[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

I hate how things usually always go wrong closer to the time. Seems to happen most times. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Metoffice

Have got me down for 38 hours of light snow 

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Ooh 850 improvements nice.

 

How can the 850s be so much lower without the front moving further south? 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

What those half assed dodgy graphics that come from some other weather source now not the MET office 

It will be yesterday's ECM

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

41 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

 

Has the 6z ECM moved south again? If so not good for Sundays snow I suspect 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

He has presented on BBC (look east) but now works for a private group. Have you ever see the convective weather site? Believe he is involved I’m with that and many others. He posts on here under @staplehurst ..perhaps if he gets time he will pop in over the weekend and update us on his views.  
 

Met warning looks like a direct lift of Euro4 to me... 

Oh my.. That is amazing and only until 1pm on Sunday. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Latest Hirlam at midnight Sunday ties in quite well with the neto warnings. 

 

 

 

 

We can dream 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just now, mattneal said:

Looks like it ties in pretty well if you ask me. Rest of ea and se is still under yellow

I would have thought London would also have Amber warning then and snow stretches to the SW of England (not the heavier snow). 

I hope it's right. I would take that in an instant. 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Oooh, look at all the white heading our way on Met O precip animation

 

Doesn't tie in with their warning and looks further west 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

13 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Yet again we see the extreme moderation of UHI in London. Not much in the way of lying snow on that chart.

Thats yesterday's 12 run 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

I see everyone posting the met app forecast. Is the neto weather app at all accurate? 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Most of the charts still look promising for our area and London in general, sure, it's not as much as some previous charts were showing but we'll still see something. Even with lighter precipitation we could still end up with 6 hours + of light snow.

I'd be happy with a small covering at least by Sunday evening. 

 

We don't tend to do well in streamers. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

Yeah I'd say 5-8cms by the end of Sunday evening 

Haha, I wish I had your optimism 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Have you seen UKV? Gives you snow Sunday morning .. it’s a bit far west compared to most models but there’s a chance 

Is thus modeling behind a paywall only? 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

6 Icon at 45 hours 

 

Still going at 57 hours

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

All at 42 hours 

Arome 

Aprege 

Hirlam 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Hirlam Sunday at 7 am. Looks completely different to other models. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Is Hirlam a good model? It seems quite a way further north then some other models? 

54 hours below. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Honestly its very hard to say, it may well do and then suddenly on the day jut much further west, or be more intense than forecasted. 

We saw an example of that last Sunday where upto the day the models have very little precip getting outside of the SW. In the end it spread way further east and far heavier.

Equally it could well work the opposite way.

My gut is that if it was to come in anyway, it maybe further west but also weaker, as there is quite a sharp undercut of cold air through Saturday night which I've known in the past to constrict precip quicker than the models expect. 

Still as I said before, it really could go either way and anyone who pretends to know is kidding themselves.

The only thing we can probably say with some confidence is the closer you are to the EA coast, the better, in both this and snow showers as well, unless you are lucky to be upstream from a streamer.

EDIT - btw there are more than a few hints on several global models for a Thames streamer to get going at some points, probably aimed slightly further north than usual with a near due easterly at times once past Monday evening. Also could well be banding snow lines moving through EA in general, both UKV and ARPEGE showed that quite well in their previous runs.

Thank you for your reply. I guess we'll have to wait and hope. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Really cool to watch on the 18z GFS the frontal system from the left over low exit to the south which draws in the frontal system over France into the SE and slowly northwards till the leftover low swings back S and then E which acts a counter balance and stops the front getting any further north.

Streamers are going to have to be very closely watched, regardless of what happens Sunday. Even in more modest easterlies such as Feb 05 they can kick start some locally quite impressive snowfalls, especially to those that are exposed to a ENE and later a due E airflow.

Hi Kold, do you think Sundays snow will keep correcting south and/or east? My location doesn't tend to do well in streamers so was hoping for something on Sunday. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

I'm beginning to think the Snow on Sunday is going to miss us. Keeps moving south and east. Will be in France by the time Sunday arrives. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Polaris said:

A definite move East on the latest FAX - so much so that only Suffolk, East Essex and East Kent likely to pick up accumulations from the front. 
 

Hopefully enough instability to bring those showers inland later Sunday into Monday. 
 

 

What's the best hi resolution model to use for Sundays snow? 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

Where abouts in NW London are you? I wouldn't be worried about any snow melting for our locations.

 

I live in Edgware HA8. Not far from you but Harrow is on a hill so probably better then here. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

14 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

Agreed, I've only found the snow melts more quickly as opposed to those outside the M25 get considerably more (but that's only 4 years experience, and i can count on one hand the snow events...). Still, I'm zone 4/5, it will be a little different right in the centre!

Even in this situation with temps so low? 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Still very good for snow for our region on Sunday on 6 GFS. Hope it doesn't miss us nearer to the time. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

ROUND 2