smhouston
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Posts posted by smhouston
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Must admit I'm quite despondent this morning. NW just don't deliver for me snow wise usually so not expecting anything at all. Pretty annoying as I was quite confident that low to the NE would shift a bit to give us a N/NE and thus plenty of activity from north sea
I'm getting to the age now where I want it to snow otherwise I'd rather get to the spring warmth
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Are people just forgetting this isn't a high just sitting over us? That is a very juicy low in the NE pulling from an extremely cold pool over a warm sea...it's almost impossible not to have anything generated from that. Then you have the addition of what the Atlantic sends our way too
The precipitation charts are useless until a lot closer, like within days of occurring
very good again this morning, everything heading the right way so far with regards to have a period of colder weather
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49 minutes ago, Salem said:
Hi can someone tell me if you can exclude posts from certain users please, A few in the MAD thread need to go
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That main thread annoys me to hell....my ignore list is growing and growing. Thank you @Scott Inghamfor asking how to do it!
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12 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:
Upgrades all round today and the 18z just tips it,...good old pub classic.
The white patch right bang of the middle of the UK with no snow is where I live so bound to be true
In all seriousness I'm not going to worry about the finer details like precipitation yet. It's clear though things are going back on track with the ECM steadily improving. Very positive day to be honest. Still think there will be twist and turns and will be compromises at some point, but at least the date in question is still the date things are revolving around
Get the cold in, and in these sort of setups the snow will definitely follow. These next few days model watching are going to be fascinating and tantalising
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11 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Ok got it, if the output is suggesting cold ignore it.
save looking at all the science and output I guess.
No, but just take FI with a huge pinch of salt though, with FI being T96+ when cold is suggested. I know sometimes it's hard keeping that excitement in with some of the charts produced, we've all been there. Things have gone Pete tongue before at T48 despite cross model agreement though
There was a lot of over excitement yesterday at things too far in advance, some of the comparisons to past years was way OTT. Cross model agreement means sod all, get the first incursion of cold in first, which we look to start doing next week, then see what comes next
Not good output so far for a decent cold snowy spell but things can easily swing the other way, models really struggle with these situations. There are still the other background signals the more knowledgeable posters have been saying too which I'm sure won't have suddenly changed
As ever in model watching, more runs needed
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To be honest, I'm not expecting anything substantial from this spell (from my location view). Easterlies are always classed as a holy grail yet they rarely come good for us in Yorkshire. NE / N is where it's at for us usually
Sure it'll be cold, easterlies do deliver that for us, but except a few showers it'll be relatively dry. No doubt I'll be proved wrong though
Does look like it's going to be bitter. Not good for me currently suffering from man flu
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Unfortunately it was a bit too late to go to anywhere more scenic
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Ended up having a nice walk yesterday evening to try take it in. The main roads was pretty clear and it was clear the snow was melting to some degree, this was at around 6pm - 8pm. Been out this morning and thankfully the snow is still here and there was a nice crunch to it this morning. I'll try post some pictures later. Unfortunately I couldn't get that many scenic ones because it was a bit too late / dark last night
Lovely to see snow again
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1 minute ago, Premier Neige said:
BBC has heavy snow into the evening for our location (I'm in Wath) if it's to be believed....
You're not far from me (Chapeltown) but ours is only showing light snow for the rest of the afternoon
Must admit, I'm a bit surprised we don't have more depths here. Don't get me wrong, this isn't a moan, I'm delighted that I've got some and I'll be going out in it after work. However, it's been snowing constantly since about 7:30am and it was already settling come 8am so I thought we'd have more of a build up. We're probably at 1-2 inch but footprints left on my road from early this morning are still clearly visible. Just curious as to why that may be
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14 minutes ago, Craigers said:
Metoffice have it in their description haha. Looks like surprises all week if this carries on
There is no warnings on the site? Although, they usually are late with them
However, current forecasted temperatures are around 6c for Monday so still not sure it's true? Maybe it's for a lot further North than us?
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Covered here, didn't take long at all to do so. Just got a neighbour in a TT trying to drive up my road, no chance! Probably say it's moderate snow about 1cm deep
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I'm still in bed but apparently it's just turned to snow. North Sheffield at 125m asl
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Doesn't the latest ECM show no snow event for Sheffield on Thursday though?
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Does look like Sheffield (north) will *just* miss out on tonight's action. Very very close
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8 minutes ago, Kentspur said:
GFS op was a clear mild outlier as expected ensembles look fantastic-these for my location NW Kent
Sorry but that's not a mild outlier with it having support from other ensembles
Not too concerning yet though. Until this pattern starts setting itself there will be many variations being thrown up
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9 minutes ago, Craigers said:
If this chart happens I bet this forum will go mental!!! Please come true
My lack of knowledge, but albeit cold, wouldn't that just provide dry conditions for us with the low being so far south and us just being affected by the high? Maybe just a few rogue showers
I know you can't predict any sort of precipitation until < 24 hours
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49 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
Well continue to cool very marginally with potential for small near time disturbamces until new years eve with each attempt a little less marginal.
Well stay on the right side of the jet until betweem the 4th and 6th of January when the next rise of AAM will see us get close to charts shown on the 12z. Imitially heights will be near scandi from this time bringing in the risk of easterly winds and snow showerd depending on upper air temperatures (these do matter in a convective set up off the north sea due to above average sst's)
The high pressure will stay high over scandi while retrogressing and building first into iceland then into Greenland where there is am expected ssw which is imcreasingly looking likely as a split sometime on or just after the second week in january.
Heieghts then look to intensify further into Greenland and iceland as we get a big injection of very cold air into russia and scandinavia as the split looks to leave the biggest lobe im this location currently.
As easterly reversed winds kick in this when the exceptionally cold air arrives from the east in a long fetched easterly.
Looking at the strength of the ssw id expect this to take us into february ans beyond
I cant stress how severe January looks to potentially be and this forecast from the first week in december is now backed up by chio and catacol along with some exceptional professiomal forecasters who work for the metoffice and the US met.
Im extremeley confident about thie scenario.
I havnt swayed once and have called each week correct since the start of December
Its all panning out perfectly
Cheers for replying and forecasting. When you say how severe, I assume you're talking from a temperature point of view? I assume then that means any significant snowfall we are probably looking at the Greenland high producing us via nothernlies from the Arctic rather than anything from the initial leading up to / setting up of the Greenland high? I've always been skeptical of SSW events because they never seem to do what people think. However, the ensembles are looking extremely consistent across the board, like ridiculously so and at a long period too, something I've not seen since I joined here 16 years ago. There just feels like there is something different this time although I'm not yet on the severe cold spell ramping team
Also, I saw your comment about Thames freezing over (which may or may not have been tongue in cheek) but wouldn't the generally higher sea temperatures put a stop to that anyway?
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3 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:
Its incredibly excited.
I dont think people fully grasp what we are staring down.
We are looking at another 63 or 47 if things unravel!
Steady on with the ramping
I've seen you say you're more of a long ranger, so how do you see this next month panning out for the Yorkshire region? Are we looking north, north east or east? I don't think we'll get anything in the next few days so it'd be good to know what we should be looking out for and when (with regards to snow)
Obviously not expecting it to be nailed on, just a prediction, so no pressure. You can claim the credit if right though
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43 minutes ago, The PIT said:
I wouldn't be surprised if that feature disappeared on tonight run. 06oz has the Snow well to our west overnight tonight. Some showers may reach South Yorkshire later this afternoon but if they do likely to be rain away from the moors. Annoyingly there some showers to the north of us but they are not coming this way. Sadly for us frost looks the most likely white stuff. Grrr.
Agree with this. Frustrating seeing other places potential get snow. I used to think Sheffield was great for snow but we are so centralised it's hard to get some with the Pennines blocking any westward approach and easterlies usually not strong enough
I do tend to hate it when people say got to look at the bigger picture and like 10+ days because whenever that's said it never materialises. Same with supposed warming events which rarely produce anything. I do feel this is a better shot though, not seen consistently cold ensembles for a long time.
Keeping my glass half full. It would sum up my winter / year if we don't get anything though and with SWFC getting relegated too
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Firstly, just want to apologise for my moaning yesterday, definitely noticed I've been in a rubbish mood this week so think I was just a bit more irritable than normal. Not sure why, I usually love this time of year. Maybe it's just the year has finally taken its toll
Anyway, feeling very seasonal outside this year - feels freezing! Nearly crashed yesterday on some unexpected black ice. Just need a bit of frost now to reinforce it (preferably snow). Sure beats the rubbish Xmas weather we usually get
Not looking promising for us in the E / NE next week. Feels like we usually miss out nowadays. Got to get the cold in first though then hopefully more promising things will follow
Merry Xmas / happy holidays all
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37 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Hoping to see a reduction in the milder members at the end of the next GEFS suite , about 40% went above average from 5th Jan on the 06z suite. Not getting worried yet...just don’t want it to become a trend or increase.
I honestly wouldn't be worried about 5th Jan onwards at the minute with and even the subtlest of changes before that will effect it. FI will always be wild even if locked in to a severe winter. Models don't handle cold all that well and if we get in to a position where we are in a cold period the models *usually* are too progressive.
For me the period before hand is really encouraging based on those London ones. Great clustering together of the ensembles (850s). Obviously the uncertainty is elsewhere i.e. Aberdeen. However, even that is encouraging in that even though at even T72 we see quite big differences of near enough 8~ around the 27th-29th they still end with a relatively cold outcome:
Get that period up to the New Year locked in first then hopefully we shall get further positive steps towards something more substantial widespread with the preceding coldness helping any snow potential
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8 minutes ago, Wynter said:
And to flip that, how can you ridicule the mod thread for discussing said charts when the actual weather hasn't happened yet.
I think some people view the mod thread incorrectly. It isn't a forecast thread, it isn't there for 100% accuracy of what is about to take place. It's there, purely and simply to discuss the models and what they are showing. Be that a bit of wind tonight, or snowmaggedon in 10 days time. If it's in the charts it's open for discussion.
and that is a fair point and I don't mind people discussing all those charts outputted (as unlikely as even the FI stuff is to happen). It's the fact they are claiming it is going to happen and shoving it in the "experts" (at lack of the thinking of a better word, there are very many amateur enthusiasts who I'd see as experts too) faces i.e. Meto; just because they don't show charts they are hoping for. Basically smearing someones credibility and newer members getting confused.
3 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:
I had a quick look through your post history and couldn't find one positive post. Even when you had snow you put a negative spin on it.
Don't want to sound harsh but what's the point of being on this forum if your main objective is to moan?Out of curiosity, is that where my history only goes up to 2018? If not, I'm curious where you've seen the rest of my posting history seems I've been a member since 2004. Even still, the lack of winter for the past half a decade is going to be a recipe for moaning posts, especially when things are ramped up and fail to deliver anything but a few showers with no accumulations (which I imagine is the post you're referring to). I remember back in the day having weather presenters showing sweeping snow symbols throughout the country - the true widespread disruptive snow. Nowadays, just getting a snow flurry seems to be like trying to find a needle in a haystack.
Like many on here, the winter synoptics and the hunt for snow are the fascinating things that draw us in hence my only venturing on during the winter seasons. Not that I should really be having to explain my reasons for being on here
Anyway, the block button is useful and I should have used it sooner rather than getting wound up. I just didn't know who the extreme rampers are and I try to only do it as a last resort because I do like to see everyone's opinions on the near term charts and how they may evolve
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18 minutes ago, Wynter said:
Well why don't you go into the mod thread, find some charts and then post why you don't agree with what's been posted?
Or is it that your only contribution to this forum is to moan about other members contributing to the forum?
Some of you in here really need to give it a rest. This is not the "moan about other members thread". Weather only!
I know that isn't a reply to my post but it could be applied, so how can you post something to disprove someone when things haven't happened? It's just known that things so so far out don't verify, so going crazy about them stating the other experts are already wrong is misleading to other newer members who don't know that
In upcoming cold spells the general rule of thumbs is T72-T120 take with a huge dose of skepticism, T120+ have a laugh then chuck away. Unfortunately cold spells in the UK are notoriously hard to model hence why we've had one at T48 scrapped despite model unity quite a few years ago. Although, to be that close to then be scuppered is a very rare thing indeed
Anyway, started sleeting ever so slightly here. Does feel very cold though which is a nice seasonal change. I do find the netweather forecast interesting though....apparently I might be due some torrential fog next week
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Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion
Posted
Says snow this morning for Sheffield but cannot see it happening. Peak district has always been a snow stopper from westerly snow