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Nimbus Nix
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ECM 216hrs actually shows a warm core subtropical cyclone off SW portugal which helps the Med ridge up through France:
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Having an early look at the 12z NAM, it seems to be much closer to the ECM off SW Greenland than the GFS 6z. The shortwave running through E Canada is possibly even better than the ECM, helping to slow the trough down as it enters the Atlantic:
Early days though, we'll see if the 12z GFS follows the trend.
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Two planes seem to be finding landing very difficult at Southampton right now:
Just a windy day so far here in Coventry.
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Good storm that one north of St Nazaire:
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I know it's probably moonshine, but after what looks like it will be a failed attempt of a plume on Friday, early next week has ridiculous CAPE values of up to 3000 probably 3500j/kg and a LI of -12 over the East Midlands!
Best explosive chart I've ever seen put out yet. If only...
And just like that, the explosive LI's and CAPEs are back out in FI...
Plan B:
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Well the 06z 1mb temperature profile wasn't looking too shabby this morning [1]:
That's a top temperature of 35.8C with a temperature gradient across the pole just 4C off a full 100C! Not bad even with the GFS' positive temperature bias. Still, we could do with this increasing and propagating down a bit more over the next few days rather than the flip-flopping about we've been seeing as of late.
Also I wondered if anyone could explain the significance of the AAM moving gradually into negative territory and going into Phase 1/2 over the next few weeks. It seems to be really quite significant when compared to the last 3 months which have had a consistently low amplitude GWO (from 00z GFS ENS) [2][3]:
And the last 3 months [4][5]:
Looking back I found a 2008/2009 thread with GP discussing the GWO moving into Phase 1/2/3 and going deeply negative: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/52083-gwo-and-global-angular-momentum/
Could be a promising sign if I'm reading it correctly.
[1] http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014121206&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384
[2,3,4,5] http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html
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Wow these just came out of nowhere...!
Just shows how ripe the atmosphere is for development at the moment
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Beautiful rainfall radar on that storm, and looks like there could be some serious straight line SW winds on that SE end:
Textbook bow/comma echo as well:
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Well although the cold front's passed through, it still felt very warm standing in the sun taking these pictures:
Pics 1 & 2 are of a few nice towers building to the west, lovely cloud base on the second one as well:
Pics 3 & 4 are of the thundery shower looking WNW towards Telford/Newport, of which I heard 2 or 3 faint rumbles of thunder:
Those two pics actually correlate nicely to the satellite pic below, I've marked where I'm standing as a red 'x'. You can see the clouds in the foreground to the south east of the cell quite well.
I've slotted the radar image in alongside as well as the sferics
(Pics taken next to Wolves' training ground in Wolverhampton)
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Some good flashes on this webcam as the storm exits the picture: http://www.padstow-harbour.co.uk/phc_webcam.html
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200 strikes/hour in south-west France now on meteociel:
And certainly a big boost in activity around cornwall now:
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Been dry in Wolverhampton all day. Actually, looking at that radar makes me think we're in the middle of winter and there's a band of snow inching it's way towards us but never quite getting here! Maybe if it happens now, it won't next winter...
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I'll go for 12.3C, don't think anyone's said that one yet.
Cooler mid month before we have a warm thundery spell at the end. -
Great squall line here in Newbridge, Wolverhampton. This is how the radar looked at 2:15 with some pretty bright purples and whites right overhead. Beautiful shelf cloud racing south with hail 10mm in diameter, and some very big lightning flashes and cracks of thunder.
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Some pretty dense fog on the NAE this evening for 9am tomorrow morning:
Would be nice to get a bit of freezing fog this winter as well, surely it isn't too much to ask for...?
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The 06z GFS run is very different to the Euro runs as early as t60 so hard to say
what fantasy trip its taking us on.
I noticed that on the 0z as well, the differences at 72 hours out is incredible.
Here is the 0z GFS at 72hrs:
And the 0z ECM at 72hrs:
The ECM has a detached 990mb low our side of that mid-atlantic ridge, while the GFS has it still merged with the parent low the other side of the ridge. Also of note is the little feature near Shetland on the ECM which is more pronounced than on the GFS.
Incidentally the 6z GFS moves everything eastwards a little, with a 5mb difference from the 0z over Greenland and the block north of Scandinavia moving towards Svalbard. Just goes to show how volatile the situation is at the moment in the models.
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Thought this was interesting as it's the 60th anniversary of BBC weather: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25669649
Gives a little insight into the BBC's approach to the models at the end of the video and then right at the very end, a slight slip of the tongue by Darren Bett? or just nothing at all... I'll let you decide
Either way, the warming up in the stratosphere showing up nicely on the GFS 12Z.
Some interesting wave 1 activity popping up on the models over the coming fortnight.
Let's just hope this one isn't a red herring too...
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Just noticed on the 06z GFS: Is that -111111111112°C at 850hpa near Moscow?
I'll have some of that if it comes our way...
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4.7c please
Trust me to leave it to the last 40mins of the year...
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Been rather quiet in here over the last few weeks, and no wonder.
Here's the current Eurasian Snowcover - not changing very much recently and certainly not making any meaningful advances westwards:
Overall Arctic sea ice extent has plateaued somewhat and now stands at the grand total of 11,886,041 km2 (December 22, 2013):
And to make things even worse (well, I guess it's debatable), the sea ice to the north-west of Iceland has faded back to the coast of Greenland a little:
Although a graphic from the Icelandic Met's own website shows the ice being still only 43 nautical miles (≈ 50 miles) from the coast (on 17th December):
It really seems like the ice is struggling to bridge over into Iceland, then again it hasn't made it across in a fair few years.
On the upside, there could be some significant falls of snow over the alps later this week with a small trough digging in to Western Europe:
So all in all it's not been a great few weeks ice/snow wise, which isn't surprising given the current synoptic situation. Maybe the forecasted strat-warm will give the cold/snow a boost into the New Year...
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Piers Corbyn's at it again... http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01lslr7 @42:06
He makes quite a bold prediction @51:51 - "There's a very good chance of a considerable amount of snow in Scotland and the North on New Year's Eve"
Well, we shall see... but as ever with his forecasts it does seem to leave quite a bit of room for ducking and weaving: For instance, even though I'm sure most of us wouldn't find a couple of inches on top of Ben Nevis considerable; I know one person that might.
Still, with such a firm prediction it gives us a good chance to see how far wide of the mark he is.
Current GFS way out in FI (Not that it makes a difference of course):
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Here's the latest sea ice graphic from the Icelandic Met Office:
Doesn't look too far away at first sight, but then again, judging by the last couple of decades it could be a while before the slightest hint of any contact.
Anyone able to decipher Icelandic??
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Well it looks like the QBO has finally had enough of those westerlies - easterlies starting to creep down again...
It's gonna be a long, slippery slide to the bottom though
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
To properly understand the current model discrepancies around the UK in terms of northward/southward shifts etc, many would be better off concentrating on the behaviour of the block around Svalbard and Northern Russia. Here is this morning's ECM at 96H, and corresponding 12z GFS at 84H showing the starting position with a circa. 1050mb High around Svalbard (Focus on heights (colours) only!):
From here, the UKMO starts to split the ridge 12 hours later, slowing down the progression of cold air:
The 0z ECM is similar to the UKMO 12 hours later, weakening the ridge over Svalbard and inflating the Icelandic ridge:
Whereas the 12z GFS keeps a nice elongated ridge connected fully across Svalbard, pushing the colder air further west:
This is what you need to look out for on tonight's ECM, forget the Europe view, switch to NH. Can we keep heights high at Svalbard, or does the ridge get broken down as the ECM did so this morning: