Mixer 85
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Posts posted by Mixer 85
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22 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:
Hmmm, not the charts I just looked at. Looks likely between Dec 25th and jan 1st.
Quite right Rochey. Everything seems to be shaping up nicely. Also worth noting @mountain shadow SSW was never progged to have an effect over the Christmas period. The delayed strat/trop response due to downwelling means that if we’re on the lucky side we likely won’t see any effect until early Jan at best. The potential cold over Christmas is to be driven by other teleconnective forcings (far beyond my ken) which the models will likely struggle with so expect plenty of flip flopping in the coming days.
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Jeez what a day!!
Totally agree with Neiller22 with regard to dropping of the cold signal for Christmas only to gather pace again in the coming days. It’s always unfolds this way as the models struggle to make sense of the volatility. I just wish that people in the MAD thread would realise this and acquire the ability to look beyond current output. It’s tiresome wading through the doom and gloom “it’s not gonna snow until March “ rubbish!
I’m by no means convinced that it’s going to happen but I’m certainly aware of the potential and with that comes great enthusiasm and excitement. For many years I’ve stared at flat zonal charts with E Canada farting low after low at us. Well this year appears to be different thankfully and I expect lots to look forward to. So much so that I left two spare wheels with the local garage man, with instructions to have snow tyres on em before Christmas Worst case scenario they’ll gather dust in the shed but hopefully over the coming weeks I’ll be out in the snow with my fingers falling off as I grip the wheel brace
Anyway nice to come in here and see a lot of positive realism. Keep the faith folks. It’s that glimmer of hope that has us here after all.
Micheal
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Hello all. Haven’t popped in here for a while, so was pleased to find a few pages of very enjoyable content.
I’m quietly confident with regard to potential cold during the festive period. Paying attention to certain folk on the mod thread/strat thread whom I wouldn’t consider to be typical rampers has me believing that we may be on the cusp of an exceptional winter. Teleconnections looking favorable for renewed blocking around Christmas, with hopefully enough oomph and in a location that would deliver the goods. With a bit of luck the models will start showing stronger signals of this in the coming days.
Following on from this, there’s a lot of musings about a wave 2 SSW later in January which could certainly deliver the goods for a good lengthy period. I keep thinking back to a post from GP back in early November I believe “think of it like a lorry about to jack knife” (wrt to the polar vortex)....well to that I say YES PLEASE!! and hopefully the icy load comes spilling down on top of us!!
Anyway, still all to play for and plenty of time to play too. Hope you all are well and feeling festive.
Micheal
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On 18/07/2018 at 22:29, Rocheydub said:
Looks like we'll be on the cooler side of that intense heat they're expecting in SE England next week, and I'm kind of thankful for that. I mean, I like extreme weather, but I would fail to function in any capacity in over 35 degC. That's something you need to become accustomed to IMO. We're kind of on a knife edge in regards to what sort of weather we'll have as we're a lot closer to the trough than England, especially where I am now, in SW Ireland.
PS, it's gorgeous here, virtually a clear sky all day, into the low 20's and sun shining while we played beach games and swam. Best country in the world when the sun shines (and when it snows heavily.)
Hey Rochey, glad you’re enjoying your trip to Kerry.
Any thoughts on how we’ll fair out with regards to thunderstorms? Will missing the extreme heat leave us under damp cloudy fronts or would our proximity to the low have us under the battleground sector with lots of beefy storms to enjoy?
Thanks in advance
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Like the last easterly I wonder if we’ll see further upgrades as we get nearer to T0? Kinda over cold now and would like to see some pleasant spring warmth but then again, extraordinary weather events are the reason for my interest in weather so won’t be complaining if we see an extraordinarily cold event for the time of year. Interesting times to say the least ?
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23 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:
Me and you both brother! I thoroughly enjoyed this event, though quite short lived, it was very memorable! I'll still pop into the MOD thread into summer and here from time to time, as we generally do stay-cations so need to pick out the Spanish plumes for camping!!! But I reckon we will see a huge downturn in traffic both here and the MOD thread.
Aye, it’s getting to that time of year where the Convective Discussion thread will be in full swing. Hopefully after a winter reminiscent of old we’ll see summer follow suit with long hot sunny periods and earth trembling thunderstorms a plenty! ?
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Made it for a stroll up the local hill today (Louchcrew Cairns) The snow depths made it very tough going, walking on top of the snow one second then ending up waist deep.
Brought a surfboard too which was great craic! My friend had a make shift sleigh which we repeatedly went over an 8ft ledge of a snow drift on. Fun afternoon but totally wrecked now.
The views were absolutely stunning, like a beautiful painting.
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5 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:
It’s totally unexpected to be fair. Light snow yes but not this. Which is great of course.
According to Met Eireann, temperatures remain close to zero over Ulster with a band of rain moving northward across the country. Hopefully that will lead to further snowfall up north.
I’m hoping to get some snow out of it here. Fingers crossed ?
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Delighted to see you guys are finally getting a good pasting. Hopefully it keeps for a while ?
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It’s utterly awful what went on in Dublin tonight! Can’t help but feel ashamed of the scum that are painting such a disgusting picture of our country, given that it will undoubtably be on international news.
One would imagine that during such an historic weather event, a banding together of people and a sense of community would prevail, not the complete opposite!! Can’t imagine that sort of thing happening back in 1947/82
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What’s the chances of the heavy stuff in the Irish Sea moving west?
I haven’t followed models or forecasts at all today, think I’m burnt out after being glued to it for the past couple of weeks. Would be great to see a further top up as I plan a climb up Sliabh na Cailleagh tomorrow. Highest point in Meath so should be pretty spectacular up there. I’ll take plenty of pics to share with all in here.
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Friend sent me these from outside Old
castle
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Sister sent me these from Carlanstown Meat
h
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My brother just sent me these...
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Ventured out for a quick spin around Oldcastle and took these pics. The roads are mostly single lane and just about passable in places. Can only imagine what it’s like in other parts of the country.
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Of course I had to go for a dip too?5BD555B9-63A9-4220-A247-1A8299CA6DB3.MOV
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Remarkable weather at the moment, certainly a historic event in the making. Took a stroll to the pub earlier and took the following pics. Never seen anything like it before and hoping for more to come ?
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Afternoon all,
Long time lurker who’s been thoroughly enjoying the buzz of this thread over the past few months.
Next week is currently looking like it will be quite exceptional. Snow showers aplenty for many of us with a good risk of more organized potential later in the week.
Met Eireann have just issued a yellow warning, expecting severe cold and disruptive snowfall, extending to the 2nd March.
This event has gained serious traction across the all model suites over the past number of days and I for one am taking note. Come Sunday when some of the finer details are being ironed out I think I’ll be racing around stocking up on food, fuel and beer.
Something truly memorable may be afoot and I hope all of you guys get to enjoy. ?
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I've never embedded a video before so hope this works. Also hope it's ok to post this here.
Well Put together video animation of sferic activity over the past 7 days courtesy of Irish Weather Online (Facebook)
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MSh5BjLChuw?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Didn't work out as planned but definitely worth a click
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The last week has been pretty epic for convective activity in Ireland. Had a few decent storms myself, Sunday being the best. Had a pretty active storm pass over head preceded by huge convective rain drops, I didn't see anything other than sheet lightning but had loud rumbles almost every minute. I then went to the top of Slieve na Cailleach (the local hill, highest in Meath I think) after the cell passed and the view was amazing. The cell was huge and I could hear almost constant rumbling the whole time I was there. Again didn't see any lightning through the dark rain curtain.
Also Monday was pretty amazing for just sheer sky-scape, I thing I just heard one or two distant rumbles as electrical activity was kicking to my east but the clouds and anvils more than made up for the lack of explosions.
Hopefully lots more to come and especially for the few who have missed out to date. Happy storm hunting folks, be safe
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Hi Watcher, nice to read a bit about the Irish potential.
I've been closely following the convective discussion thread but unfortunately not allot of talk about this side of the pond. Certainly shaping up to be an exciting start to the week. My only fear at this stage is there seems to be allot of talk about the models shifting the fun and games further east. Not sure how that will effect us in terms of intensity? I'm guessing home grown storms will still be on the cards but MCS looking more unlikely and I really want a MCS. Not too much to ask considering I haven't had a decent storm since I was a kid lol.
Anyway your thoughts on this would be much appreciated. Or anyone else's for that matter. Thanks in advance
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Best of luck to all you guys up north, but most importantly stay safe as this is looking like it could turn out to be quite a severe event.
Wind howling here and lights flickering, rain has eased a bit after bucketing for the past few hours.
Not expecting any snow here till the front stalls and falls back south but I'm still very excited by the evolution of this rare event. Great posts on here tonight too, thanks for keeping us all informed.
Anyway stay safe and ENJOY!!!!
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Sunday/Monday not looking too good now at all, especially for me anyway. Like every other slider it showed great potential but ultimately a disappointing let down. No sign of significant cold playing part in our weather now for the foreseeable. All in all a great winter for model watching and dreaming, only getting the odd flirt with cold.
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An Atlantic Streamer? Who'd have thought
Know what you mean Watcher, certainly beats the hell out of a slack easterly in terms of precip. Was nothing worse than watching the streamers of 2010 dissipate about 10/20 miles east of my location.
Correction...My worst weather watch day was the super convecto day back in the summer, forget the date but you all know the one. Oldcastle certainly had the storm shield up that day!!!! Looking at the 24hr lightning radar I was slap bang in the centre between the two thick bands of X's (strikes). My girlfriend of the time was very sick that day and I had to stick around to look after her so didn't get to chase.
Relationship didn't last long after that lol.
Relationship didn't last long after that lol.
Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
Extremely frustrating how cold seems endlessly pushed back beyond the day ten envelope and never seems to get within the reliable. Only hope is that the signal is there and IF the forcings do finally take hold then we could see things counting down.
Granted the roller coaster is all too familiar and reminiscent of a typical winter but it’s worth reminding ourselves that there’s nothing typical about the current atmospheric state. It may or may not work in our favour but it’s certainly enough to maintain interest and watch with fascination as everything unfolds.
Personally, I’ll be maintaining optimism so long as the likes of G.P, Catacol and B.B 1962/3 are blowing the cold trumpet. Last year seemed dead in the water until out of nowhere the boom charts started appearing, then as we were all expecting the watering down of cold potential it instead came forward with upgrade after upgrade. Phenomenal stuff!!!
Micheal