East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posts posted by East_England_Stormchaser91
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My word this is nuts!!!
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22 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:
I love your optimism!
Personally I think it's a case of renting a yacht and heading out into the N Sea...
Keep the faith bud. Some cells firing off over Peterborough now.
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Quite hopeful for Norfolk and the rest of EA getting something later on. Dorset to the Wash and SE of that probably still in the game for some proper stuff.
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France is lighting up like a Christmas tree. Jeez.
SE and EA should watch out.-
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Wow not looking bad! Many on the S Coast are in for a treat. Having a warmer channel at 18-19c must be helping.
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1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:
Can confirm Paul is doing good; I went chasing with him in Arizona last month! From spending time with him I think he's just given up with storms in his area, so that'll probably explain why he's not posted in a while. We saw some crackers over the pond though of course!
While I'm on the subject, I made a thread about that trip, including photos and a blog I wrote, over in the Storm Chase USA forum on here, if you or anyone else is interested! Such a great holiday
It’s definitely on my list that’s for sure. Would love to go chasing in the states one year soon. The storms and supercells there just look out of this world every season.
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Eagle Eye with what I think will be an accurate forecast yet again. Him and Nick F on here are excellent. Really missing Dan Holleys forecasts. Also Paul Sherman had excellent input. Does anyone know if he’s ok? Haven’t seen him on here for ages.
Sunday is still a very mixed picture. Looks like a more evening, early part of the night event now, rather than a 1-4AM job. Quite a few runs showing something quite significant heading through NE France maybe Kent on early Monday morning. Still not nailed down whatsoever as to what we will actually see. The instability is certainly still showing however, which is the main thing.-
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Hoping we see another Sunday like I did the last one. This was the Lincs storm viewed from Hunstanton! One of the most prolific, continental type ones I’ve seen yet in the UK.
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Getting interesting now I must say.
Big chance of some lively french imports. Looks to be an abundance of fat CAPE from the Pyrenees all the way to the Midlands. One or two decent MCS’ being churned out. Maybe even a rare MCC shouldn’t be ruled out on Sunday evening/night.
As ever, we should not get too hung up on the broad detail. Friday evening will be when we can really start to nail down some decent predictions.-
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40 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
Always amazes me how storms manage to cross hundreds of miles tepid North Sea however when they dip their toes in the channel of the north French coast it’s almost instant death!
Different dynamics I would say. Afternoon surface based French stuff never does too well once it hits the channel. If there’s no mid level instability, the storm just simply loses all source of fuel. Yesterday there was plenty of ML CAPE as well as surface based CAPE to sustain them. Although they lost their intensity a tad once out in the North Sea.
Couldn’t believe how much lightning that mothership was pinging out. Lincolnshire yesterday was rivalling some of the severe storm outbreaks that France, Germany and BeNeLux see.
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What a phenomenal day it was yesterday. That Cambs/Lincs storm was easily the best one seen for quite sometime. Knocking on 80mph winds at its peak, it could’ve been considered a borderline derecho/bow echo. Wish I got out and headed down the A17 earlier, but opted for Hunstanton to try and catch it, hoping for a little bit of right movement. I experienced the sudden wind/gust front that it created. Very suddenly sand and other bits of debris were being launched into the air. Almost like a gustnado.
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Just incredible.
Another monster heading this way again too. What a day.
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2 minutes ago, Candice said:
Definitely needs a bit more right turn. Might be worth going up to Hunny to see it over the Wash in about 45 minutes
I may have to have a trip up to see it off! Going very dark towards Wisbech way now.
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Look at the head on that! This beast could be right turning for me.
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I think parts of the W Mids, Central Wales and parts of NW England could be in for some decent storms tomorrow. Some real juice out that way in the form of 2000j/Kg in parts. Perhaps some decent hail involved if they do form in the evening.
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4 hours ago, cheese said:
Shame that we're still dealing with North Sea murk in September, the time of year I'd least expect it.
Yep, usually the sea temperatures are warm enough now to prevent masses of advection fog. Must be because of the unusually warm airmass for September flooding out over the North Sea.
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Currently 27c here. Just amazing how down the road on the coast, it’s laden with North Sea crud! Hunstanton literally on the boundary between a grey drab day and a scorcher! Sheringham not so lucky.
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44 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
I shall say it again
7 TROPICAL CYCLONES SIMULTANEOUSLY ACTIVE SPANNING ATLANTIC & PACIFIC
Typhoons Kirogi and Haikui are also approaching China's southern and...
FB.WATCHTyphoons Kirogi and Haikui are also approaching China's southern and eastern coasts. Due to the impact of the three typhoon systems, high winds...It will be interesting to see how winter pans out, in terms of potential northern blocking with a heavy transfer of warmth to the poles as a result of all the typhoon/hurricane activity.
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1 minute ago, MAF said:
Please expand what EWRC means.
Eye Wall Replacement Cycle
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33 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
Yes fair point about sea temps, but I was watching CNN earlier and their forecaster reckoned a Cat 3 was possible at landfall. They obviously know about sea temps too and are factoring it into their predictions. Still a notable event but not extra ordinary for this time of year
Overnight tonight is when this could really get nasty. Hurricanes tend to undergo rapid intensification more at night due to better ventilation and colder cloud tops.
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16 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
Not much news on this today, assuming it's not deepening as much as some had thought. It looks to me like this will be a Cat 3 at worst hitting an area with a relatively low population. So good news in that the worst case scenario less likely now.
Ian and Michael didn’t rapidly strengthen until right before landfall, so I’m not counting out anything yet. The sea temps are as hot as they’ve ever been just to note.
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Was watching Andy hall (American meteorologist) earlier and his take on it. He noted that the moisture associated with Idalia will be getting steered in the same direction ahead of the system, which was a key similarity to what made Michael become a monster, continuously tapping into steamy gulf Floridian air.
On a few of the runs, it even shows Idalia doing an Ivan and potentially looping back round for a second punch into Eastern Florida next week. This has been a very unusual year for displaced weather patterns.
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Practically a hurricane now, 70mph sustained winds. Wouldn’t be surprised to see this start to bomb down during tonight.
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Even more impressive that this convection and hot towers are developing like this during the day. I suspect we will be waking up to a confirmed Cat 1 tomorrow morning.
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Poor old Mrs was trying to desperately get to sleep! Then here’s this nutter (me) saying “oh my word” at the anvil crawlers streaming across overhead. Some real loud ground shakers occurred as the storm was departing North. Probably the loudest thunder of the year so far, and by far the most intense night storm of the last 3 years.