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snowice

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Posts posted by snowice

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, nick sussex said:

    We’re trying to build up our defences  against the Dark Force as in the Atlantic attack . The Death Star will try and attack the weak point of any blocking .

    Thats why we want that straight flow and block in a better position before Darth Vader and his sidekicks attack .

    Its crucial to have a solid start , if you see that bulge in the flow early and the block orientating more ne sw it’s easier for Vader to break through our defences.

    At that point the battle is almost lost .

    # Save Princess Leia ! 

     

    Is January Snowman the weak spot location wise lol southwest.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

    I’m afraid we’ve all seen this movie script before. 

    The inevitable chipping away of the cold spell has begun by a couple of the models. I expect this will now continue and we’ll be left with a few frosts if we’re lucky. 

    Hard to remain positive when you’ve see this painful process many time previously. 

    10 days out I don't think so half glass full myself.

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    36 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    As Bluearmy has pointed out, we can't see if there's a coupling with the ECM output because the strat charts aren't available. However, my bet would be that the ECM is seeing coupling and that's why it's throwing out the output that it is.

    I take your mind back to 2016 when all the experts were saying there was a strong disconnect when in reality the coupling happened very very suddenly and the output flipped to +AO (just like the UKMO and ECM have now).

    Often the simplest explanation is THE explanation. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it’s probably a duck.

     

    Could contain: Beak, Bird, Animal, Outdoors, Nature, Winter, Snow

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Mark Smithy said:

    There's no doubt that a mild breakdown next weekend is the favoured option in the models now. The ECM is particularly grim viewing for those of us cold lovers:

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, MapCould contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, OutdoorsCould contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Sea, Nature, Outdoors, Water, Atlas, Diagram

     

    6-7 days is still quite a long time and not all ensembles members agree with the mild option.

    I'd say 70:30 0r 80:20 that we're heading mild.

    Agree trends now for a few days of milder spell, will the cold come back for xmass??.

    • Like 2

    Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    Last minute miracles normally happen with the Atlantic moving in from the sw where they underestimate the strength of the block .

    Here it’s from the west with a bloated low  . I’d be shocked if the surface cold can last beyond Sunday unless the Arpege has pulled a rabbit out of the hat .

    Your in the right place for Miracles lol.

    • Like 4
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