Greybird

A lot of comments about the GFS reliability, over the last few weeks. Well, perhaps the proposed improvements may be FI, have too wait and see. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/05/15/game-changing-improvements-in-the-works-for-u-s-weather-prediction/ The ECMWF may well end up having to play catchup.

But would the heat transfer be cut off long enough for that sort of recovery? Because the chaos that shuts the heat off may not be long lasting and with the current amount of heat stored already, in the Arctic Ocean, it would take decades to refreeze to that extent. Maybe a very bad analigy but think of a racing car/dragster accelerating flat out, with it's wheels spinning. It's course is going very difficult to mantain and the rear wheels snake about. A similar thing will be happening with ocean currents, with fluid dynamics at play here. The removal of heat being tranported to the Arctic will be very short lived, and just a blip of a giant eddy towards the new norm in currents. IF it happens at all I did state "may" and not would. It MAY never happen that way, thus is the nature of chaos.

Really guys, I think that the question of UK weather patterns is adding blinkers to a much more serious problem and "we ain't seen nothing yet". With the warming Arctic Sea, surely this is going to have a massive impact on Ocean Currents.The loss of the Polar Jetstream will also add to the Ocean Current disruption. This will most certainly affect weather patterns. We are entering uncharted territory here. We know more about the moon than than the oceans, especially the deep ocean. Past oceanic data is not really going to help forecast the changes to the currents, because the rate of change is happening so much faster than we can find in past records. The currents are going to flip about very chaotically before finding a balance. The chaos of the currents may even halt the exchange of heat into the Arctic for a while, allowing a refreeze in the Arctic that would give false hope to some, but as a consequence this would allow more energy to be stored in the Pacific and Atlantic. Then we would get a massive temperature gradient with a massive, strong Polar Jetsream that would bring hurricane force, distructive storms? Before convection finally takes firm control and the Artic Sea heats up even further and quicker than we have measured to date along with the last breath from the Jetstream.

My understanding is that it is the strength of emitted UV that influences the jetstream. Thus a high level of UV could be present even though overall energy out put is low and the reverse, low UV levels coupled with high overall energy output. edit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15199065

Hi John, re.your problem. Have you tried using a proxy service to access those pages. This will negate any cookie issues that your PC may have. Try one of these: http://zoekja.nl/proxy http://anonymouse.org http://boratproxy.com

I really think that it will be game on for us. We have very cold DENSE air pushing West at the same time saturated mild air pushing East. There is only really one way that this will go, The Atlantic push is going to go up over the top of the cold, this will happen overnight. The result of this will be a snowfest for all, including coastal districts. Including here, in Southampton, where all too often we miss out because of our wierd microclimate, a 1/2 inch here means that just a few miles in any direction there will be a couple of feet. But not this time, we will be joining in with the fun.