CanadaAl
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Posts posted by CanadaAl
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judging by the steep gradient of the temperate in this graph, could we be on to (dare i say it) A SSW event?
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Even still.. baffles me how quick people are to jump on whether there will be a slack flow, a NE,E or SE. Either way, it's a week away and the outcome is still quite uncertain beyond T+96
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Areas circled in red to see heaviest PPN, obviously snow risk covers a wider area
And i'm in the middle, BOOOM!
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keeping my eye on raintoday to see what's occuring, looks like coming in from northwest, some heavy ppn over derby/leicester area. Could be heading our way. temp -1 here at the mo, would assume it to fall as snow/sleet
fingers crossed -
Well good news is we're back to the scandi high scenario, let's hope those other outcomes were just blips
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oh dear looks like raintoday has crashed under the pressure :S
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OK it's not -7 here, but -3c for Norwich is bloody well cold enough too!
Yeah I wouldn't be suprised if we at least saw a dusting before the snow turns to rain here in the East. clear, -1 here at the moment and falling.
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So do people think we might be in for a chance of some temporary snow tonight in our area? Even if it's only half an hour before it turns to rain i would be happy
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Looking fairly similar to my untrained eye atm, if anything that low is a bit further east earlier, not 100% sure of the ramifications of that though, I'm almost certain that it's not a good thing though and we would rather it strengthened and went North.
It's that secondary low we're looking for, around T+100 so a little bit more to wait
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I mean, yes there is a breakthrough of that south greenland low (GFS 18z) after T+144 but I'm guessing that is too far off so people are not worrying. Would i be correct?
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Just a word to anyone worried about the rise in ensembles out in FI.
Don't be. The increased amount of scatter within the ensemble suite in FI is bringing the mean up, remember that these ensembles are run at a lower resolution than the op so once you get past T144 they don't really have a clue and start to mute any blocking signal. The ensembles were constantly trying to rise in FI back in 2010 only to turn colder within the T144 time frame.
T144 down to T0 is where you want to pay attention, it's here we'll see the upgrades. Anything beyond that is pure conjecture
Thanks a lot for this post, i was starting to get concerned with the lack of blocking after next weekend with the GFS,CFS and ECMWF but UKMO is staying strong with that block! So beyond T+1440, not worth reading into too much i should think?
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I've noticed that the GFS has been starting to place the ridge over western greenland instead of over northern scandinavia. with the ridge further away, Does this bode well for us here in the UK? plus the GFS signals a breakdown around the 7th.
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ECMWF, UKMO, CFS, GFS... It's all starting to come together folks!
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I know I shouldnt, but im getting very excited at the trends on the models backing a greenland block around 28nov-1 dec. It's reminding me of 2009 when we had mild, wet and windy through november then BAM! middle of december cold spell with snow. I know i'm getting a bit carried away but hey ho
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Sorry but dont agree with you on this one. We are looking at the 2meter temp anomolies on this chart and the warm sector IMO would not be the center of the high but the back (western) edge.
See my example below from the latest GFS
Still looking reasonably cold though, giving us a south easterly feed. could do with that high a bit further north and more circular giving us a colder sourced easterly. Exciting Stuff!
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Not sure if i'm looking at the right strat page but NOAA CPC's strat temp graph has shown a huge jump in strat temp from below normal to normal over the last day or so, Hasn't appeared in the Japanese one yet though. Will put my ramp away..
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Hey guys, I'm new to this Strat thread and I was just wondering if someone would be able to explain what MB is in terms of the strat, is it millibars like pressure? Also, which start catergory should i be looking at on this page: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/?
Thanks a lot for the help
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Am I right in thinking everything is in place for a -NAO/AO and blocked cold winter EXCEPT the strat temperatures?
And could someone tell me, what causes the Strat to suddenly warm?
Yeah that does seem the case, that's why i don't think we can jump the gun over the strat temps. I was told the strat doesn't influence the CFS, so i'm wondering what it's picking up on giving us constant mild runs... Airing on the side of caution i guess.. I believe strat warming is caused by sudden wind reversal occuring at the pole. thus having a domino effect on the strat (I could be completely wrong
haha) Watching gav's vids, i do still think it's too early. could go either way.. the met are sticking to their end of nov cold forecast -
now i'm not suggesting there will be an SSW, however, correct me if i'm wrong, but isn't an SSW- just that?- a sudden and unexpected stratospheric warming?
apparently, SSW's are associated with an easterly QBO phase, which i believe we are in. (again, correct me if i'm wrong)
"On average, sudden stratospheric warmings occur in every second winter, and they are very unevenly distributed over the observation period. Only a single stratospheric warming occurred between the winters of 1988/1989 and 1997/1998, while nine have been registered since the beginning of this millennium. So far there has been no explanation. With their new research, the meteorologists at Freie Universität have shown that the intermittent sudden stratospheric warmings are a consequence of the interaction between the North Atlantic, the troposphere, and the stratosphere. They found that an increased number of sudden stratospheric warmings occur when the heat flux from the North Atlantic into the atmosphere is increased."
my point being, if they are unpredictable, how do we know it won't happen?
http://www.scienceda...10121081051.htm
just to add a bit more-
" They observed that there is an increased number of stratospheric warmings, when the heat flow from the North Atlantic into the atmosphere is increased"
i believe SSTs are high in the north atlantic, therefore with an easterly QBO, are conditions not favourable for an SSW?
I agree with this completely, I do also think (yes the strat is cooling to record low levels apparently) but we should consider other factors in our favour. Plus the strat is very complex and for we all we know the cooling could stop abruptly. I still think it's all to play for. Even the met who haven't had a great track record but are the most widely known forecast in the uk, are going for a cold end to november. So who knows really
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Why is everyone like "oh well the strat's done for, might as well wait till next year" when its november 7th! Come on guys, the strat isn't the ultimate deciding factor to our weather, yes it helps if a warming event takes place but we still have other factors in our favour
Rant over
Edit: Just went on the Strat thread and saw GP is suggesting the long range ECM might herald a change in strat conditions early Dec
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Loving the new weather porn out from the CFS, blocking from 24th right until early december. Not that far off either.
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Apologies for going off topic but was 'superstorm' sandy caused by the distorted jet pattern? I.e the system being forced up the east coast as opposed to tracking north east.
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woke up to a covering of snow this morning here in Cambridge. Sadly missed the shower that passed around 5/6 this morning. Some people put pics up, looked pretty good for this area in October!
fingers crossed
Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
To think, James Madden will certainly be filling his boots with these charts! haha