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March Blizzard

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  1. I was seeing someone from Stockport at the time of the 09/10 event and I can tell you now I think I'd have preferred that event than that of Dec '10 if I lived there too! I remember her struggling down here early Jan '10 and me being shocked that there was still a solid foot of snow iced on to the top of her car when she got here, never seen anything like it. There was about 3cm lying here!

     

    It was an unbelievably potent streamer event and it still cuts me up that I missed it all by about 12 miles!

     

    You poor sod! :rofl:

     

    But yeah, Jan 2010 is still the benchmark in terms of snow and cold for me, beating Dec 10 for temperatures and snow depth. It was the closest I've come to experiencing "proper" winter conditions, as per most places on our latitude.

     

    In terms of snow in Stockport, I'm fairly central and low-lying, so not the best location in theory, yet I have seen some spectacular snow events here over the last 5 years. Stockport rapidly rises in altitude to the east, and places like Marple can genuinely get pasted with snow, it settles earlier, deeper and lasts longer round that way, to the point that winter there can actually be relatively "severe" by UK standards.

  2. I always have low expectations of autumn but this year please PLEASE PLEASE can we avoid boring dross like October 2014 and November 2011, not merely for sanity's sake but so that cold pool out in the Atlantic doesn't vanish just in time for winter. It's the very least Mother Nature owes us at the moment.

    Interesting to note the behaviour of low pressure systems these past three months, so many have spiralled in situ just to our NW and crossed to the NE pulling down NW/N airflows, a similar set up in winter would reinforce the cold SST's and it would be a potent polar maritime fest, snow galore for the NW quarter of the country.. quite likely to produce significant cold air advection over mid atlantic and our shores on occasion, warm air advection over central Europe and scandi blocked by a major strong ridge/high pressure over western Russia.

    For our region in particular that North Atlantic cold anomaly could be a significant player, so I'm keen for it to remain or even grow and intensify as Autmumn drags on and winter arrives.

    That snowfall in late January this year from a NW airflow was spectacular while it lasted, as was the Boxing Day 2014 fall. This time round, should the low Atlantic SST's remain, we may be on the right side of marginal far more often. A potential snowy "cold zonality" winter on the way?

    A very, very early ramp! :)

    Anyway, knowing our luck, that cold pool will disappear by mid November and/or the Northwesterlies will die off. The one time I'd want some weather off the Atlantic we'll probably get a raging beasterly...

    ...with that being said, I'd take it!

    • Like 2
  3. December 2010...will we ever see its like again? A magical month that was. Stunning photos there WH.

    I know it sounds ridiculous now, but I was actually slightly disappointed with December 2010 at the time, after what I'd experienced in January 2010.

    Locally, Jan 2010 recorded lower temperatures and deeper snow than Dec 2010. Yes, it wasn't as prolonged as the spell in December, but for me Jan 2010 is still the benchmark for winter weather in the UK.

    I sum it up by saying my recollection of Jan 2010 is of wading through snow, while Dec 2010 it was slipping on ice.

    In Jan 2010 nearby Woodford was sub -17C for 2 nights in a row, and nearly as cold for a while longer. The -14C or-so achieved the following December seemed like a letdown! I couldn't figure out why it didn't get colder, despite the favourable conditions.

  4. Today's minimum is 10.5C while maxima look like reaching just the 16s, so a drop to 16.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

     

    After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

     

    16.6C to the 25th (14.8: -2.2)

    16.5C to the 26th (13.2: -4.0)

    16.5C to the 27th (15.9: -1.3)

    16.4C to the 28th (14.4: -3.0)

    16.3C to the 29th (13.0: -4.7)

    16.2C to the 30th (14.2: -3.2)

    16.1C to the 31st (13.5: -3.7)

     

    Today's GFS goes even colder than yesterday, 3.2C below the 81-10 average for the last 8 days. If today's run is correct, the last 10 days of this July could be the coldest since 1966.

    Wow, imagine if we ended up in the 15's after corrections! Would be very impressive given how the month started.

    • Like 1
  5. Considering that France hasn't even managed 45c before, I'd put the chance of us seeing that as virtually nil.

    Even 40c would be a big ask.

    Yeah, 45C is extremely warm, even in the hottest places on earth. I'd say such a temperature in the UK is actually impossible, considering continental Germany on a similar latitude to us has only scraped past 40C.

    45C is about the average summer high in Furnace Creek, California - the place that recorded the official world record high temperature and is probably the warmest place on earth for summer maxima.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furnace_Creek,_California

  6. No other year has even come close to the difference between June 1st and July 1st at least.

    5s1sQWX.png

    As for any 30/31 day period, I'll see if I can figure that one out...

    Good stuff, BFTV. Looking forward to it!

    Off the top of my head I'm thinking maybe a date in mid Feb 1947, and then mid March when the thaw came. It was quite abrupt, apparently? Even so, that would take a CET average of around -5C to +10C, respectively.

  7. June 1st came in at 9.5C in the CET zone, it'll be interesting to see the difference between it and July 1st.

    Substantial is an understatement...

    July 1st came in at 24.5C, a full 15C warmer than June 1st!

    There can't have been many instances in the CET history in which two dates within 30/31 days of each other have seen such a disparity in temperature.

  8. To be honest, I'm surprised July has never recorded 37C+ before, given that the June and September records are pushing 36C, and that the height of Summer is in late July/ early August. The July record afterall is less than a degree hotter than the June and September records, and the August record is a full two degrees hotter. That just doesn't seem right!

    Perhaps the 36-38C range is around the upper limit for the UK, regardless of the time of year, with late June-early September the window for it.

    Kinda like how we have recorded -27.2C in every winter month, with late December to mid February the window for that, but haven't managed to drop lower.

    You get the impression it would take something extremely exceptional to reach either 40C or -30 here, with a "perfect storm" of factors all having to come together.

    I always find it odd when places abroad can completely obliterate records, by 5-10C, or even more in cases, yet in the UK we usually stumble over the line by 0.1C or so.

  9. Just had my dream summer's day today! A 34C, mostly sunny day followed by an absolute belter of a thunderstorm, with near-constant lightning.

     

    Thank you weather gods! :yahoo:

    34C?? That seems a little high. According to Diane on BBC weather tonight the hotspot in our region was Rochdale at 31C...

    • Like 1
  10. Here's a list from TORRO on the top 100 hottest days ever recorded in the UK. Unfortunately, it only shows the highest temp recorded in a day, and ignores the 2nd, 3rd, ect which may still be higher than others on the list.

     

     (Apologies, it's not very easy on the eye. I can't get the formatting right to get it in a table)

     

    It'll be interesting to see where Wednesday lands on this list

    1st 38.5 10/08/2003

    2nd 37.1 03/08/1990

    3rd 36.7 09/08/1911

    4th 36.6 02/08/1990

    5th 36.5 19/08/2006

    6th 36.4 05/08/2003

    7th 36.1 06/08/2003

    8th 36.1 19/08/1932

    9th 36 22/08/1911

    10th 35.9 03/07/1976

    11th 35.7 02/07/1976

    12th 35.6 28/06/1976

    13th 35.6 29/06/1957

    14th 35.6 13/07/1923

    15th 35.6 13/08/1911

    16th 35.6 02/09/1906

    17th 35.5 27/06/1976

    18th 35.4 26/06/1976

    19th 35.2 01/08/1995

    20th 35.2 02/08/1990

    21st 35.2 04/08/1990

    22nd 35.1 20/08/1900

    23rd 35 29/06/1957

    24th 35 12/07/1923

    25th 35 15/07/1881

    26th 35 28/08/1948

    27th 35 14/08/1876

    28th 35 18/08/1932

    29th 35 01/09/1906

    30th 34.9 31/08/1906

    31st 34.8 01/07/1961

    32nd 34.8 05/08/2003

    33rd 34.8 02/09/1906

    34th 34.7 11/08/2003

    35th 34.7 18/08/1893

    36th 34.6 08/09/1911

    37th 34.4 03/06/1947

    38th 34.4 05/07/1959

    39th 34.4 11/07/1921

    40th 34.4 16/08/1881

    41st 34.4 27/08/1933

    42nd 34.4 29/08/1948

    43rd 34.4 29/08/1930

    44th 34.3 22/06/1941

    45th 34.3 06/07/1976

    46th 34.3 22/08/1989

    47th 34.2 08/08/1975

    48th 34.2 03/09/1906

    49th 34.1 04/07/1976

    50th 34.1 08/07/1941

    51st 34.1 16/08/1900

    52nd 34.1 11/08/1884

    53rd 34 21/08/1911

    54th 34 07/08/1975

    55th 33.9 17/06/1917

    56th 33.9 22/06/1941

    57th 33.9 01/07/1961

    58th 33.9 10/07/1921

    59th 33.9 08/01/1900

    60th 33.9 31/08/1943

    61st 33.9 12/08/1911

    62nd 33.9 13/08/1911

    63rd 33.9 16/08/1947

    64th 33.9 17/08/1947

    65th 33.9 22/08/1918

    66th 33.9 27/08/1942

    67th 33.9 28/08/1930

    68th 33.8 30/06/1957

    69th 33.7 12/08/1953

    70th 33.6 15/08/1876

    71st 33.6 22/08/1995

    72nd 33.5 25/06/1976

    73rd 33.4 23/08/1989

    74th 33.4 07/09/1898

    75th 33.3 02/06/1947

    76th 33.3 06/06/1950

    77th 33.3 07/07/1893

    78th 33.3 07/07/2023

    79th 33.3 18/08/2006

    80th 33.3 19/08/1901

    81st 33.3 26/08/1885

    82nd 33.3 30/08/1948

    83rd 33.3 29/08/1930

    84th 33.3 07/09/1911

    85th 33.1 07/06/1996

    86th 33 21/08/1995

    87th 32.8 09/06/1940

    88th 32.8 19/06/2005

    89th 32.8 07/07/1923

    90th 32.8 26/08/1964

    91st 32.8 05/09/1949

    92nd 32.7 07/07/1976

    93rd 32.7 17/08/2006

    94th 32.6 24/01/1900

    95th 32.5 25/08/1976

    96th 32.4 24/06/1976

    97th 32.3 14/07/1983

    98th 32.3 20/08/1995

    99th 32.3 04/09/1940

    100th 32.2 08/06/1915

    Early August is the King of warm, going off that. Although I'm pretty sure that 36.5C temp was actually July 2006, not August.

    I also didn't realise it got so warm in January 1900...

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