Not sure if the METO forecast of 50/50 scenario will go 1 of 2 ways for the start of February, Easterlies or the typical south westerlies? just been running through my archives and have come across a couple of Februarys that followed mildish Decembers and Januarys. Archives have shown the UK have largely been under the influence of fairly stagnent area of HP or strong ridge from the Continent or Scandanavia and never 'tapped' into the source of cold air, the latest GFS looks similar and to a degree even the ECM, 2003 was an example which had a CET fractionally below normal. So to sum up that the weather can go 2 ways is largely incorrect, but wouldn't be at all be suprised to see the jet stream run out of steam or be displaced to our north or partly south but this doesn't mean we will be effected by cold weather. Only a thought.