March Blizzard

The upcoming cold spell/snap, to me, is less about simply wintry weather and more about wintry weather in March. On the whole, March has been extremely benign for about 2 decades so the potential for next week stands out as something special. In the 1980's we had 5 sub 5C Marches, since then we have only had i think 2, it's because of this I find it hard to believe some weather enthusiasts would like to "pass" on the cold given the relative rarity of it for so long for the month in question. Surely they can grin and bear it for a week (if it lasts that long) or at least not begrudge those who want it. I dislike terms such as "warmies" and "coldies" because many of us have different preferences depending on the time of year or even our mood, i don't think many are permenently in just one "camp". However, in this instance, the "warmies/mildies" (whatever...) should lower their expectations for warmth to the same extent "coldies" should for cold. We're at a time of year when both can happen yet we're more than likely to land somewhere in the middle, or chop and change until warmth becomes more likely and takes over. For now, cold/cool weather is the default. If you see appreciable warmth, count yourself lucky.

The record low maximum for March in the UK is just -4.4C, in Wales. Scotland's is -3.9C and England's is -3.3C. Perhaps there is a chance one of these will go sometime next week, particularly Monday.

Is there a slight chance this March could have a lower CET value than the 3 winter months before it? If so, when was the last time March was colder than 3 below average winter months preceding it?

I'm unsure myself but your "half and half" idea in terms of length of day and night seems logical, it allows enough time for temperatures to rise and then fall without going too far either way. However, I think the main cause is humidity, or rather the lack of it. March is often a "dry" month so when calm, clear conditions materialise at this time of year there is reletively little humidity to "hold up" the temperatures overnight, so they drop sharply after sunset. Naturally, deserts and other arid areas see the greatest diurnal ranges. Places like the Gobi desert and the Dakotas in the US can see some huge ranges. Conversely, very humid places like Singapore have very narrow ranges.

That's almost as large a variation as late March last year in Scotland!

Thanks BFTV!

I would say it is noteworthy for it's narrow range! Some massive differences across the country today.

Some very big ranges today; Benson -3.7C at 7am, 15.3C at 2pm = 19C Trawsgoed -2.8C at 5am, 16.8C at 2pm = 19.6C Capel Curig -4.9C at 7am, 13.1C at 3pm = 18C Just to name a few.

I sometimes cook food on the BBQ when I can't be bothered cooking properly, doesn't have to be particularly warm just dry with enough daylight.

While Stockport is Cheshire's armpit...

Cheers Reef. March really has warmed up over the last few decades.

I think it might be a British thing, I'm sure most other people around the world in 8C sunny weather with a chilly light breeze would dress and act accordingly!

It's a nice time of year for sunny, clear weather. Fresh by day and cold by night, beautiful.

Absolutely. I don't blame people at all for wanting warmth, and it is possible in March but cool/cold is far more likely. Its just that some people almost talk as if it were May.

Great post. It's amazing how people talk of a "rapidly strengthening sun" when in fact it's a very slowly strengthening sun, and has been since late December. The sun is about as strong now as it was in October. People also talk about "warmth" as if an average high of 9C falls into that category, relatively it may feel warm but in absolute terms it's not. Even the Weather man on BBC news last night tried to tell me lows of 2-3C were cold for early March when in fact they couldn't be any more typical. That magic switch that you talk about that's flicked on March 1st also confuses me. I can understand people being fed up with cold and wishing for some warmth but I feel many people's expectations for the month are too high. It's the month of false hope.

Can someone post a graph of March daily means, like I think Reef did in the Feb CET thread? I would greatly appreciate it.

The March CET of 5.7C was for the period 1961-1990. The CET for the period 1971-2000 is 6.3C. The Met Office anomaly figure goes off the average daily means up until that date, that's why it doesn't add up to the overall CET value for the month.

Not sure if Nick Sussex is talking about upper temperatures or 2M temps, but the March record low temperature occurred on the 14th. While the bulk of low temperatures occur in the first 3rd of the month there is still the possibility for extremely cold weather well into the month. Food for thought in regards of what potential this possible mid month spell could bring.

I agree. For whatever reason Springs are getting warmer seemingly more than any other season. March has warmed by nearly 1C from the 1961-90 CET period up until the most recent one. March can throw everything at us but over the past few years, bar the odd exception, has thrown sun and warmth our way and not cold and snow.

Any chance of an update? Sea ice is still growing at this time of year.

But by no means should be expected, we can't have record breaking warmth every March. 3 to 4 months, yes.

Surely all thermometers record below -27.2C? It seems like too random a figure to me, my money is on the statistical fluke! I agree about there being places colder than the likes of Breamar and Altnaharra where no weather stations exist, it's more likely than not. Anyway, it's almost certain the actual record is lower than the officially recorded one, the question is by how much?

Thanks for your post, Vizzy. You've done quite well, I'd imagine that's one of the biggest ranges in the country today.

I'll go for the old school value of 5.7C, please.

We're at that time of year again when the difference in temperature between day and night can be notable. Please use this thread to log/discuss your own or other diurnal ranges. Eskdalemuir: -4.4C at 6am, up to 10.6C at 2pm Keswick: -4.2C at 6am, up to 12.7C at 2pm Shap: -7.0C at 7am, up to 9.2C at 2pm Carlisle: -3.5C at 4am, up to 10.7C at 2pm Strathallan: -4.2C at 7am, up to 11.9C at 1pm