[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

 

Incredible radar over East Anglia!

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Short ens gives London 4 day's of sub -10 850's we then see an increase to around -5

 

Encouraging to see the GFS op being a potential mild outlier

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

1 minute ago, Zak94 said:

 what a beautiful chart from the ECM. I believe the cold will already be too deep and entrenched over Europe for the Atlantic to spoil the fun as quickly as some models suggest. 

This is exactly it and look at the bigger picture, We've had two exceptional SSWs (even resulting in the Japanese climate centre adjusting their graph axis) I think once the colds in, It will be here for a good while 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Am not liking this new trend at all tbh 

All 3 agree on bringing the low so close that the cold will surely mix out. Somewhere will get pasted but all of a sudden the synoptic are so so and following the isobars leads to Malaga instead of russia?

I still think it's too early. They won't really know until Weds/Thurs once the cold is entrenched. Even if there's rain, it would likely turn back to snow as the low tracked east.I think the models will really struggle with this for the days to come

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

As some have already pointed out, It wouldn't seem likely for this low to track much further north as this air will be frigid and likely keep it in the channel. Plus with surface cold I still agree unless you're in the far south west, you'd see a significant amount of snow. Either way Monday-Friday look incredible 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Notice that low disappears in this run on the GFS, like the UKMO. I think this would result in lower snow chances but a more direct colder feed. (-14 uppers in east anglia). Very interesting! 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

2 hours ago, metaltron said:

Loved the analogue post the other day; another analogue which could be used would be the cold spell from the end of February 1962 to the end of March. Here are some archive charts from that period:

 

Looks like a very similar evolution to the current pattern, in fact the Met Office noted how similar March 1962 and March 2013 when they investigated the reasons for the cold spell of the March 2013 occurring. Some more details about that spell can be found here (and yes there was plenty of snow!):

https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/2018/02/16/the-cold-spell-of-february-march-1962/

Strangely, there was no SSW that year, which I was a bit taken aback by; maybe some source/data issues? It certainly looks a similar evolution to the one we have now, which has been caused by an SSW (since that is how some people here managed to predict it!). 

Also, the days fell on the same dates in 1962. An omen pehaps? lol 

Amazing analysis from @Bring Back1962-63! 

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Really not seeing really any sign of that? Today was marginal that’s a whole different ballpark. 

Yeah, I more mean the nature of how it'll bump against the cold air. Yes it could be marginal also but I think there could be a few surprises in store. Also, steve mentioned the low would likely correct south (I'm not sure if that was tongue in cheek) but he knows his stuff. 

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Friday looks like we could see some transitional snow and then nothing really terribly mild in the next 7 days. lows crossing over taking w to e track and northerlies on the back ends. Going to make for interesting viewing!

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

15 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I think its because they can't see where the next lot is coming from. Although i personally think they are looking to far ahead. There may even be more available this week, in some spots..

Yeah they're trying to look for deep easterlies and prolonged cold which isn't there but plenty to get excited about in the short term. They flip so much that an easterly could appear 5 days out in the middle of Jan. Just doesn't seem worth getting upset over. 

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Here in NW essex, 5CM at least and still throwing it down. Looks like we got the sweet spot according to Wundermap. No rain to start, just snow since 7:55. Definitely can't see why there's doom and gloom on the MOD thread. Two pretty decent shots of snow (10th and today) and December isn't even over. 

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Here in NW essex, 5CM at least and still throwing it down. Looks like we got the sweet spot according to Wundermap. No rain to start, just snow since 7:55. Definitely can't see why there's doom and gloom on the MOD thread. Two pretty decent shots of snow (10th and today) and December isn't even over. 

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

True to GFS's unpredictable nature, after being a cold outlier for the 12Z, The 18Z appears a milder outlier in the 18Z ensembles. 

 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Xmas day slider will be completely gone on next run, not consistent and too far ahead, 

Yeah it won't be there but it's good to see some variation in the runs. It almost seemed like it wasn't going to let go of that mild outcome 

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Not the best medium range from the GFS. I think its safe to say the Scandi High ship has sailed. Looks like that Aleutian ridge is forcing the vortex over us over the next 2 weeks.

Yeah doesn't look too optimistic. Best chance (going by this run's output) would be high over the UK and Atlantic going north and some amplification. Don't fancy having uncle Bartlett over for Christmas this year... 

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

Seeing the transfer of vortex from Siberian side to Canadian side at 240H, Not really what we want to see but still very much in FI. Lots of great amplification in the short/medium range. 

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Joe b argues that those troughs are too tilted and will be more north/south with less ridging in the east. He argues that the models don't deal well with Arctic outbreaks headed n/s into the east side of the rockies (which are nw/se ) as they lift the air and warm it too much. I assume that more troughing into se USA will help our chances of Atlantic re-amplification  

I believe the air is only lifted and warmed when coming from the SW (I live right by the rockies, they call them 'Chinooks') When arctic outbursts arrive from the north, the air is not really moderated until it reaches Wyoming/Colorado) 

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the Ecm 12z and the GEFS 12z mean it seems like milder weather with high pressure taking control is the form horse next week.

Yeah I think high pressure becoming the form horse but probably sitting closer to the UK. Not overly mild at least for the south anyways, fog and frost with highs around 5/6 (2/3 under fog patches) 

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Back in the UK for xmas and new years on Friday, hoping there's a little bit of snow left! 

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

0Z GFS seems to have Atlantic powering through but not as strongly as the 18Z. Hints at high building to the N/NE but quickly snuffed out by the atlantic at 200H. Seems they're overegging these lows. Saw a 935mbar low just off greenland. seems unlikely. However if that 935mbar low helps some WAA west of the UK, that could be interesting. Going to make for an interesting week of model watching

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

Just now, West is Best said:

Folks, my one word of advice from someone who once had their fingers frostbitten ... nothing is nailed on or certain 7 days out. A week ago someone nameless on here said that we were definitely in for a mild week. The models are not only at variance amongst themselves but there's huge ensemble scatter e.g. look at the variety of perturbations on the GFS12z:

 

We've all done it: been convinced of a pattern, be that cold or hot but unless I see an absolutely rock solid blocking high e.g. the Bartlett slug or a Euro high or, for us cold fans, a rock solid Greenland high or Scandi high then I would urge than anything can happen beyond T144 and nothing is nailed on. So, for those who love snow and cold why not just enjoy the present?  

Yeah GP, Tamara and others touched on this when they mentioned about moving into a new MJO phase. The models will continue to make a dogs dinner of it until at least mid next week. 

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Ventusky (ICON Model) shows +2 by 8AM, back to 0 by 9AM. Any rain will be short lived

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Just now, sgrech said:

Wind is getting up and raining moderately, looks like a wash out unless the low changes its track :-(

Might go back to bed,

I think it'll come back around 9/10AM. Supposed to turn back to snow later on 

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Looks like sleet in chelmsford. Doesn't look great for coastal areas 

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

If anyone is curious, here's wundermap with radar and you there's some webcams too! https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap