[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Good bit of eye candy ...to  watch that polar high develop ...pull south into russia, build and build and then be squeezed by the atlantic juggernaut

(remove the labels press animation rotate to polar view and sit back and enjoy!) 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php?lat=80.25&lon=79&ech=3&zoom=6&mode=1

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Both ECMWF and GFS  have struggled to forecast the low on Thursday. GFS blew it up as we expected by ECMWF doesnt cover itself with Glory either and still 3 days to go. Here are the last few runs on both to compare.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

UKMO HD brings that second low further north so although in FI still worth watching seeing to see if this gathers traction

[November 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2022-23 competitions]

8 hours ago, TillyS said:

I’m always a bit worried when people say ‘no chance’ because the UK weather has a tendency to confound.

When you say that the ‘CET is sliding down and down’ don’t we need to clarify two different things? The CET will slide down and down because it’s the end of November and we are coming into December. So it’s supposed to drop from here.

The question is whether the anomaly stays above or below 2.04C for the remainder of the year.

I think you’re right, that it’s unlikely. But it’s not certain.

x

Hi Tilly yes you are absolutely right and I was being a bit gung ho with this weekend's cold looking to become fairly established  in the GFS 18Z last night! We just need the cold snap to be short lived (which is a stronger possibility with todays runs as the Iceland high has receded south a tad ) and continuous SW flow in December to push get that 2.04 required. 

 

[November 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2022-23 competitions]

"The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the
anomaly must be higher than 2.04 for the remainder of this year."

No chance now! CET is sliding down and down 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

I think ECMWF is leading its younger brother GFS astray. Next few runs will soon sort this out. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Arpege is outrageous by Friday morning now as the snow comes south 

Has France closed its borders to snow?

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

You can see the difference between the 12Z GFS and 18Z GFS digging in much colder air behind low 2 with ECMWF keeping south in the cold for longer but less cold air behind shallower low

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

36 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Not looking good for snow in my neck of the woods unfortunately..

Your OK in teh welsh valleys  The models have finally got to grips with the major snowfall between France and Inverness sometime in the next 10 days.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

55 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

High over Scotland by Day 10. Bone dry Easterly with pretty average uppers to our East. I guess it's what comes next is key  

It could actually be very spring like up North, especially over Scotland

 

Yes not a flake or drop to be found  in these easterlies

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

The humidity therefore night temperatures will be important in predicting impact on health. I set up the Heat Health warnings when I worked as health lead at the Met Office after the 2003 European Heat wave and it was the night-time temperatures that mattered more. In France  those living above the high floors of tower blocks who  died as temperatures cooled from the ground up. The higher humidity meant that there were high min temps. So far the predicted humidity next weekend is very low  so although the temperatures are frighteningly high if the humidity stays low and there are no more than 2 nights in a row with minima of 22 then it may not be so catastrophic on health.

[Competition: How hot is it going to be?]

38.6 Heathrow Sunday 17th July

[Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.]

wow that's a central pressure of 912mb if this ever happens but at 210hrs its well into FI

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

The jet is off to the Med for Christmas

[Model output discussion - summer rolls on]

If ECM is on the right track for Sunday then the storm surge team at Met Office will be waking up as that low crosses east coast bang on a spring tide

[WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013]

While we wait for 18z could someone explain the factors required in N Hemisphere to keep the mid Atlantic block in place from Feb 6th as opposed to it toppling over us again?

[Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts]

I personally look forward to next week's weather. A possible record breaking low in mid Atlantic possibly below 920mb (which is the weather telling us that the NAO is not at all dead from SSW) and then secondary lows racing in causing severe gales in any area. The winter is far from finished and the word Blizzard could still be returning to this forum anytime after mid Feb because we simply don't know!

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

Could that monster low forecast by ECMWF GFS and UKMO break any records? With my glasses i make that a central pressure of 920mb!

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

New NEA for 0600hrs a definite upgrade

and NEA for 1200hrs Monday ...snow line ever so slightly westward

[Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards]

@Bluearmy - I was in a hurry, perhaps i didnt word it correctly and i dont have the experience as some on here but everyone has to start somewhere and im trying to give a constructive post on here but anyway, my reasoning as for highly regarding the GEM i think is fairly clear and justified - the developments off the coast of Canada (Should?) will have a knock on effect down here, whether the lows for example start taking a more northerly or southerly route the GEM could pick up on these better as they are modelled around the Canadian area so theoretically they should have a better grasp on whats happening which would help us pick up the potential for whether we will see a big undercut for example, or the lows barrelling across the atlantic (unlikely) - the GEM has in my opinion performed well this last week, and as we are downstream of them i will personally be regarding the GEM up there with the big guns at the moment.

i should also add that on the originial the darn pictures didnt come through on what was predicted and it seems to refuse with my editing to attach them now!

Ed Ed a very helpful post.

However I dont quite follow your logic that GEM is better because Canada should know its own weather better.

My understanding is that all models use the same global data and so it is a level playing field. It is also has to be a global forecast although each country chooses to increase the resolution over their patch. GEM therefore just have a better model this week. There is a forum topic of How the Models Compare at

Keep posting!

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

"Don't call me shirley" Precipitation can be modelled very well up to 5 days away, seeing as this is only 72 hours away, I think we should be fine in that respect.

I'm not so convinced of their accuracy even at 72 hours. When it comes to modelling snow I wouldn't trust any forecast beyond 36 hours particularly for Monday/Tuesday event that is changing with each run and Ian F is now thinking it will all shift west.

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

Saturday's snow (or no snow) event is In range of the NAE....together with the GFS pushing the low further south its not looking great for snow lovers.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).]

fantastic update Mr F, but the only thing I don't fully agree with is in regard to wide spread snow

The gfs if right, has led the way with this setup so we shouldn't discount it all together.

PS where is west is best these days? I hope he finds the time to come on here sometime as he was

Quite knowledgeable if I'm not mistaken.

I agree that this is a really good update. Like Thunderman I would be very nervous working at the Met Office regarding the possible snow this Saturday! If the rain is very heavy and there is a significant cold undercut surely that boundary between rain and snow is still totally uncertain and could be anywhere!

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).]

Just looked at the T144, T120 and T96 from the GFS all for Sat 12:00 pm. Each run shows the progressive drop in pressure over the whole of Northern Europe and rise in pressure over Iceland. The scandi high stays pretty much the same. The low to our SW in particular deepens and carrys more energy with each run so could become more nasty.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

for oxford north, selfishly I would just see sleety rain. So although im happy for the folks up north not to pleased for us down south.

I live just south of Oxford and on 19 20 21 Jan the netweather forecast is for a dewpoint of -1.4 winds of 53mph and 33cm snow.....all dreams of course...but nice ones!