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Kent Clipper

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    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Snow amounts across Kent will depend on how much of a continental low level feed we pull in as the system arrives. The GFS 6z pulls up some briefly less cold uppers after the initial snow event turning things back to rain for a while before the cold undercut from the west as part of the system pulls away.

    Fortunately it looks as if most precipitation is in association with the leading edge (lasting 2 or 3 hours) before a brief less cold blip (with hopefully little or no precipitation in the afternoon. By evening we could well see further light falls from the wrap around before a very cold and icy night.

    Its very exciting.

     

     

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Kent Clipper

    3 hours ago, Coopsy said:

    I had a slightly awkward meeting with a manager at work probably about about 16/17 years ago. An expensive (0898?) phone number kept coming up on my work phone and they thought I was calling porn lines. Turns out it was the weather line phone number. I think they were so relieved they weren’t working with a sexual deviant that they just let it go

    I still remember the no. 0898 500 402 !!! ( how sad am i lol) I became quite addicted to calling it, especially in the winter of 95/96 when there were countless snow opportunities in the pipeline 

    • Like 1

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Upper air parameters are virtually identical to the Kent rainfest we experienced earlier in the week. The difference this time is we have very light breezes  (less than 7mph) between the boundary layer and 850Pa that is preventing mixing through the layers. After 9pm we pick up to a 11-13 mph ENE'ly between 950-850, which increases the risk of mixing out and the likelihood of more rain in the mix. A fascinating couple of hours ahead. The radar looks tantalising !

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kent Clipper

    This is the 500Hpa convective snow chart the Kent Crew have been waiting to see.  A kink in the ENE flow on the NW convective quadrant of a deeper more discreet cold pool over NE France.

     Its getting into the semi reliable now, 120 hours.

    Finally after what feels like weeks of waiting we can finally start pinning the tail on the donkey here in the snow starved SE.

     

    image.thumb.png.895b4137b8a005a6c7a833a347c834e1.png

     

     

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kent Clipper

    2 hours ago, Ice Day said:

    Really good run so far, out to 150 and heights building nicely over 'Griceland'.  Any other winter this place would be in meltdown for these charts, but this year things are a bit different!

    image.thumb.png.f61d8fef1154c620c08b283e5bb8221a.pngimage.thumb.png.95701a53e776482447cba24bc9c26700.png  

    We have been bitten so many times and rightly we are still slightly cautious, the atmosphere is electric though. We are poised with champagne bottles in hand and fingers on the cork. If we are heading into easterly territory most of us would like just a couple of degrees shaved off those uppers before we pop that cork and get the party started.  FWIW a similar thing happened in the lead up to the late November 2010 event. For a number of days -7's were consistently being progged. A few runs started to drop in the odd pool of -10c in the North Sea, it grew and the rest is history. 

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kent Clipper

    Another long day of model watching ahead. I really need to get out and distract myself with something else for a while. 

    This weeks slack self generating cold pool continues to excite with a host of marginal possibilities providing all sorts of wintry opportunities. What isn't being spoke about too much is the likelihood of some very low minima and freezing fog. Always a nice measure of winter cold.

    Last night a surprise hail shower thanks to this set up provided me with a nice covering of white at 1am.

    The new year easterly is gaining momentum and this is great but we really do need a fresh injection of arctic air if we are going to set the North Sea Snow shower convection machine into operation, and by this I mean 850's of -9 or colder. We are not far off and only small downward adjustments will get us there. Next weeks eastern based wintry showers as things stand are not going to cut the mustard after this weeks marginal possibilities. Snow lovers will be demanding more ! 

    Indeed next week could even become a little less cold due to the maritime mixing from the North Sea. (one to be aware of).

    Further south we look to the NE for cold upper air generated snow showers but we are also looking towards the SW for an attack that could provide a significant snow event and in this set up 850's of -1c or less are required if we draw in a direct continental ESE'ly feed. The risk with this is less cold southerly air pushing in ( a la demise of the 2018 BFTE).

    Lots of excitement and up to 168-192 all is good. ! 

    Personally I would like to see this cold pool stagnate for a few days longer, get in a NE'ly, dig a trough into Scandi, retrogress the mid atlantic high to Iceland and let mother nature do the rest. Not too much to ask for is it ! 

    image.thumb.png.6e4eb43668322e6be50dd3f949681c9a.png

    • Like 5
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    Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kent Clipper

    Its  as you were. The cold spell is arriving here in the far SE as Storm Bella takes her stormy winds with her. A drop from 9.1c to 7.8c in the past hour...anyway back to the all important models.

    KInks indicative of troughs are already starting to show up this morning that will no doubt keep the atmosphere electric in here for a good few days ! 

    We will learn a lot about how the atmosphere behaves in the next few days. A slack, low pressure dominated self generated mid winter UK cold pool. Its the stuff of dreams. 

    GFS 48 - discreet secondary feature in the flow

    image.thumb.png.6a54d07f3c9ab38309b4aa639ba880b2.png

     

    GFS 72 - Kink (trough) Close to the borders

    image.thumb.png.f79c00675c81f697a43bbbda082443ea.png

     

    GFS 96 hours - Some sort of trough feature clearing the south coast.

    image.thumb.png.7e7674cf31eb7e4c529e9ee7838db804.png

     

    GFS 117 hours - Something in the channel and something edging into Scotland.

    image.thumb.png.6157906568f115e05daf92796da642ee.png

    • Like 17
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kent Clipper

    The 12Z EC Ens for Reading are trending ever colder. The median T2max now struggling around 2 to 3c on most days with sub zero minima on many nights. We are in an unusual an exciting position. This is a slow and steady burner. The old weather lore saying 'short notice, soon pass. Long notice, long pass' feels very apt at present. 

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn ECMWF Forecasts

    WWW.ECMWF.INT

    The 15 day wind vector plots are even more tantalising with a defintive and favoured N or NE flow @ days 7-13. 

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn ECMWF Forecasts

    WWW.ECMWF.INT

     

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