bringmesunshine

Seems that (to some) anyone seeing a spell of fine weather in FI is 'hopecasting', while the showery breakdown at the end of next week is a nailed on cert.

The problem with poorly written and researched stuff like the Sun article is that it has a dangerous habit of shaping public perception. In summer, retailers, events organisers and the tourist industry depend on accurate weather forecasting for their livelihood. If people think we are going to have a poor summer at this stage the it can affect what they spend their money on. Now, there may be floods at Glastonbury this year and Wimbledon may be played in a heatwave, but at the moment there is absolutely no serious evidence that either will happen. The most sensible posters on this forum know damn well that anything beyond 2 weeks ahead is speculation. (they don't call it FI for nothing). Yes, it's often well informed and intelligent speculation, but that's all it is. Stating categorically what the weather will do in two months time is irresponsible and does weather forecasting a disservice. Ignore.

While it's probably tue that 60's summers weren't that bad it's also the case that there were almost no really long periods of hot sunny weather from 1959 until 1975. For awfulness 1968 is probably as close as we get to 2012 and although 1969 is probably the best it was really only on a par with 2010. What seems to have happened in the 60's is that people got used to summers being unexceptional (a bit like now in many ways) and the great post war years like 1947, 1949 and 1959 were just something you told your children about. And that's why 1975 and '76 were such a shock and are so fondly remembered by those of us who grew up in the early 70's - we literally had never seen anything like it before!

There is much 'here we go again' style pessimism on the boards this week ,not really surprising given the current models and our experiences of the last few summers. But I was looking at an old diary from 2003 the other day and the entry for May 20th read: 'weather awful again today...this has to be one of the worst Mays I can remember...hope it's not a sign for the rest of the summer'. It wasn't. Things can and do change and there are signs that we could be in for a better end of the month. Philip Eden, whose monthly forecasts are as accurate as anyones, has suggested an unsettled mid month followed by a decent last third. If we're still in this pattern in three weeks time then we'll think again, but for now keep positive and enjoy the rain. You know it's good for us.

Don't think I can ever remember a potential change in the weather being given such prominence by the BBC news before and am a bit puzzled by it. Headlines like 'UK set for dry, warm weather', whatever the caveats in the report, will suggest to people we are in for a prolonged, country wide heatwave. Now, while it seems certain now that things will improve in the next week, people much more knowledgeable than myself on here are suggesting it will be no means that clear cut. I'm sure the met office themselves would prefer more caution, so is there pressure from other sources or are they just trying to cheer us up? (sorry, sorry, cheer those of us up who like dry, warm weather).

Another interesting vid Gavin. According to Philip Eden's weather index in Wisden, 1954 was the worst summer in England and Wales since 1900, being the only one with an index of less than 400. Looked like this year might be going that way except it has been slightly warmer - hopefully the change people are talking about ( and which yourself and a few others forecast a while ago) will save it.

Dear British Summer Okay that's it, you had your chance and you blew it. Every year since 2006 you've been promising around March/April you'd be better but come the end of july your up to your old tricks. Well I've had enough - I'm taking the kids and we're off to the travel agent. Don't try to stop us and don't try to follow us. We're better off without each other. Even if you say you'll be good until the end of August, I don't believe a word you say anymore. One day we might be friends again (but not until the 500mb charts show tentative signs of a pattern change in the medium time frame). Thanks for the good times - '76, '83, '95...say hi to the olympics for me

Happy birthday anyway SE. Don't let it beat you - it's only weather.

thanks john, Mrs bms will be waiting with baited breath. My slightly serious point is that there is a lot of really interesting, analytical comment on these posts but also a small amount of mass model posting with little comment or context. Your caution and honesty is refreshing and I've noticed you've hit the nail on the head a couple of times this summer in terms of pattern changes. Whatever happens in the next few weeks you've all kept me interested in this most dismal of summers so far. Keep going everyone, boy will we enjoy it when and if the sun shines.

Knocker, while too young to remember it personally would it be fair to suggest that in terms of the extended summer 1959 matches '76 as it wasn't as intensely hot but it lasted well into the autumn. My father and others used to talk about 1949 and 59 as being the great pre '76 summers. They also used to say it rained all the time in the 50's so can we assume that the only truly outstanding summer between 1949 and '75 was 1959. Which puts our current run of 'dreadful' summers into some kind of historical context.

As a new member am baffled but fascinated by the volume and variety of models out there and not really sure what it all means. But I am encouraged by the general concensus this morning which seems to point to a 'less depressing' outlook for us summer lovers over the next couple of weeks. Wife keeps asking when the weather will change and I reply 'only when John Holmes suggests tentatively that a pattern change might happen in the 7-10 day timeframe'. She says 'tell John to get a move on then!' So no pressure on, eh John?

Fantastic vid Gavin bringing back lots of good memories. Really enjoyed the '75 one as well, as you say, the 'forgotten' great summer. Keep them coming!

Definitely agree there is something in this - as a warm weather fan I have felt an almost physical depression over the last week in particular. Both children's sports days cancelled, wife working on cultural olympiad outdoor events almost driven mad with frustration, school run carried out in constant drizzle. Even when it's not raining it's almost raining. Respectfully to those who don't like hot and sunny, surely you wouldn't begrudge us just the odd day? And to those hoping for big storms, not sure the people whose houses have been flooded recently would agree with your wish.

First ever posting on here but I've been fascinated to read some of the posts over the last few weeks. One of the most interesting things about our weather is the contrast between the scientific and the utterly subjective i.e the perception of 'good' or 'bad' summers can entirely depend on day to day individual experiences and the statistics often only tell half the story. For anyone interested in a more objective view of where this summer stands in history, take a look at Trevor Harley's weather records website. What it proves is that we have always had terrible summers - the great ones stand out because they are unusual. Also any cricket fans may know about the Wisden weather index compiled annually by Phillip Eden which also shows how summers were not necessarily better in the old days - it seems to suggest runs of bad summers e.g 1962-1974, 1977-1982 and 1985-1988 can happen and it now seems we could be in such a run. But at the same time great summers can come out of nowhere, such as 1975,1983, 1989. So yes this summer could end up being one of the worst but as an optimist I have to believe in a late May type pattern change suddenly appearing. A long shot at this stage but who knows and those who despair of ever seeing a good summer again would probably have felt the same on June 2 1975, when it was snowing!