Captain Shortwave
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Posts posted by Captain Shortwave
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Seriously are the press still writing this stuff. Well I know that these journalist will be left looking red faced, well in a world where everything was fair and unbiased that would be the case.
Unfortunately I see only one headline from the gutter press by the end of this week.... on the lines of "The Metoffice cocked up again, lets cut spending for this department as it's useless"
Which is completely and utterly unfair, they waited for as long as they could before tentatively moving towards the cold setup. The metoffice are absolutely not at fault here, but you can almost guarantee that the newspapers will go with this and the likes of Vantage weather and James Madden will somehow escape the fire.
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Well I called for an improvement before this run came out, and told some people it's going to snow next week. I always jinx things.
Maybe I should change my name to captain shortwave
Edit done
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How many shortwaves does it take to ruin a cold snap
I'm sure we will get another shot soon, not to say that this one is well and truly over.
I have to admit even I feel a bit flat after this model run
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The fact he said at the end of the broadcast "easterly winds bringing snow showers but that could change" is never a good sign!
I know what you mean, although we don't have mild SW drool compared to the rest of Europe it doesn't seem very exciting, cold and snow wise for the UK.
It depends on how you interpret it, he says that there will be snow in the east at first, what is there to say that more areas could be affected by snow. Maybe I am looking on the brighter side.
Maybe the 12Z charts will further some more light on things. Maybe the dreaded shortwave of this morning will simply vanish and then its all systems go. I can't see any zonal weather on the horizon though so in my opinion it's all about how much snow and how cold areas of the country will get with the risk of fronts attempting to advance from the south west.
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I think to those who are doubting the cold spell coming up, this should bring some positivity back, this was released on the bbc weather website an hour ago so I think they feel confident (relatively) about the incoming cold spell. Wintry showers for the East at first, so they might be thinking about feature forming on an Easterly flow or perhaps atlantic knocking on the door of the british isles later next week.
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stopped snowing now, just light rain but it was great to see. Hopefully good signs of things to come
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Heavy snow with proper big flakes now, starting to settle everywhere now
Unfortunately it probably won't last long but hey it's the third day in the last week where I have seen snow fall with more to come next week, even with the much slacker output appearing.
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Thanks for the update Ian, now I can start to get excited about this upcoming cold spell. No worries if it weakens/backs off. Had snow where i am a couple of days now and maybe some tomorrow morning. This winter already tops last years
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I think the fi in this should be taken with a massive pinch of salt. Up to about Monday/Tuesday things looks pretty set, but what the trigger low does after this is paramount to how our cold spell develops. This run is silly from there on as that low goes south, then east, then back west and finally north. That low is officially doing a tour of Europe.
Likewise the runs preceeding this should also exhibit the same treatment. But still an Easterly is on the card, just what weather/wind/temperatures are the things up for grabs tbh.
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Good runs again, actually something did catch my eye for tomorrow morning, looks like there is a chance of a short(ish) spell of heavy snow running down the north sea which looks to affect East Anglia and possibly the london area during the morning rush hour.
Also you know the met are having difficulty when the bbc don't update their five day forecasts (monday aka day 5 still has the estimates up), I see this as a good sign as well if this cold spell was supposed to be short lived and not that bad then i'm sure the met office would punt for it. There is obviously something very nasty which could happen in their minds so care must be used as to forecast snowmagedden would be unwise if the charts go tits up.
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I still feel cautious about this, I think there are a lot of great signs here, but lets see if these runs keep showing up over the next few days. If the ECM/GFS pick out the same runs tomorrow evening then I think we are in real good shape and of course if we get to saturday and it's still showing without shortwave dramas then I think should learn how to live like people in Eastern Europe do during the winter as that might be necessary.
Whilst the sounds of a winter as epic as the ones which occurred before I was born (I was born in 1990 and was too young to remember the February 1991 cold spell), I do feel a sense of fear about how this country will cope, I have a feeling that there would be absolute chaos in this country. I hope I am wrong on that front.
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Wow, just wow, if that run came off, I will safely say that I will be stuck here for a very long time. Maybe I could make myself some skis or attach tennis rackets to my shoes
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The charts continue to look excellent if you compare to what we usually have this time of year. Even a slack easterly will give a little snow here. Anyway this winter is already better than last year as it's just snowed heavily and there is some on the ground
Before anyone asks about February last year I was in Southampton where we got only one snowfall which could account to being the worst snowfall ever. Icy drizzle
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Just had a heavy snow shower here........finally as it's been pretty much rain/sleet all day. Best of all it has settled and we have a dusting
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I think this run can be binned, the whole thing, not just the destruction of the high is absurd, of course these events could happen but not with such extremes. This run is pretty much a young boy blowing up the the biggest balloon he can and then goes meh i'm bored and shoves a needle straight into the middle of it. Have to admit this model run did make me laugh.
In the reliable time frame I am currently more interested in the northerly incursions (if brief) which could give a nice dusting of snow here. Of course wind direction will determine whether I get heavy snow showers or glorious clear blue skies, though frankly I would be happy with either.
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Haha got to love that little high in Germany which directs warm air from the med over us and keeps the siberian express at bay.
GFS all I can say is, you're barred!!!
Back in reality, the next week looks really exciting, if you like cold or are the CEO of an electric/gas provider
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We will have to see, there was a little on the cars outside, but just checked, it's gone and it's raining. Strange night, it seems to change its mind every minute or so, snow, sleet, rain, cloudy, misty, clear all in about 5 minutes or so. Well if there is some lying snow when I get up you will be the first to know
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Right got to get this out, first snowfall of the winter in Great Yarmouth happening now
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I agree that we should be looking at this azores depression, if it remains isolated from the atlantic train it has a good chance of going underneath us which is what the latest run suggests, if it does get caught up though then well that's game over for that scenario and we remain in our pattern. One thing of interest is this quote from weatheronline (whether it is of any use whatsoever I'm not sure and more experienced posters would probably have better thoughts).
"We are watching developments at the end of next week very closely; might be a wintry snap across the UK and Ireland, although detail hard to pinpoint right now. I suspect it is mainly northern areas of the UK at risk of snow, but this could change."
Considering this time period is when this low is predicted to be in our vicinity suggest that this would be one area in fi we should be looking at for further developments.
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Hi, another newbie here, been reading the threads the past couple of weeks and of course the fact we are not buried in many feet of snow must deflate some people a bit. But things still looks good. Yes the Atlantic train seems to be gearing up, but with everything moving nw to se it would only take one of these to slide a little further south and then that will set off a chain reaction of increasing cold easterly or north east winds and high pressure building from the northerly quarter. There are a lot of good signs, we just need to wait for it to happen. Someone said a few posts back about that the onset will come at very short notice, that is probably a likely outcome in my opinion, we might get 24-48 hours warning but that's it.
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Today has not been too bad here by the sea, temperature in the mid twenties with a refreshing sea breeze. Oddly the wind has suddenly died out and changed direction which doesn't happen too often here. The temperature is soaring now, must be about 28c at least and climbing.
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Moving today, looks at forecast for Great Yarmouth (where I live and are moving to), 31 degrees according to the bbc.........Any other day but today *facepalm*
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I think the metoffice/bbc forecasts will come round to this thinking, saturday's temperature has been put up a few degrees now (28 in London), so I'm sure Sundays forecast will change soon enough. Anyway bring on today and hopefully some great storms
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It looked until the regional forecast that the area i live in was going to experience only a little rain, but that forecast has brightened my hope of some proper good thunderstorms. But can only help but think that living by the sea (Great Yarmouth) will probably scupper that chance, with the winds from the South East.
Model Output Discussion - 8th December Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Captain shortwave
It's the trend of where that low is positioned which is key. It has moved progressively south with each run, unfortunately we are still in a south west airstream with the airflow coming from further south hence why we have higher upper temperatures. The thing is it would not take too much for us to have south easterly winds which would be much colder.
The positivity is still there but it's still very tentative.