I think the missing data part could actually be a factor here, I'm assuming that some of it's 'shared' and perhaps, just perhaps ECM decided to wait vs the other models running with what they had. Given the unique state of the atmosphere it 'makes sense'.
Oh and I think its written in the stars... I was on a train back from Derby last night and happily browsing the forum when I looked left and noticed the chap next to me doing the same, what are the chances of 2 weather geeks sitting next to each other on the same random train? We had a little laugh and chat about how this is all going tits up and then boom I check the ECM on my next train and we're back in the game.