March Blizzard
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My iPhone weather is going for a 34C max and 20C min for Gravesend on Wednesday...that's a mean of 27C!!
It's even got here down for 32C/18C, a 25C mean.
Considering the CET daily record is 25.2C, there's a decent chance that could be under threat.
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Max: 33.3C at Gravesend, Thursday
Min: 20.9C at Kew, Thursday into Friday.
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I might be struggling working outside in that heat next week. Might have to wear a cap, and I hate headwear.
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13.5C to the 24th
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2015
The minimum today is 9.8C while maxima look like reaching about 21.5C, so an increase to 13.6C is possible of tomorrows update.
After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:
13.7C to the 25th (16.4)13.8C to the 26th (17.5)13.9C to the 27th (16.3)14.0C to the 28th (16.0)14.0C to the 29th (14.8]14.1C to the 30th (17.3)At this stage, I'd say a finish of 13.9 to 14.3C is most likely before corrections, then 13.5C to 14.3C after corrections.Looking like a much warmer finish to the month now, how will that affect things?
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Only out by 368 days!
Still time for a downgrade...
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I can't speak for NW England but we reached 31C in both 2011 and 2013, and nearly every year before 2007, so it's certainly not unusual at all to reach 30C at least once. The weatheronline forecast had a high of 31C here with highs of 27-29C on other days, and I thought 'That's not even close to record breaking'.
When we get 5 consecutive days above 30C like we did in August 1995 or 34C like we did in August 1990, I'll take more notice - but it's still nice to see a forecast like this after the crappy start to summer.
I think your side of the Pennines is more prone to the warmer temperatures in summer, Cheese. Quite often when you look at a coloured temperature map of the UK the oranges and yellows can spread quite far north up the eastern side of the Pennines, with my side typically coloured in greens/yellows. I guess in many ways the heat escapes the south and moves north unimpeded in the eastern half of the country, the northwest, being closer to the Atlantic and relatively sheltered usually escapes the "worst" of the heat.
30C here is by no means impossible, and I wouldn't even say it's exceptional as such, but it is pretty rare.
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I still stand by this even with the forecast heat next week, looks like another overrated plume to me now,
we did achieve over 30c in the ninties and in 2006, but i cant recall anything since,
Yeah, it shows how rare such temperatures are in our neck of the woods when you see 30C forecast and react with "eh?!". It just doesn't look right, does it?
My iPhone is currently going for a 31C max on Wednesday for here, BBC less keen with 28C and sunshine and showers.
30C doesn't look too out of place in the South Eastern corner of England, but for us it is.
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17C-22C, plenty of sunshine, the odd cooler day and the odd warmer day, a few thunderstorms, the odd wet day and night time temperatures of around 7-12C would be my ideal summer.
I guess I'm easily pleased, my selection isn't too far from a typical British summer anyway.
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In terms of actually feeling cold, mine may well have been 11th March 2013. That wind was outrageously cold. I happen to have good recollection of it as that date is my birthday.Hottest aprox 35 deg Marmaris ,Turkey 1996 or maybe slightly hotter sunshine coast ,Australia 2012,hottest uk aprox 33 deg,home 1990
Coldest -13 deg December 2010 but certainly matched by several days December 1981 and a couple December 1995
Coldest feeling has to be much of February 1986,not as cold as above but the biting east winds made it feel so much colder!
I was in Ashton under Lyne the day before, and that was positively polar, with strong, biting winds sweeping off the Pennines.
https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76103-monday-11th-march-2013-weather-and-general-chat/
Check out TM's second post...
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New Warmest day of the year so far-27.8c at Gravesend, Kent.
Strange, would never have guessed that from my location. High teens and the odd shower here today. Totally nondescript.
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Warmest is probably around the low-mid 40's Celsius, in one of the many Greek Islands I've visited, most likely warmest in Crete or Cyprus.
Coldest was probably around the -15C mark, in January 2010, when nearby Woodford recorded -17.6.
+41c in Dubai Sept 1996
-42c (-50c windchill ) Edmonton Alberta March 2011
Wow, your coldest temperature was in March? How long were you in Canada, CM? I always thought that the western half of the US/Canada had peak cold in Dec/Jan, with the Eastern half generally colder in Jan/Feb.
Hottest: 50C in Furnace Creek, Death Valley, CA United States on 18th July 2010
Coldest: -7c in Little Sutton, Wirral in On December 29th 2005 & Brighton, East Sussex December 3rd 2010
I'd love to visit Furnace Creek in summer. I'll make sure I get round to it at some point. Likewise, I've got to one day visit Oymyakon or Verkhoyansk in winter.
(I'd actually like to visit Dome A in Antarctica, but I'm not sure how likely that is...)
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Really?
Haha, no. Not really. It was very unpleasant, though...
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Every day? Certainly - far too warm, but occasionally I like such heat - mostly for interest, as they tend to spark off juicy storms but it's also a novelty to get such high temperatures in the same way it is a novelty to get to -20C in winter. The way people go goo goo over cold weather on here is more puzzling to me because cold weather really serves very little purpose - and that's coming from a person who actually like cold weather in the appropriate seasons (i.e not summer!).
Not nice for wearing a suit mind you.
True, but I'm one for severe minima- I just love that deep cold feeling and the associated sights and sounds. The colder the better for me, well, in terms of UK cold. -40C in the Canadian arctic day after day would probably test my love of low temperatures.
Yeah, I do enjoy the odd novelty hot day or two, and the accompanying downpours/thunderstorms, but on a prolonged basis? - No thanks.
I still have nightmares about August 2003, I remember waking up in a tent on that record breaking day in a pool of sweat. I might have well have been in a greenhouse...
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Depressing to see such high temperatures just across the Channel while we get punished by yet more cool Atlantic crap. It's freezing here now.
Is it really too much to ask for one of these plumes not to get shunted just too far east?
34-36C? They can keep it! It got to about 21C here today and that's as warm as id like it to be - not a hint of a chill and not too hot to be out and about working in it. Perfect. I'd probably prefer 25-30C if I'm by the pool or on the beach abroad, but above that is unnecessary and starts to get uncomfortable, in my opinion of course.
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34.6c maximum not far from here.
first really hot day (>35°C) this year, maxed out at 36,3°C
Wow, that's really warm for early June. Surely some records broken?
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The minimum today is 9.2C while maxima look like reaching close to 17C, so an increase to around 11.9C is likely on tomorrows update.
After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:
12.0C to the 4th (12.3)12.8C to the 5th (16.3)12.6C to the 6th (11.5)12.5C to the 7th (11.7)12.3C to the 8th (10.9)12.1C to the 9th (10.3)11.9C to the 10th (10.4)11.9C to the 11th (12.0)12.0C to the 12th (13.0)Close to 2C below the 81-10 average by the 10th.Wow, it would take a decent warm spell just to get back to average from there.
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Can I change mine to the vacant 14.3C, please?14.2C, please.
Thanks. (Sorry Roger!)
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14.2C, please.
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I don't think we really need to define the seasons to set dates, unless you are keeping records and even then it's only for convenience; that's why we use the Meteorological definition.
In my opinion it's a bit moot arguing that March 1st is "Spring" when it's 2C at midday with snow flurries blowing about in a stiff wind, yet the day before was "winter" with pretty much identical conditions.
The seasons naturally expand and contract year by year, at least in terms of temperature and conditions.
Ultimately, for the average man/woman in the street the seasons are what they think they are, there's no real need for defined boundaries in my opinion.
Having said that, I do see the logic and merit in using a system that is constant. If you want to use such a system as a yardstick then fair enough, I or nobody else is going to stop you.
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All the ones: 11.1C, please.
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Over half way and well yes a very mild first half to the month, and now a very tall order to record an average month overall. Whilst we are unlikely to see any rise in the CET over the days ahead, nor are we likely to see any sharp drop, a gradual cooling off is projected, but a good chance we could still end up in the 9's which will mean an appreciably above average month CET wise.
Must say I wasn't expecting such a turn out, quite surprised how things have panned out and there was little sign in late March. Once again our weather continues to surprise us. April is always the hardest month to predict, patterns can be very stubborn at this time of year and its always a fine line between cold and very mild.
Pity it isn't May, I like April but feel the current synoptics would be far more valuable if it was May.
Yeah, the BBC had my location averaging around 6.5C for the first 5 days or so of April, this was in late March. It probably is the biggest "pick 'em" month of the year; it's the first that can see genuine warmth on a consistent basis, yet it's also capable of wintry weather on occasion, and even sustained cool/cold weather. It's that time of the year when summer starts to throw out the first jabs, but winter can still land an uppercut.
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Speaking as an October birthday girl, I think last year was truly rare and warm: my special beach-cafe meal of fresh mussels after a pleasant swim in the sea in Carlyon Bay, that doesn't normally happen! Plus camping in Hurricane Bertha, the night before she struck was intensely hot, sultry, tropical. Also, Midsummer party for my daughter: totally amazing hot sunny camping in the garden. I am probably selectively remembering the times I was actually most fearful it would be cold and wet, and it surely wasn't that.
To be fair the sea is pretty warm in September/October. I was born in early March, so I'd be brave to have a swim in the sea on my birthday - I'd probably end up with hypothermia!
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Yesterday was a reminder of the time of year, at least during the morning and early afternoon. The temp gauge on my van in work was showing 5.5C, whereas it was showing 12C at the same time the day before.
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It's quite strange to think that we are currently around the same temperature as an average October, despite the warmth so far this April. In my head I think of October as a cool and wet month, yet a much above average and warm feeling April spell is only on a par.
Goes to show how much impact the longer days and stronger sun has on the perception of temperatures.
July 2015 CET forecasts
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I'll go for 18C, on the nose.
That very warm start will be hard to erode in a month that has no real cooling trend.
Thanks.