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Everything posted by Froze were the Days
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A tad nippy the last few nights as shown by my outside dripping tap... Nice to get these cold crisp sunny days with frosts but doesn't cut it if there's no snow (we've had a few episodes like this over the last few years)...it's like a Hawaiian pizza without the pineapple, a dartboard without a bullseye and the Chuckle brothers without Barry.
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More chance of me dating Maya Jama...I thought Mr Hugo posted the other day the weak SSW had 'shuffled the pack' against northern blocking for the coming weeks? still a small chance but we haven't had a decent easterly since 2018 though Feb 2021 had one which was cold enough with decent dp's but only coastal districts of Essex and Suffolk saw any snow (for once my location). I've seen some polystyrene balls
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Latest in the MAD thread according to Matt Hugo whom was really banging the cold drum (amongst others) for the 2nd half of Winter is that partly a displaced SSW (didn't think we were any where near one) has shuffled the pack not in our favour hence mild for the foreseeable after this 'cold' spell...well there usually is an excuse from even the experienced ones, if not a SSW not working for us, it's the MJO stuck in the wrong phase or Indian dipole stuck in a positive phase...the excuses go on.
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So that's 2 winters running a SSW has done nothing?...wasn't there a minor one (a displacement) last February and we ended up on the mild side. You really can't win here in the UK. Somebody posted an anomaly 1970-2022 just before the winter which showed the deficit in the NH in days of falling snow and guess where was the biggest?...yep! NW Europe.
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UK winters: are they getting colder?
Froze were the Days replied to qwertyK's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Monthly CET's prove that they're not!...we do get the odd cold spell/snap from time to time whether snowy or not (mainly not where I live) and nothing unusual in that but these spells are soon offset by milder continuous spells soon after as we'll find out after this week - look how continuously mild it was from mid-December into the New Year. Without doubt getting milder. -
Moans, ramps and banter
Froze were the Days replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Never in the field of meteorology model watching was so little given to so many...we will view in the gfs, we will view in the ecm and ukmo and get cross model agreement, and then upgrades and downgrades, have fantastic ec46's and glosea monthlies and rock solid ensembles and still be left empty handed... the hunt for snow will go, we will never give in! Okay lets all go to lapland next winter -
ECM/UKMO showing nothing of the sort!...well down into France (It's the GFS for God's sake!") In the MAD thread some members are asking FRed (BFTP) if he see's heights growing into Scandinavia...might as well ask some seaweed with his track record...but as he's a 'coldie' he'll be telling us to batten down the hatches due to incoming blizzards in February.
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Very glum in the mod thread ...raging zonality after this much heralded cold spell which will equate to some frosts and sunshine (yay!) in this neck of the woods. So much for the meto forecast of a period of somewhat milder conditions and possibility of more block conditions come February again...from experience once we've had some form of cold in January and the Atlantic then ramps up it usually stays that way for most of the rest of Winter but then again Matt Hugo was saying this wasn't a normal winter and the second half of it looked very interesting in terms blocking scenarios backed up by Glosea/EC/CFS seasonal models. (I'll hold him and them to that)
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Well agree in part with Bullseye re February still standing firm but feel the important part is what happens after the cold spell of next week (though fairly cold currently). 'spells of rain and stronger winds' seems to be an increase of Atlantic activity as opposed to an 'interlude of slightly milder more unsettled weather for a time' - maybe just overreading? Yes El Nino/eQBO might play out differently to 2018/19...too much emphasis put on teleconnections now days in relation QBO, but we'll see, I'm forever the pessimist when it comes to UK and cold.
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Moans, ramps and banter
Froze were the Days replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That's not going to happen in London...you're getting carried away but yes colder than average for the time of year but not noteworthy but is anything now days? Cold icy spell December 2022 comes to mind.