Dave J

Leavenheath, South Suffolk at 60m ASL JANUARY 2006: Dull, anticyclonic, very dry. Average temperatures. No lying snow. Scenes common during January as anticyclonic gloom lingered; anemometer cast against overcast skies. A very dry month with very little rainfall at all. It was the driest month since August 2003 (the driest month on record) with just 12mm recorded. After an unsettled start with light rain showers, high pressure asserted itself to the NE over Scandinavia and remained dominating across Europe for much of the month. This allowed a cold continental flow to establish at times, notably around the 7th, 8th and also on the 24th when the mean temperature was just above -2C, although much of the frigid air was kept over the continent. Weak frontal systems from the Atlantic pushed through at times, especially from the 17th to the 20th, but high pressure soon reasserted itself close to or over the UK. Despite the dominance of high pressure, it was not a particuarly frosty month with mean overnight temperatures almost a degree above average. However this was more than compensated by dull, anticyclonic gloom by day which held temperatures 0.5C below the expected average and brought mean temperatures for the month just below the 1971-2000 average. TEMPERATURE Mean: 3.8C (-0.4C) Lowest in record: 3.0C, 2001; Highest in record: 5.2C, 2002 Maximum temperature : 9.9C (19) Lowest Maxima : 1.9C (24) Average Maxima : 5.8C (-0.5C) Minimum temperature : -4.2C (25) Highest Minima : 7.5C (19) Average Minima : 1.6C (+0.9C) RAINFALL Total rainfall : 12.0mm (24%) *2nd driest in record, record low for month of January. Max 24h total : 2.2mm (17) Days with >1mm : 5 (-6) Graph of temperature and rainfall for January 2006: http://img481.imageshack.us/img481/5559/january20067hg.jpg

I don't know how Brian compiles his forecasts, however: If he puts up pictures of polar bears in London and 1963 winter photographs with phrases such as "Big freeze", "Icy Blast" etc. then he is going to get masses of criticism for sensationalist long range forecasting when its goes completely wrong. The number of incorrect (and changed) forecasts that TWO have released on their front page are too many to mention. He predicted a 40C heatwave back in late July for early August (just because GFS F.I. had hinted at it) When I criticised him on TWO for doing this (just after the forecast was made), a barrage of TWO members supported Brian and completely believed him. Surprise, surprise it was 20C and mostly cloudy that week with the coolest August for 6 years.

This is from my weather records: September 2001 Mean temperature : 12.9C October 2001 Mean temperature : 13.0C

1530z radar showing light to moderate rain/sleet/hail showers now across coastal parts of Suffolk, Essex and North Kent - with one right over the Isle of Sheppey. Band of more moderate showers (mostly rain) has developed in the English Channel running showers into Normandy.

I'd disagree re: recent snow event in late December. Although on the 27th the temperature did rise above freezing between the snow showers, it only peaked at 0.8C in Leavenheath and there was very little thawing of snow. On the 28th, despite the mostly sunny skies the temperature peaked at just -0.5C, the first ice day I've recorded since January 2003, and many parts of Norfolk and Lincolnshire had frequent snow showers during the day with temperatures remaining at or below freezing.

For much of Europe its been a fairly cold and snowy winter- we in the UK as you say along with perhaps W Norway been on the edge of the anticyclone which has sometimes allowed mild, mobile weather to stream across us - but never for very long or very far into Europe (unlike recent winters). Sometimes the cold has penetrated as far west as the UK (late December, and this week) but for those outside of NE England, E England, Kent and not forgetting N Ireland, W Wales and Southwest England who had a great snow event in November (20cm's of snow up on Bodmin Moor) its been a relatively dull, cold and snow free winter so far.

What winter .. ?

The reason for the downgrade in temps on Sunday/Monday is not because of colder air advecting across the U.K. but that fog is expected to develop tonight and may be slow to clear during the day limiting temperatures where it persists all or much of the day.

I hope Daniel Corbett doesn't do the Countryfile forecast this week.. Should be a classic, although I think even by Sunday they will be hesitant to go into much detail for the end of next week.

I was only 1 so I don't remember it at all unfortunately. I've been told though that the maximum at RAF Wattisham on the 12th was just -8.0C and that the minimum that followed was an incrediably low -14.6C despite the strong E'ly winds! Temperatures did not rise above freezing for a week with strong winds drifting the powdery snow and cutting off many of the villages in Suffolk for several days.

The temperature at Tarko-Sale (cent. Siberia at 64.5N, 77.5W) dropped to -54.2C early on the 13th Jan, in the center of what is currently an intensely frigid airmass across the region. AAXX 13061 23552 31996 00901 11515 21551 30351 40394 57004 70400 333 21542= This airmass is expected to moderate slightly and advect slowly southwestward towards western Russia during next week.

REVIEW 2005 (Recorded at Leavenheath- Nr Sudbury, South Suffolk at 60m ASL) Mean Temperature : 10.4C (2004, 10.5C; 2003, 10.7C; 2002, 10.8C; 2001 10.2C) Maximum Temperature : 30.8C (19th June) Lowest Max : -1.7C (29th December) *Record lowest max Average Max : 14.5C Minimum Temperature : -5.2C (28th February) Average Min : 6.8C Wettest Month : 74.2mm (October 2005) Wettest Day : 28.4mm (10th September* *4th wettest day on record) Driest Month : 21.0mm (January 2005) Yearly Rain : 497.0mm (2004, 599.0mm; 2003, 389.8mm; 2002, 606.4mm; 2001 598.0mm) Snow lying at 09z : 9 Deepest cover : 5cm (30th December)

6.7C, overcast at 500ft with outbreaks of continuous light rain and drizzle. We haven't topped +7C since 24th Dec so count yourself lucky John!

Bright and clear though with a fair amount of Altostratus to our southwest acorss North Essex at present. 5.9°C, 5kn WSW'ly, 992mbar All yesterdays snow cover has gone, apart from the slight drifts where some patches still lie - though it won't be long before they are gone too.

Late entries here too.. all taken Dec. 28th.

It's -3.6C here and completely overcast. I suspect we may even record another ice day here. Snow depth remains 2cm's this morning, the 3rd consecutive day of snow cover!

Light snow showers o/n. Snow depth around 2cm still. Currently just -2.0C and completely clear skies. Picture below was taken looking Southwest at 0954z.

Snowcover still only 2cm's, had some further light snow showers earlier with the temperature close to freezing. Skies have cleared now and the temperature is nosediving, dropped to -1.9C already!

We had a heavy snow shower around 1830z, was particuarly gusty with it- not sure on depth, but all areas that did manage a slight thaw are covered again so I would estimate 2 or 3cm. Clear skies now however.

Huge clearance now in Suffolk, temperature has risen to dead on freezing, 0.0C. Still 2cm's lying, but a bit of a thaw setting in where the sun is reaching. Taken looking Southwest at 1128Z. Organised snow looking very interesting on latest satellite imagery out in the North Sea...

Looking North at 0925Z.

Continuous light snow here now with the sun out, temperature is -0.4C. Looking very festive! Some dark clouds to the Northeast. Snow depth at 09Z was 2cm, this is the first day of lying snow here in Leavenheath since March 4th, 2005.

Here was the scene at 0804Z, about 2cm lying currently.

Recent snow shower here, temperature is -1.0C currently. Still snowing albeit lightly; hopefully some more on the way soon!

October 2005: Recorded at Leavenheath, Suffolk, 60m AMSL Very mild (joint warmest in my records with 2001), cool and dry to start- becoming much warmer around the 10th before becoming unsettled but remaining mild- especially at night. Worth also mentioning that October 2005 was warmer than May 2005. Overnight minimum temperatures are the highest I've ever recorded in October- in itself above the expected mean temperature(!) The maximum temperatures were also well above average, though, not as high above the average as minimum temperatures. The very warm October follows from the warmest ever September in my records, making a fairly good chance that this will be the warmest Autumn in my 6 year record. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stats: (dif. from 71-00 average in brackets) (figures in bold brackets refer to date of month) TEMPERATURE Mean temperature : 13.0C* (+2.6C) 2004: 10.6C; 2003: 8.7C * Joint warmest in record, ties with October 2001 (13.0C) Maximum temperature : 20.8C (11) Lowest Maxima : 12.8C (18) Average Maxima : 16.4C (+2.5C) Minimum temperature : 4.8C (3) Highest Minima : 15.1C (12) Average Minima : 10.6C (+3.4C) RAINFALL Total rainfall : 74.2mm (130%) Max 24h total : 17.2mm (24) Days with >1mm : 11 (+2) Graph of temperature and rainfall recorded in October 2005: