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One frame later (can post charts, am at work) and the whole thing ('blob of risk') has slipped SE - the South East and London forum will crash at this rate. I write with a smug (and hopeful grin)

Yey, here comes the IMBY gripe; possible Channel low and down in the SE, we will be taking sleet at best. May be taking a drive north on Sat. You guys north of London will owe us big if that plays out as it look it might. Anyways focus on the good stuff in the now (hopefully) reliable in regards to some low temps. Be nice to have a frost and some "fresh" air. Disappointed the models keep bouncing the SE between lucking in and being washed out.

Ha, Very true, really is an issue, I've not sought help, there nothing big happening this winter for me, only my wife having our first child with due date at 22nd December. I am not a believer in gut feels, but I hope that the pattern does change soon, if the cold pool stays cold, storms may start to slide more southerly rather than deepen and turn NW? JG

I may be miles off but; NW/SE split Wet/dull and very mild Euro dry settled Sw/w wind, long fetch Is a Bartlett setup now a real consideration? When is it considered such, only in hindsight, in effect a description of a past event? Are we now staring down the barrel of it? Seriously worried now. Not one frost it even cold morning yet down here.

Yes been in Bexhill all day. The shield did buckle for all of a few minutes to allow some wet flakes through. Otherwise wet.

Sleety Rain being reported in Herstmonceux by the other-half, Still nothing on the coast.

Black Clouds been over Bexhill all afternoon, seen nothing yet. I hope up inland just a little it is better but nothing being reported from the other half in Herstmonceux.

Just to help in this discussion, no flooding can have absolutly no effect on the earths crust. If one were to look at a cross section of the erath whilst the 'crust' may seem thin in pictorial from but in effect the crust ranges from 5–70 km (~3–44 miles) in depth and is the outermost layer. The thin parts are the oceanic crust, which underlie the ocean basins (5–10 km) and are composed of dense (mafic) iron magnesium silicate igneous rocks, like basalt. The thicker crust is continental crust, which is less dense and composed of (felsic) sodium potassium aluminium silicate rocks, like granite. The weight of a small amount of surface water has no effect on the massive forces at work. None. For example since the retreat of the glaciers, in the last ice age, there has been some 'rebound' effect on the land masses, partly due to elasticity of the material (rocks) themselves but also from the weight, Scotland is rising, at about maximum 1cm per year! If the entire weight of an ice age has such a small impact then it is quite clear localised flooding will have none, apart from anything even if the water were to run down through the surface levels, it will not permeate enough to have any effect on the crust itself. Though arguably large bodies of water could cause small localised erathquakes if a local fissure of fault, very near the surface were to be affected, think like fracking, very limited local effect. Hope that clears that up. back on track I post almost never and float between here and the model thread, the weather in bexhill has been awful today, just rain, heavy and light and not cold and not mild, dreek. I hope to see a snow flake or such this evening or tomorrow evening if there is any precip around, but I am not holding out any hope for this winter now, just for the depth of cold in the USA creating such a powerful jet stream. Jonathon

Haha, East Sussex vanished again? Thats the problem with being split in two. Think its too wet by the coast.

A little dusting here in Bexhill at work, nothing otherwise. Looks like a big non event here, I was exepcting so much more, was going well and then just fizzled out. grass not covered in anyway. In any case the Bexhill snow shield held firm, it did lose power and drop to about 50% letting in some flakes to blow around and settle on cars/roofs, but now full power has been restored we have a thaw. Wonder if home (burwash) will be better?

Righty, need to represent the east sussex contingent not on the coast. Here in Burwash temp -2.3 dp is -8. Its clear with some high think cloud to the west (obscuring the bright Moon). Very nice. Gritters went through about 730. Got logs in, got snow chains for the land rover ( like i would need them!), tesco has just delivered and i have the outside light on. LETS DO THIS! J.

Right first post of the season. Currently 1.8 C here, dew point dew point 2C. Could be colder. Desperate to see some of the white stuff.

good morning all. just had the landy out this morning. measured 18cm ( 7 inch in old money, on decking)in sheltered garden, at 930 this morning!!! has shrunk a little now, temp 0.8 damn it though dp still -4 some very light flurries here, very light though i think our total depth is helped by being ontop of the ridge here in burwash enjoy it!

yes a few powder flakes in burwash this morning, when i was out with the dog. now to stack all the wood dumped on the driveway before the main event! jon

I am sooooo excited! just finished moving 2cubic meters of wood off the drive to the wood store, one way to fight the cold and enjoy the outside perfect weekend to start the 6 nations, scotland v england in the afternoon with a stroll in the snow, cant wait!! time for a beverage and left the weekend finally begin forgot to say temp -1.7 55% humidity dp -10

Just had a look at the European Radar http://meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur Looks like that ppn is slipping south and wont be clipping even the coast of kent sadly I was looking forward to some excited posts today hmmm Jon

On train and therfore phone so sorry for any spell errors Update from etchingham Temp was at 8.00 -8.1 Dp was still at -11 But car in car park with slightly Less cover was frosty for 1st time, yey! But booo hiss, I didn't plan on that and nearly missed the train, I see some areas on way up to central have had a dusting at some point But very very light and sparse Fingers crossed for a great weekend, just got to get thgrough today!! Jon

Ive seen some very high thin cloud here in etchingham, mind you could be neighbours woodburner! Temp -3.0C Dew point -13C Humidity 47% Wind speed 3.1mph E(a definite drop in wind speed) Wind chill -4 Dont think we will see anything tonight this far inland. THeres always hope though Jon

A Question about that low i have seen off the se (front) on the models, if this forms some convective showers, as has been suggested, with the temp difference quite large and humidty so low are we likely to see any thunder snow? or a better way of putting my question, what kind of condition form thunder snow? Jon

etchingham: temp 0.4 humidity 39%!!! dew point -12 wind speed 10.1mph wind chill -4C that humidity cant be right can it???? so low, hence i think my scratchy throat,that or all the marlboro light from stress and model watching jon

down here in etchingham, i have a dp of -12!!! temp of -1 and wind chill coming in at -3 with a sheltered 4.8 mph th at is a crazy low dp!

righty i need to break the chain of hopes and dissapointments, DP at -11 here in etchingham! thats is seriously low, must be v v dry jon

temp has risen here, currently 1.2 wind is up too suddenly, a few gusts up to 16mph with winchill weather thingy saying temp is -2 wind is steady at around 7mph dp -5 C hmmm not as cold as i thought would be Jon

right update here on the kent sussex border, temp 0.7 DP -4C wind speed 3.4mph (slightly sheltered but at good elevation) directly NE windchill figure -1.0C broken cloud moving fairly fast in sum up, chilly...... jon

In central up at Holborn, Very light snizzle, grains etc.....i was told there was slightly more earlier and it might even have settled a little bit, however since i was inside at the time i cannot confirm, probably exaggeration. though I hear there is also definite light snow at New Malden, not settling either there! Well all in all it is a pleasant surprise after the gloom of the forecasts and of the model thread last night. jon