Relativistic

Just noticed an interesting run of Februarys from 1698 to 1740. For these 42 years not one February recorded a CET of below 2C. Three however managed exactly 2C (1709, 1711, 1721), but nothing could beat that. The current run of >2C Februarys started in 1991 (1.5C), so we will have to go another 17 years to break the current 42 year record. Let's hope 2016 is the year that puts an end to the current run!

I'll go with 6.0C.

I don't know why you think that, are you talking purely in term of snow? Because many of the 80's Winters were very severe (December 1981, February 1986, January 1987 probably being the best examples), and the more recent, brief run of cold Winters saw Northern Scotland's coldest Winter EVER (2009/10), the coldest December EVER (2010) by national records (2nd on the CET series), and the 2nd coldest March EVER (2013) nationwide (coldest in 130 years on the CET series).

It does seem that since solar activity started to increase four or five years ago after a long and deep minimum that, with the exception of Winter 2013, cold, wintry weather has featured less frequently in the UK. Perhaps as we start to slide down into a new solar minimum things may improve.

I know it's off topic but the discussion was about the Antarctic. Did you even read the rest of my post?

Or perhaps we are seeing the effects of a super Nino on the ice? Could well be messing with the weather patterns down there. It's worth noting that during this time of the 1997/98 El Nino ice extent was lower than it is currently. I am less optimistic for the Arctic though. It's been hovering at or around the lowest on record for a long time now.

This year will be remembered mostly for November and December, both months being extremely mild and very wet. However, I think July was also an extremely interesting month, and one that deserves mention. Not only did it start off extremely hot (breaking, somewhat controversially, the highest July temperature ever recorded - 36.7C at Heathrow Airport), but the last week of that month was the 8th coldest on the CET record, and the coldest since 1920. Not only that, but we got the 5th coldest July minimum ever on the CET record on the 31st, which I think is astounding in itself. That cold record was achieved at a time one could argue was the least favourable time for it to have occurred. So July was a month of incredible contrast. Due to this incredible swing, the drop in the CET from the first half of the month to the second half was the 10th largest on record for any July; there was the 3rd largest difference between the highest and lowest daily average for any July on record; and the largest range between the highest maximum and lowest minimum for any July. So overall, an amazing month. I hope he doesn't mind, but I took these stats from a post that Born From The Void made in the July 2015 CET thread (page 11). You can view the original post here:

See Roger's post at the bottom of page 7: Certainly looking at the ensembles and the potential longevity they show (although I'm still being cautious here), we could well do it.

The model thread is a wonderful place to be at the moment, I can't get away from it! It is moments like these that make it a great time to be a weather enthusiast, so much positivity about and prospects for cold are the best they have been in years. Long may it continue!

Agree with this. The way I see it there really is only one way to counter warming and that is to geoengineer. And given that we are very capable of effective geoengineering it makes me wonder why we aren't doing it. Which leads me to think that governments are using climate change as a means by which we can phase out fossil fuels. No bad thing, but if things really are going to become as catastrophic as they are predicting, with many people dying due to extreme weather events, surely geoengineering has to be considered?

What about this? http://www.intellectualventureslab.com/invent/introducing-the-stratoshield This is relatively very cheap, and it's not so much a case of throwing dice as some other solutions are because all we are doing is what a volcano does when it erupts. However, there is no loss of life, no ecological impacts, no one has to be evacuated, etc. (AFAIK). I agree with Ian here, Governments need to stop faffing around and start doing something. These climate summits seem to get us nowhere.

Nope. The lowest guess in March 2013 was 4.4C and that month was 2.7C.

Unfortunately, I don't have the know-how (yet) to determine what the next mildest 31 day Winter period is, but I would imagine that it is some way below 9.7C. Surely nothing has come close to that?

What?! I don't believe it. December confirmed at an astonishing 9.7C, a full 1.6C above 1934 and 1974. May 1833 has lost its crown as the most ridiculously anomalous month in the CET series. This month was warmer than November 2015, the third warmest on record, and would rank as the second warmest November ever, let alone December. Mind-blowing. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

I'll nudge mine down a tad to 6.5C, assuming that that's possible without penalties.

I can't think of anything better.

Thanks.

I don't think anyone should fret. Not yet anyway. Looking at the EWP, recent rainfall amounts across England and Wales don't at all look unprecedented. In fact it looks quite normal. There are a couple of distinct peaks in that graph (1760s and 1870s) where things look worse than they are today! (Granted, this data doesn't reflect local rainfall totals). As for temperatures, one only has to look at the CET series, particularly the Little Ice Age, to see that extreme temperature swings have happened in the past. Freak months quite like this one are not a new thing either. May 1833 sits a full 1.2C above second place for the warmest May, and October 1740 is a full 1.1C below the second coldest October. Such freak months have happened before, and will happen again. For now, I wouldn't worry. Give it 20 years and we shall see where we are at.

May I ask what you mean by step change?

I didn't find last Winter too bad actually. In Birmingham, the canal past the university was frozen on and off for a few weeks in late January and early February, and there were plenty of days of falling snow (although always melting after a day or two). I know the canal is completely still but at least temperatures were consistently low enough for it to stay frozen. Not a stonker of a Winter, but definitely not the stinker that this Winter is shaping up to be.

I think I'll up my guess. I'll go for 8.5C.

People are always seeing "trends" in the models but it's *ALWAYS* in FI. Nothing on the horizon at the moment. When something comes within five days I'll believe it, otherwise, I'll just keep telling myself that this Winter is a horror show and will continue to be for a long time. Keep your expectations low. No disappointment that way.

That cold spell in 2012 was actually one of my favourites. Last five days of January and the first ten days or so of February were very cold. Had a few ice days in Essex, and for a couple of nights in a row we had temperatures down to -10C. Lying snow stuck around for over a week, and the ground was frozen for ages. I remember the air being really dry, so even when temperatures were well below zero there was only a hint of frost. Those easterlies were very bitter. Quite an interesting spell. The CET was subzero for half of that month! Overall, very enjoyable. Thank you Siberian High!

We had lying snow for around a week at the end of March 2013, and that was only a 4-5 inch fall. I remember it being light still at 7pm with a good covering of snow outside for a fair few days. Colder parts of the UK probably saw it lying for much longer.

The days following Christmas day last year were very anticyclonic if I recall correctly. Clear blue skies, some fantastic frosts, and a lot of ice about. Definitely nothing during 2013-14. 2012-2013 had a frosty spell at the beginning of December, with a beautiful frost countrywide on I think the 12th. Before that, mid-January 2012 had a five day antocylonic spell. This is about as long as my memory of weather events goes back in detail, so I have nothing to compare these spells to before this. How frequent were such spells in past decades?