. I am extremely worried for the Arctic, and feel like intervention is a must. 2016 is looking like an awful year for the ice, and perhaps it will be the trigger for something far worse.

12.1C.

I've got to say, in my opinion humid heat is far more unpleasant than dry heat. Humidity gets inside the house, so when you're sleeping (if you can sleep!) you'll wake up in the morning in a pool of sweat. When the heat is dry, this becomes less of a problem. I also find that a breeze on a humid day is far less effective in cooling you down than on a dry day, probably because the sweat on your skin doesn't get absorbed into the air as easily because the air is already holding more moisture, and so the sweat evaporates and is blown away at a slower rate.

Plenty of people at the park enjoying themselves. And look at that sky!

Don't worry, I'm not taking any offence But I'm telling you, the temperature in my room was stuck at 24C for about four days, even with the window open! (It doesn't open fully by the way.) I found it very hard to sleep. Anyway, the original point was that the weather by some people's standards is very nice today. It's beautiful out there, the Sun is out and it's looking lovely. Far from "anything but nice".

It certainly felt muggy here, the sleeping situation was awful. Perhaps we are weaklings when it comes to that sort of weather, Florida's climate is at the extreme end I would say. I'm sure most Floridians wouldn't be out and about in this current weather in Summer clothing (like I have seen a lot of people doing today) because it would be too cold for them. I guess that makes them weaklings. Everybody is a weakling in one way or another. In response to your update: Yes, I could not stop sweating over the weekend! Perhaps we have different ideas of muggy. And riding a bike by the way will significantly increase wind chill so is probably a more pleasant activity than most.

I can't believe you say this. It's beautiful out there! Blue skies, fluffy white clouds gently rolling over, the birds are singing, it's a lovely Spring day. For me it's perfect, the sunshine still feels warm on the skin but the temperatures aren't too high and the air isn't at all muggy, so very usable weather that doesn't make you very tired and very sweaty very quickly.

Impressive! Something interesting I noticed when looking at 18C days in May is that it seemed to me as if these had actually become less common during the 20th century (like cold records), although I didn't crunch any numbers to back this up. The weather seemed to have huge mood swings during the LIA.

I suppose it makes sense. With 245 years of data, one would expect a record warm Spring day approximately twice every five years, and the same goes for record cold days. Since 1996 (21 years of data), we have had ten record Spring days, so approximately a record warm day every two years (on average). Putting it another way, two in every four years as opposed to every five. So not actually a huge deviation from what one would expect. However, one record cold day in 21 years of data obviously is. I suppose this is a reflection of how much more the Arctic has warmed relative to other air masses, the extra warmth making it very hard to achieve record cold days. Less dramatic warming of air masses south of us has meant an increase in the number of record warm days, but not by much. Perhaps we may have seen a couple of record cold days in the last week of April had the Arctic been in the state it was, say, 50 years ago.