[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

15 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Gee wizz 'up and down in here yesterday going by the posters , are we on a cusp of a Cold spell or not . Seems like many see the colours of a computer and go by what it shows , Me 'I sit back and laugh at all the banter in here .Cold spell is coming and it will prevail 2 days before Crimbo Eve

Looks like 22 Dec onwards could well get interesting. Best chances for anything prolonged seem after New Year. That seems to be the general idea 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Good to see the block being more influential as expected.  Going to feel pretty cold next week thus we see the cold pattern now start to crank itself up.  NH pattern has been primed for a while.....maybe it will now share itself with us ver the coming weeks.  I do think though folks, don’t get hung up on it holding and producing a big easterly as Atlantic.  It’ll never be far away though so don’t be concerned either for any mild zoneality.  I’m very interested in deep FI.....look for LP to plunge south towards/at  Xmas to bring bitter cold for around the big day....GFS sniffing at this with several runs now.  The blocking in the hemisphere won’t allow the west to east passage so a southward plunge anticipated.....could be a trigger low.  Just some musings of my way forward.  

 

BFTP

You're right, we'd be looking at 5 day of Atlantic max before mid Atlantic blocking primes itself for the big day. Certainly a lot of tasty synoptics, even if this easterly doesn't deliver. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Absolutely, out to 144 now and a far better Chart. The lows become flabbier and weaker, the high remains stronger. Not a million miles away from being a cracking chart. Entering the realms of FI now, so I’ve seen enough now!

And the Atlantic never truly wins even at T156. Here i was about to right off the scandi high.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

GFS 00z out to 120, certainly a lot less progressive than the 18z at 126 was. Doubt it will make too much difference as the Atlantic looks poised to plow in through. Will watch up to 144 then go back asleep!

I'll say though, much better at 132, almost primed for an undercut. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

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[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 minute ago, draztik said:

yep - was going to ask the same thing... ecm doesnt look much better. I suspect folk are sometimes looking at different charts.

I'm also wondering if it's folks are focusing on near-term evolution as apposed to later on. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Check which run that is from (bottom left) 12z is a downgrade esp for the south ...

Well it's for midnight on Saturday the 15th. Chances are the south would have started warming up. 12 hours earlier and it's probably looking like bigger totals in the south, 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 minute ago, BlackburnChris said:

Never seen a transition like it... at +144 you have increasingly Cold air backing West . 24 hours later it's all moved 1000 Miles East .. Don't have much confidence in the later stages of ECM

We really won't know until that block sets up shop. Could be 48hrs out before the models really have it pinned. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Very nice! Just a few corrections west and most of the UK could be in for the fun

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Much of a muchness regardlng the cold at T120...

 

Wouldn't take much for those -4/-6 uppers to get over East Anglia and it could well be game on for a time

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

4 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

That low is not moving... really annoying! Just stays to the west of us ruining it!.. likely to draw up milder air from the south west until it clears... move God damn it

Unfortunately one of the caveats of the high being too weak to allow the low to slide underneath but still too strong to allow it through. Let's just be thankful its not stuck over the UK

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

More slight upgrades on 0Z. Better angle on the low and better geopotential heights over scandi. Will be a slow road but a turnaround could still happen.

Edit: Also more encouraging to see higher thicknesses over Greenland once those Lows slowly get a move on. Much more promising than a couple days back. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Why!

as long as that high stays there it's disrupting/weakening the atlantic lows/troughs deflecting them SE,i still see no zonal W>E movement,more of a polar NW'ly infuence.

It's all about positioning. Last thing anyone wants is stalling lows flooding the UK. If they have nowhere to go it's not good news. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Just now, bluearmy said:

I see the opposite!

You're right, I was looking at the Atlantic low but yes there's an eastern correction on the Scandi High. Not great. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Slight west correction at T102. Fingers crossed the GFS is on a bender to remember at the pub tonight!

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Quite chuffed about your post, makes my battleground posts in the last few days seem plausible.

I'm glad Walden could be in for some of the action if that chart comes off. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Eh? I’ve posted several tweets in the tweet thread suggesting fun and games in Jan. 

Essex weather also posted today. 

i'm still hoping there's a Christmas miracle last week of December. Wishful thinking though...

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

That low  No wonder the block struggles

I'm just thankful it's not heading straight for ireland/scotland. Would cause all sorts of damage. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Looking at tonight's extended Ecm 12z ensemble mean..to me that is pretty chilly and increasingly unsettled so potential for a wintry mix, especially at elevation..not mild sw'ly mush!

reminds me of 14/15 and 17/18. NW to SE aligned jet. Could be worse

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not sure how we got there  but we are under a hurricane at 216h

Someone get Michael Fish in here! lol 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Interesting viewing.. I'm hoping for that low to slide SE and the High to start retrogressing W. One can hope

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

9 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Question if I may. 

If GP is correct and we have a SSW in December then that would mean two SSW's in one year? 

Has this happened before and if it has I'm guessing twice is the maximum it could happen .. 

 

Look forward to any replys. 

I believe two SSWs happened in 2013, 2010 and 2009 I think. It's unusual but does happen 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

26 minutes ago, snowray said:

This will be a memorable victory for the ECM if it does stick to its guns and actually was to verify along those lines.

It was six years ago today since "That ECM" 

Let's hope we don't see a repeat of 6 years ago! 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Beautiful Ecm 12z operational if you love cold weather!

Quite spectacular uppers really. I'm landing at Heathrow on the morning of the 14th, Could make it quite interesting if there's a snowfest waiting for me  

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

35 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That’s getting close to SSW territory - as predicted by some 

I'm fairly sure that is SSW territory. I was told -8 or above to classify as SSW. shame its 384 hours out!