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snowice

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Posts posted by snowice

    Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, chris55 said:

    There is an old adage on the Netweather forums....

    ”you only know the train is coming, when you can actually see the train” this stems from times looking at weeks of zonality trying to spot the change to an easterly...

    Right now, believe it or not, we have actually boarded the train. However, the train is one of the two carriage ones that’s a bit rickety, we are all on board but it’s not to everyone’s liking. Some are in the nice seats and some are standing only and this is causing a bit of bickering.  But we are on the train nonetheless.

    No doubt we are heading to our destination, hopefully to be transferred to the new intercity where we can all relish and enjoy the journey. But alas, the ride will be littered with unexpected stops and the occasional break down along with some periods of smooth running. We might end up at our destination of Arctic bliss or we could be subject to a bus replacement service...I’m quietly expecting the the former..

    And that is what makes this place so enjoyable  

    Your on the right track there

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowice

    6 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    Why are you (and others for that matter) looking for problems 264 hours away and beyond when anything within T+120 is up for grabs, and there a SSW in the offing?

    Agree it creates unnecessary pessimism however he is only commenting on the output ,but your right it's time for a half glass full approach.

    • Like 6

    Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    06z ensembles looking cold into the first week of January, certainly nothing notably milder is looking likely anytime soon. Averaging well below average from the 28th onwards with a few members turning very cold in the new year.

    Day 10 mean is also fantastic!

    DA2CD8E6-9C68-428E-8B32-1D7302E940B0.png

    2FC9F0B5-657B-4CD8-9197-AFB39C2D22B5.png

     

    3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    There is always one...

    anyway,the gefs mean out to day ten is still rock solid,infact,it's even better than the 00z

    check this out...

    gensnh-31-1-240.thumb.png.4a6b084169636c31ff9c1f4b357efe4d.png

     

    Looks like Squidward sponge Bob.

    Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The options on the table seem to be cold to varying degrees in the medium term .

    Which is a lot better than some of the horrors that coldies could have been subjected to .

    The run upto Christmas and the day itself also still has a degree of uncertainty in terms of depth of cold and the chance of any snow .

    Overall as much as I’d like to wheel out my crunchy snow and ice day alert, that has to wait but  the outputs are still very encouraging . :santa-emoji:

    Amber lights ready

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    What joy !

    After a week of model drama with the Channel Low and then the next one moving se we now have the infamous trigger shortwave around day 5.

    We need that to behave clear se cleanly and then we have a solid foundation to get to the easterly .

    What could possibly go wrong

    • Like 1
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