Dave J

Remains at 2.6C today http://www.climate-uk.com Now requires a daily mean of 9C over the 14th-31st period to get it up to average, and a 5.9C mean to get it to equal the cold March of 1996.

You get even more impressive thermal gradients in the summer between the north and south of a slow moving frontal wave. It can set off some impressive thunderstorms too!!

Here's some METARs from places reporting snow this morning: Manchester Airport: Moderate snow METAR COR EGCC 121020Z 13019G30KT 6000 SN FEW013 BKN022 M00/M05 Q1027 TEMPO 3000 -SN BKN007= Liverpool Airport: Heavy snow in 25 kn winds at -1C !!! Blizzard. METAR EGGP 121020Z 14025KT 0900 R09/1400 +SN SCT005 BKN008 M01/M03 Q1027 SNOCLO= Carlisle: Light snow, -2C METAR EGNC 121020Z 15016G28KT 1500 -SN OVC002 M02/M02 Q1024= Blackpool Airport: Moderate snow, -1C METAR EGNH 121020Z 12021KT 1500 SN SCT000 BKN008 M01/M02 Q1026 109925//= Leeds/Bradford Airport: Light snow, -3C METAR EGNM 121020Z 15012KT 3000 -SN SCT004 BKN010 M03/// Q1028= Newcastle: Light snow, -1C METAR EGNT 121020Z 18011KT 4000 -SN FEW015 BKN035 M01/M04 Q1027= Tees-side: Light snow, -1C METAR EGNV 121020Z 18018KT 4500 -SN FEW015 SCT017 BKN038 M01/M03 Q1028= East Midlands (Nottingham/Derby): Moderate snow, -1C METAR EGNX 121020Z 15013KT 4000 SN BKN020 M01/M04 Q1030= Aberdeen Dyce: Moderate snow, 0C METAR EGPD 121020Z 18020KT 1000 R16/1300 SN FEW005 BKN008 OVC015 M00/M01 Q1022 NOSIG 1662//99= Inverness: Moderate snow, 0C METAR EGPE 121020Z 19024G35KT 2500 SN FEW009 SCT011 BKN030 00/M01 Q1016= Glasgow Airport: Light snow, -1C METAR EGPF 121020Z 05006KT 4000 -SN BKN010 OVC020 M01/M01 Q1022 055/99//= Edinburgh Airport: Light snow, -1C METAR EGPH 121020Z 15010KT 090V250 3000 -SN FEW002 SCT011 BKN032 00/M02 Q1021 06910194=

Can I change my mind now?

That's interesting Ian, thanks for putting it together. ECMWF is my model of preference when looking at the T120 - T168 timeframe and to see it score 9/10 is indeed very encouraging. I think it's also had a pretty good handle on the situation for next week, but time tell will I suppose. Interesting to see the JMA score high- usually one of the less seriously taken models in that timeframe.

The sea has a much higher specific heat capacity and can store heat for a much longer period and therefore lags behind the change in temperature over land (which has a much lower specific heat capacity). Its response to the cold conditions will take a considerable time, having said that temperatures in the Nth Sea have probably dropped by a few tenths of a degree over the last few days! Interestingly the sea around East Anglia and the southeast is now down to +5C, which is getting on for a degree BELOW average!

Leavenheath AWS, South Suffolk at 60m ASL FEBRUARY 2006: Cold start, becoming mobile, mild, windy and wet mid-month and then cold and dry again later. Overall temperatures around average, above average by night and below average by day. Rainfall approx. 75% of the average. Average in brackets compares observed with the 1971-2000 mean at Wattisham airfield which is appoximately 10 miles NE of the station. TEMPERATURE Mean: 3.4C (–0.2C) Lowest in record: 3.3C, 2005; Highest in record: 6.6C, 2002 Maximum temperature : 10.4C (15) Lowest Maxima : –0.3C (2)* Lowest in record for February. Previous lowest was +1.2C (1st, 2001) Average Maxima : 5.9C (–0.7C) Minimum temperature : –2.9C (3) Highest Minima : 7.1C (13) Average Minima : 1.3C (+0.6C) RAINFALL Total rainfall : 26.2mm (75%) Max 24h total : 7.0mm (12) Days with >1mm : 8 (0) Graph of temperature and rainfall for February 2006: http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/5186/fe...6762x4647kr.jpg

The highest recorded temperature at my parents house AWS was just +10.4C. The last time that +11C was recorded was November 11th which is now 111 days ago. Only 53% of the average rainfall was recorded over the 3 month period and temperatures were around average (0.3C below) but by day they were almost a degree below average, and so had nights been clearer we may have had a much colder winter. We had below average snow with only 4 days recorded when it was lying at 09Z and 5cm as the maximum total depth. However, just a slight change in synoptics and further weakening of the Atlantic jet would have easily brought the very cold and snowy weather that dominated Europe (-30C in Russia, -15C in Germany and heavy snows for S France, Italy and the Alpine regions) during January across to our shores and we'd have been having a very different conversation today when summing up the winter. Close but no cigar sums it up for me..

In 2001 I recorded a mean of +5.5C; March 2004 came close to being that cold and as you say last March started off very cold with frequent sub zero minima and barely above freezing maxima. Something we look to repeat this year albeit with slightly higher maxima, but I think we'll get a warm spell like last year mid-month- at least in the south anyway. Even in the relatively cold March 2001 we still managed +17C, but only just on the last day of the month! :lol:

A cold and wet March like 2001 says BBC Nottinghams Terry Scholey: http://www.bbc.co.uk/nottingham/weather/lo..._forecast.shtml

Here is a list of the last 10 March CETs: 1996 4.5C 1997 8.4C 1998 7.9C 1999 7.4C 2000 7.6C 2001 5.2C 2002 7.6C 2003 7.5C 2004 6.5C 2005 7.2C I'll go for 6.6C which is 0.3C above the 1971-2000 average, because although there will be a very cold start, I feel that it will be more than balanced by very warm settled spells mid-month.

Well Spring (and March) starts in just over 3 days and with a fairly cold end to winter I would expect a fairly unsettled and wet start to spring, however it will most likely turn anticyclonic at some point in mid-March with some warm spring sunshine to be enjoyed but still the risk of some quite sharp overnight frosts. The colder than average North Sea and snow covered Europe may suppress temperatures from time to time when anticyclones drift north and pull in an Northeasterly, Easterly or Southeasterly flow. I think overall it'll probably be a slightly above average March with a warm spell mid-month offsetting the predicted cold snap for next week. That said, I could be completely wrong.

That's a great explanation T.M. Thanks.

It has been a very cold winter across parts of Central and Eastern Europe: Moscow for instance recorded a negative 2.45C anomaly over the past 90 days. Berlin also recorded a negative 1.8C anomaly for the last 90 days: Even parts of the UK have recorded below average temperatures over the winter: Manston (southeast) -0.26C : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/glob.../tn03797_90.gif Bournemouth -0.99C : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/glob.../tn03862_90.gif

There was snow on the ground for a long period of time but there was never very much as it kept thawing I think. Several snowmen lasted for 2 weeks or more though. Feb '96 was the last time I saw a truly deep cover and drifting of the snow, I remember on one side of the garden (facing northeast) the snow was over 20cm deep. Happy days! B)

After Christmas we got about 5cm max. I heard up Ipswich way they had a lot more- I guess that's because your nearer the east coast. Oh well, there's always next winter. :blink:

I remember this week because it was Half-Term I think and I had the dentist on Monday morning and I remember saying to my Mum that it was going to snow heavily overnight and I wouldn't be able to go in the morning! Sunday the 18th was a classic old skool cold front from the north day with heavy rain but low temperatures; it then snowed heavily overnight but we still were able to drive into Sudbury to the dentist on Monday morning. :blink: I remember the sun came out and most of the snow had thawed by the afternoon which was quite upsetting for a 10 year old- especially when watching This Morning with Richard and Judy and seeing it snowing heavily there, but I watched the BBC 2 forecast at around 3 and I can't remember who was doing the forecast but he showed heavy snow on the radar over East Anglia. Lo and behold 15 minutes later and a total blizzard started and covered the ground with a couple of inches within minutes, further showers developed overnight and drifted in the strong winds giving a deep cover by Tuesday morning. I remember it continuing cold with light snow showers on and off on Tuesday and Wednesday until Thursday when some milder and moister air from west brought some sleet and then eventually rain. It then rained hard throughout the weekend with temperatures rising into the high single digits thawing all of the snow. Oh and when we got back to school at Stoke by Nayland, we found that the pipes had burst in our classroom flooding the floors so we had to move out for 2 weeks into the science lab! It was the last time I saw more than 10cm of snow lying...

Is it possible to add a table into a post?

Last time snow observed in March: 4th March 2005 in Reading, only around 1cm lying however. At home in Leavenheath my mum reported 4cm's of snow on the same morning. There was a fall of 5cm snow in Leavenheath on 25th February 2001 (close to the start of March) from a trough moving south, but before that it would probably be 1995 or so. Doubt very much I will see lying snow this year as we haven't had any lying snow since the year started, but you never know!

Looking through some old Journal of Met. articles and the TORRO database I found out that a tornado was reported from Pentlow (on the Essex/Suffolk border just NW of Sudbury) on this day. This is only about 12 miles from Leavenheath as the crow flies.

This skew-T for today at Nottingham (12Z): http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?r...1012&STNM=03354 has a raw data output with it: http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?r...1012&STNM=03354 This lists Pressure, height (meters), temp, dew point, relative humidity, Mixing ratio, Wind direction, wind speed. If you scroll to the bottom of that page it has all the useful parameters: Convective Available Potential Energy: 0.35 Convective Inhibition: -28.07 Equilibrum Level: 806.50 Level of Free Convection: 831.78 Pres [hPa] of the Lifted Condensation Level: 916.94 Precipitable water [mm] for entire sounding: 8.75 So you can see there is little CAPE, quite a bit of CIN limiting convection, the EL is very low (806hPa) so you wouldn't expect cloud tops to be high, and the LCL is 916hPa (about 900m) so that's where you'd expect cloud base to form, probably only flat cumulus spreading into stratocumulus because of the low Equilibrium level (Inversion) present. You can also see that 8.75mm of rain would be produced if deep convection occured. Check out this site for soundings all over the world with an archive back to 1973!! http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html And this is a random sketch to show what the Sc/Cu clouds formed would look like in height.

Maybe it would be a good idea to use a real convective situation and then try to make a forecast using a Skew-T from that day, and then compare this with what actually happened. You could even use a "live" case study if the weather plays ball next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119990413.gif http://www.wetterzentraleforum.de/archive/...cka19990413.gif As you can see, the 13th April 1999 was characterised by a typical unstable showery N'ly flow which often happens during this month and can probably explain the well used phrase "April showers", but can also bring about some sharp late frosts. However on this particular day one shower around 4pm was much more violent than most and I believe produced a tornado or at least a very strong gust front near to my parents house. The Nottingham ascent for the day (see below) shows that the atmosphere was moist in the lower layers and had an ELR that fell sharply with height- creating instability and the generation of rain/hail/snow showers with no doubt some thunder mixed in too. Tops were relatively (though not greatly high) at around 450hPa. Also note the wind shear on the skew-T with a great change between the nr surface (250deg 17knots) to the what is known as Level 6 height (925hPa) where winds are 290deg 37knots! In my weather diary for the day which I kept when I was at Middle and Upper School it reads: Sunshine and heavy showers of sleet, hail and snow- very strong gusts afternoon Max: 9.1C Min: 2.6C Precipitation: 5.0mm Wind direction: North Wind speed: 6mph Max wind gust: 57mph Wind chill: 0C Min wind chill: -11C Pressure: 999mbars Now I remember clearly, when I got home from school- getting myself a drink in the kitchen and both me and my mum were talking. Quite suddenly the wind REALLY got up and I mean REALLY. The oak tree at the bottom of the garden was blowing fully like it was being pulled out of it's roots. The direction of movement was to the northwest (i.e. the wind gust was from the southeast) despite the synoptic wind being Northerly. I hurried upstairs to see what the weather station had logged and saw the 57mph and couldn't believe it- to date that is the highest gust I have recorded with even the strongest Autumn storms only reaching 50mph (although in October 2002 it may have reached higher however it was down for repair at the time ironically). The next day I spoke a few people who live in the village and heard numerous reports of wind damage including my friend's shed door which for some bizarre reason was propped shut by a brick, being flung open hurling the brick across the garden by the gust. I also heard about some damage to the local St. Matthew's church spire and talk of a possible tornado, but really thought nothing else of it at the time. To this date I never solved the mystery of the Leavenheath "freak gust", only knowing that atmospheric conditions were very unstable on the day and that it was not that unusual to see such a gust occur. Does anyone have any particular memories of this day, especially living in the south Suffolk/ north Essex area?

Ozz, I saw your question on UKww, but didn't want to answer it just incase Nick Verge told me my interpretation was odd again!! You know what he is like. The CAPE, CIN, LFC, EL and other parameters are calculated by computer algorithms. So when you view a tephigram or Skew-T, it should be included within it or somewhere on it. CAPE is the vertically integrated positive buoyancy of an air parcel experiencing adiabatic ascent, and is basically the area between the environmental curve and a line taken from the LFC (Level of free convection) along a saturated adiabat up to the EL (Equilibrium level). You can get many types of CAPE; SBCAPE (Surface based CAPE) MLCAPE (Mean layer CAPE) which all have their relative strengths and weaknesses for estimating instability, and it differs between forecasters which is used most in what situations. CIN is convective inhibition and is the integrated negative buoyancy of an air parcel, and represents the amount of energy required to lift an air parcel through a layer that is warmer than it. LFC - the level of free convection is the height at which a parcel lifted adiabatically from the surface, becomes saturated at the LCL (Lifting condensation level) and then also becomes warmer than the surrounding layer of air as it is lifted up a saturated adiabat. (I.e. CAPE is avaliable) The equilibrium level (EL) is simply where on a sounding, at a level above the level of free convection (LFC) where the temperature of a rising air parcel again equals the temperature of the environment. The height of the EL is the height at which thunderstorm updrafts no longer accelerate upward, though they can overshoot in certain circumstances. This leads to an approximate estimate of thunderstorm or convective cloud tops! See attached diagram.

Welcome back John. Hope you had a good time, it's been as dull as ditchwater here the past week so you haven't missed much.