summersnow

About 1 inch of snow here in Birnam/Dunkeld. Looking at Glenshee webcams, looks like it might get a bit of a pasting today.

Reality check! As I mentioned last night, keep in mind warm surrounding SSTs and not particularly cold Europe or Scandinavia. Any northern or temporary western blocking that plunges cold air over the UK is likely to be hugely moderated. In fact, the NH as a whole isn't particularly cold this winter and snow cover less than average in North America. This is probably having an effect on the overall pattern and more likely as a result to produce UK damp squibs! As ever, I hope I'm wrong and just pointing out the obvious.

Hi folks! I'm new to this forum but not particularly new to chart watching and model output. I don't claim to be any sort of expert but I have noticed a few key ingredients required for prolonged winter weather. I'm sure many here will agree that some of the key ingredients are simply not in place for prolonged cold and have'nt been all winter. The 3 main components IMO are cold SSTs, a cold continent and strong northern blocking somewhere directly (and not too far) north, northeast or northwest of the UK - none of which is (or has been) in place tis winter. If none of these variable is evident by this stage in the winter, prolonged cold will always be elusive. Different models will (as we've seen) often show promise, but will be continually scuppered by surrounding warmth. Pattern change, while not unlikely, will also be more likely to set up in such a way as to avoid bringing entrenched cold air across the UK. Unfortunately, the North Atlantic is mostly warmer than average as is the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, the Baltic and the Barents Seas. There is a small cold anomoly east of Iceland but it is swamped by the warmth around it. The continent has been cooling recently but is still far from cold. As a result of all of this, Azores and near continent HPs are likely to prevail in the short term. Meanwhile any northern blocking will probably set up in such a way as to plunge cold air into or close to regions that are already cold and most likely therefore skirt around northwest Europe. This is not to suggest, cold air won't get a look in, but I think our best shot at this is a prolonged spell of cool/cold zonality as some have already pointed out. Northern areas are more favoured for this and I suspect the south is unlikely to see significant snow for at least 10 days to 2 weeks. Even then, it will be reliant on a very favouable set up. So far, the MET O long range forecasts have been spot on and their 3 month forecast particularly good in predicting the dominance of the Azores HP. I would tend to favour this winter MET O related medium to long range forecasts as they have done well to date. The MET O has of course recently put out a probability forecast for 2 very different scenarios but I think recent runs by the main models have started to fall into line with a more zonal outcome. Of course, I hope I am wrong as I am as obsessed by snow as anyone else so here's hoping!