Luke McDonnell

What really annoys me is that fact that some posters both on this form and over on the TWO forum seem to be determined not to just write off the rest of December for cold, but the entire of January too - and going as far to say that will be mild and zonal and even confidently predicting more flooding - how can they be so sure of this yes some long range models are buying into the zonal solution but if those long range models where showing cold I am sure the same posters would be say "exercise caution" or "its FI, it's not going to happen - generally the near term models are accurate up to about 5 days and then after is FI. The most extreme example of this was a poster over on the TWO forum who at first predicted a very cold winter and with the changes in model output recently is now predicting that this winter will be similar to 1988/89 - that was one of the mildest winters on record I don't see any way that this december will be as mild as 1988 (the second mildest in 100 years - a CET of 7.5C so a 1 in 50 year event at least!) so to get a winter to rival 1988/89 January and February are going to have to be record mild - some posters seem to be too influenced by emotion over thier disappointment with the lack of cold (e.g. the failed easterly) rather than analysing things objectively - so thats my gripe. I have posted a good example on the model thread of a month which had a mild and wet first 3 weeks - milder than this month and then a decent cold spell in the final week - December 2000 (which was in the so called "christmas pudding" as well btw) and many of the decembers of the 80s (e.g. 1986) were milder than this December and were followed by decent cold in January and February so why can't the same happen this time. Luke

Hello again, I have mentioned on the model thread about December 2000 - that month seems interesting as the cold spell then came after a long wet and mild spell - not to different to what we have now except for the fact that apparently the first half of December 2000 was milder! Then we got a decent cold spell between Christmas and New Year which delivered the goods for the NW including for me in Liverpool I remember Liverpool Airport being closed due to the snow and some pretty low temperatures being recorded - we must have got about 15cm not bad - and the was during the so called "christmas pudding" too! so considering that example I do get annoyed when some forum members (like at the moment) are trying to write off not just the rest of December, but the entire of January for cold - as an example, I won't name names but a poster over on the TWO forum seemed to be pretty confident that January will be a zonal, wet and mild month with a lot of flooding - how can he say that considering it is well into FI - if the models were showing a cold outlook I am sure he will say "it's FI, don't believe it" etc. Luke

You mean this month not December of 2000? Just had an interest in that month as it just goes to show how quickly things can change from a zonal mobile setup to a cold northerly set up which resulted in a significant snowfall for our location and I know how difficult it is to get a decent snowfall here in Liverpool. Does anyone know what resulted in the sudden change from a mild zonal setup to a colder one in December 2000 - was there a stratospheric warming then? And was it a cold zonal setup or a blocked setup - was the blocking already in situ prior to the cold spell. As I said I certainly would not mind a repeat of December 2000 or even 2004 - and considering the setup I think we would be more likely to get a repeat of those decembers than December 2010.

I was just looking at what was responsible for the failed Easterly and the reason why after the failed Easterly we got quite a mediocre pattern for much of the rest of the month, and what could have influanced the jet to be stronger around our locale - the shortwave has been mentioned but that is just a mesoscale feature as opposed to a macroscale one like the teleconnections etc. I have just been thinking - I was thinking of a good example to demonstrate that nothing is nailed on even when we appear to be in a protracted wet zonal spell and it seems that December 2000 was a good example of this. Apparently the cold spell of December 2000 came after a very wet and mild period - and the proceeding November was very wet with a lot of flooding just like now - and the first part of December 2000 was milder than even this month so far and then between Christmas and New Year we got the best cold spell for a while at least in this part of the world - here in Liverpool we got at least 10cm of snow and I remember the airport being closed due to snow and the snow remained on the ground for a few days - does anyone know why the outlook suddenly changed then and do you think something like it could happen in late december/early January especially considering the predicted strat warmings etc. - December 2000 seems to be a good example to show to those writing off the rest of December and January as it shows how quickly things can change from a very protected wet, mild and zonal period into a decent cold spell. Luke

Interesting so it goes to show that the current or recent state of solar activity should also be taken into account as well as your standard backround factors like the teleconnections (e.g. the QBO, ENSO) and the state of the stratosphere as one factor can override the other given the circumstances.

Hi, Havent posted on here for a while but I have been keeping an eye on proceedings in this place and I was particually fascinated by the failed Easterly episode and the fact that it seemed to be scuppered at the last minute and it even had a good level of teleconnection and other backround factor support. I am just wondering from this do you think a sudden increase in solar activity could be to blame for the faliure of the Easterly and the rather Atlantic controlled pattern since? I do know that a sudden increase in solar activity can ramp up the jetstream. GP hinted at this in one of his posts implying that an increase in solar activity was recorded at the end of November and that could been at least partly to blame for his december forecast not going totally to plan. So do you think solar activity could have been the "wild card" this month in the fact that it could have overridden the backround signals (including the strat etc.) resulting in a milder more Atlantic dominated month that expected? Luke

An annoying, upsetting, frustrating update from the Met Office. The models reflect their output. Summer is over. Climatologically this is the warmest part of the year, but this year a protracted spell of hot, sunny weather looks very unlikely. In fact inclement weather that has characterised June and early July will probably still be in evidence, although overall conditions are unlikely to be as bad. Forecasts for the southern half of the UK favour below average sunshine amounts, with mean daytime temperatures about four times more likely to be below average than above. Rainfall in the south is extremely uncertain, though very wet conditions are a little more likely than very dry. For the northern half of the UK there are no clear indications of above or below average sunshine, rainfall or temperature, although as we move into August conditions here may improve. Hi BT, I don't agree with the "Summer is over" statement - here at least in Liverpool it feels like summer today - it is quite sunny and around 20C - just because the Met Office update says that poor weather is still in evidence does not rule out recent days. Actually, I think the average July max for our area is around 20C so you could say that today is like a typical summer's day for us. How long does that update go out into - does it take us into August? - sorry for going a bit OT. I would like to see a pattern change soon though as I think we should be due one - even if thier wasn't a long term pattern change is thier anything stopping us getting a period simliar to the end of May at the end of July - e.g. a 7 day warm spell considering the summer so far I think a lot of people on here would kill for that LOL!. Another question for you is does anyone think that 30C will not be breached anywhere in the British Isles during official summer this year - what do you think the odds of that is at the moment? as I think you have to go back to 1993 to get a summer that did not breach 30C but I think thier were some summers in the 1960s that did not reach it. Luke

I think that hurricane or tropical storm activity can cause changes at short notice in the synoptics - I do remember that the warm spell in July 2008 emerged at very short notice due to the effect of a hurricane coming of the eastern seaboard - does anyone remember how that evolved in the models? Yes people have came out to say that the pattern is set in for the foseeable and may last until the end of July but that is subject to unforseen changes at short notice - we do not know what the impact of the hurricane season will have on the synoptics in this part of the world.

But what puzzles me is why we have to have a southerly tracking jetstream yet again - it was like the we had our warm spell at the end of May for about 8 days or so and then once the jetstream moves south and the HP retrogresses to Greenland it stays stuck thier for weeks and weeks. I thought the jetstream is more mobile than that why is it stuck to the south for long periods of time. On another note - if this summer turns out to be another "poor" summer overall it will mean 6 poor summers on the run - I know its subjective and it can vary between areas over what qualifies as a poor summer but I will stick with the definition of a poor summer for NW England and I live in Liverpool so I think the best definition of a poor summer would be using Mr Data's summer index - defining it as a sub 200 index - by that defintion the last 5 summers have been poor - when did we have last have a run of such poor quality summers for the NW - the 1960's - even in the 80s we only had 4 poor summers between 1985 and 1989 so you could say it is certainly the most prolonged run of poor summers I have seen in my lifetime - I was born in 1980! So unprecedent in my lifetime? Luke

luke - the upper ridge around greenland is about to strengthen rather than weaken and this time around its going to be centred a bit further east between s greenland and iceland. that means the upper trough has to be stuck closer to the uk whereas last week it was just a bit to our west which enabled a plume to give us a few decent days. despite some promising operational fi's, there seems no way out of this before mid month. its a long time since the ops trumped the ens guidance in fi. depressing but i am confident that the pattern will change/shift. given the amplified nature of it, if its a shift we could end up with a very steamy period indeed. Thanks for that then Nick it would be nice to see at least some signs of improvement - by "steamy" does that imply warm and humid with a chance of thunderstorms etc. lets wait and see what transpires. Luke

By unusual synoptics could that include the possibility of a hurricane or tropical storm quickly having an effect on the pattern and moving the jetstream north? I recalled that occured to give us a warm spell at the end of July 2008 which allowed the unsettled pattern to be broke at least for a time? Nick, what do you think about the second half of July - Gavin in his monthly outlook is going for a warmer and drier end to the month - do you see that happening I really want to see better weather around my birthday (18th July). Luke

It seems that a lot of places in the Arctic Circle are warmer than us that the moment - Yellowknife right up in the North of Canada has temps climbing into the mid 20s this week as well - instead of going to Spain to get some sun and warmth why not go to Yellowknife, Arctic Russia or even Greenland LOL! Just also asking what do you see this June coming out of in terms of the CET is it likely to be the coolest since 1991 or 1987 I think the CET for 1991 was in the 12s so that could be hard to beat - in terms of rainfall will it beat 2007 as that was pretty wet. Luke

Was not trying to imply that +NAO months in the summer will never happen again - I was just making out how many consecutive -NAO months we have had in the summer quarter since 2006 and how statistically it might seem unlikely. I fully understand that we will get a hot summer month again - like people used to think that cold or very cold winters would not happen again until 2008-09 and 2009-10 came along. Luke

The funny thing is that the stats say that we have not had one +NAO summer month since July 2006 - how could that be the case that is nearly 6 years of official summer months with a -NAO including what looks like this one - it seems amazing statistically - it is like flipping a coin 16 times and getting tails every time - without fail. Surely, by the law of averages we must be due a +NAO summer month shortly - if it continues in this vain I will seriously start thinking that +NAO months are no longer possible in the summer quarter as strange as that seems. Luke

One of the things that puzzles me is why is it that High Pressure can set up over Greenland/Iceland for weeks on end but not over the British Isles/NW Europe? It's like we get 9 days or so of HP over us at the end of May, it retrogresses to Greenland, and once thier it stays thier for more than triple the time it was over us for. Surely, if HP can set up over Greenland for a protracted period of time leaving us exposed to likely unsettled weather, then surely it can set up over the British Isles for a protected period of time giving us weeks and weeks of sun! Anyone agree? Luke

Hi, Just wondering do you think the QBO could be a factor responsible for our cool and wet June so far? I read a post on this forum claiming the the QBO was very negative a few weeks ago I also read that during most of the very warm months (e.g. July 2006/1995) the QBO was either positive or neutral. So I am just asking does anyone think that with the current state of the QBO we should not be surprised with the current pattern for this June so far - is it true that a very negative QBO would encourage more high latitude blocking which would make warm and settled spells few and far between? Also does anyone have an update on the current state of the QBO is it not as negative as it has been over the last few weeks - is it expected to go neutral soon and could that mean better prospects for the rest of the summer? Luke

Hi, Is that a pattern reminicent of more recent summers - like when Russia had that heatwave and we were stuck in a cool and unsettled regime? Why does a greenland high have to form just as meterological summer gets going? But I don't think it will be as bad as that and I think this summer should be a rather decent one - it is almost like the models have a mind to fustrate those who are looking for summery weather LOL! Luke

Even if next week turns cooler or even more unsettled I can't really foresee the amount of rainfall that we have had over April and May again - that was pretty exceptional and I think a more showery or convective regime would be more likley based on current outputs rather than some of the incessent frontal type rain that we had during April and May. What I find funny on this forum LOL is that how some people can be pretty pessimistic - as I have mentioned on another thread in the UK we have a maritime/oceanic climate rather than a mediterranean one - and even the best summers that we can remember in our lifetimes contained periods of cool, wet and or more disturbed weather - remember the summers of 1975, 1983, 1989, 1990 and 1995 all contained periods of cool or even cold for the time of year weather in June (and wet and showery) - and August was more disturbed in 2006. Luke

Hi, Haven't posted on here for a bit of a while but I have decided to post on here today because it was actually 25C outside but it certainly felt over 30 warmer than any day during this spell so far and I am even feeling the early stages of heat exhaustion which is quite uncomfortable (cramps, headaches etc. - and I don't normally get it even in 35C heat in Spain). Not a bad spell of weather and it certainly beats a lot of the weather we have had to put up with in summer over the last few years. As for the cooler weather expected next week, is it true that as we are a maritime/oceanic climate rather than a mediterranean one even the best of summers contain cool and/or unsettled periods e.g. I think there was some coolish weather in the Junes of 1983, 1989, 1990 and 1995 and of course 1975 and in 2006 August was pretty Atlantic dominated - so do even our best summers contain at least some cool and or wet? - all those were very good summers for this country. I am hoping for some good summer weather this year but one thing that concerns me a bit is that Nick (bluearmy) over on TWO has hinted that the NAEFS longer range ensembles have hinted at a NW/SW spit developing similar to recent summers with the SE and nearby mainland Europe getting hot and settled weather but with the NW of the UK being more unsettled - I really hope that doesn't verify for our area as it seems to have happened to much in recent summers were we get the muck and the SE and most of the rest of Europe is warm/hot - what do you think? Luke

Hi, The strange thing is last week the surface temperatures were OK for snow, but the uppers (850HpA) would not play ball (of course when we got the freezing rain). Now it is the other way round, 850HpAs fine but now you've guessed it - the surface tempeatures will not play ball - there always has to be something out of step - why are we so curses LOL! like HC said it is quite difficult to get the conditions for decent snowfall in my area (Liverpool/Cheshire) - he said although we can get snow - the synoptics have to be quite perfect otherwise we can miss out on events - do you think that is true? Anyway on a good note that hail shower around 9.30pm was amazing very heavy hail with big hailstones - I was surprised I didn't hear thunder - if I can't have snow I will certainly take thunder! We have done well as far as "winter thunderstorms" are concerned this winter including the thundersnow event in December - I think we must have more thunder this winter than we did last summer - anyone else notice! Luke

Seattle is the only major US city that is remotely like the UK climate-wise. Seattle is still sunnier then London with 2,174 hours of sunshine on average (peaking in July with 313 hours of sunshine), it's also drier in summer with only 18mm of rainfall on average in July and summers are slightly warmer. Seattle is also considerably wetter from October - April. So no, Seattle is not at all like south-west England, especially not the coast. Vancouver is cooler in summer then London with slightly milder winters, and is far, far wetter and also sunnier. New York and Washington are far hotter then Berlin and Munich in summer, though both New York and Washington are milder in winter. New York and Washington are much wetter then London but this is due to the high frequency of downpours/thunderstorms in the summer months. Both are obviously sunnier but this is largely due to longer winter daylight hours as summers in New York and Washington are cloudier then Seattle. New York has a reputation for being very snowy but in fact it isn't, it gets an average of 27 inches of snowfall annually and it rarely lasts more then a few days much like in the UK. It's far more prone to massive dumpings of snow but ice days in New York don't occur very frequently even during cold spells. It's nowhere near as snowy as upstate New York and is not as snowy as Chicago, though Chicago is not that snowy either despite its reputation. New York and Washington are more prone to big dumps of snow because of nor'easter systems. New York and Washington are both indeed sub-tropical and not continental according to the Koppen classification system. The big blizzard of 2010 in New York is very unusual and is not at all common. Oh, and New York is very snow starved this winter - only 7.8 inches of snow for the entire season. In most places in the North East USA, the snowiest month of the season was October! And saying that, Seattle must have had more snow than a lot of the NE coast this winter - didn't they have a big dumping (by thier standards) in January? Was that a frontal snow event similar to our battleground scenarios with cold air bumping into a depression from the Pacific? Would that event be the equivalent of December 2010 over hear, i.e. quite a rare major snowfall for them? Luke

Just wondering what our weather is like compared to some places in North America - I know that Seattle has a similar climate to the UK but I think it has slightly drier (and sunnier) summers though but it does get alot of cloud cover which I think would be on a par with most of the UK most of the year. So in that respect would the Seattle (or Vancouver which is close) climate be comparable with some of the coastal areas of England or perhaps Devon or Cornwall? Looking at the East Coast, New York and Washington DC would the climate be similar to Berlin or Munich as far of the averages are concerned or would the summers on average be hotter. I think that New York is on average wetter than London though but is this due to the incidence of convection and thunderstorms during the summer too? As far as New York City is concered is it true that over hear the perception is that it is quite snowy in the winter, but the reality is that it is not actually that snowy especially compared to upstate New York (that gets lake effect snow) and places like Chicago? NYC or Washington DC winters on average only seem slightly colder than some parts of the UK but I know they do get colder cold spells, warmer mild spells and "better snow events/snowstorms" due to the continentality? Actually for this reason some meterologists don't class NYC (or DC) as a true "continental" climate - a subtropical climate instead would that be right - I think its because the coldest month does not average below freezing? Actually, NYC has had quite a snowless winter this winter - I think London must have had more snowfall/depths than NYC this winter - in contrast to the big blizzard in December 2010 - that does seem unusual is that correct? New Yorkers must be very snow starved this winter! Luke

Hi BT, How is it going for snow chances tomorrow do you think we will see anything it certainly is going to be cold enough for snow tomorrow night into Sunday morning, come on mate, I want to see something - I think we deserve it! Even without snow an impressive front as well - how much do you think we could see temperatures drop by over a short period of time? Luke

I though the second half of February 1991 was mild so that offset the cold meaning overall it wasn't a very cold month with a CET less than 2.0C. Anyway myself I would really like to see some snow this weekend - I found it quite strange that we got snow from the cold zonality in December but the recent continental cold spell came to nought as far as snow is concered for my area. I notice that the GFS shows some showers or precipitation in the Irish Sea Saturday night/Sunday morning - could they deliver the goods? EDIT: I think it is a trough as shown on the fax charts. That should give us a chance of precipitation surely. Luke

Just as a matter of interest why are we looking likely to have a mild second half of February again - we haven't seemed to have had a very cold February (i.e. less than 2.0CET) for a long time - the last time it happened must have been 1986 surely - and why when it looks likely we could get such a month the Azores high edges in and damages that prospect. It is surprising that such a mobile pattern is establishing itself at the tail end of winter - this is the time of year that Northern Blocking is normally at its most evident. Just as a matter of interest why are we looking likely to have a mild second half of February again - we haven't seemed to have had a very cold February (i.e. less than 2.0CET) for a long time - the last time it happened must have been 1986 surely - and why when it looks likely we could get such a month the Azores high edges in and damages that prospect. agine! Luke