jules216

Meanwhile at my home another advection of hot air incomming. Already had +26°C Yesterday in Slovakia.

Its Been a while since Scandinavian high vanished in June 2023. Who would have thought that the pattern would be so persistant after then.

daz_4 yes makes you wonder what will happen if we get "Egypt" advection in July.

daz_4 analog wise i still like 2016 most.this Has not changed since February forecast.

daz_4 synoptically close to 2016 but the trough is anchored too much west. Hence crazy warm advections and only brief periods of frost. This Easter looks remarkable,just look at the temperature forecast for Monday. This Sahara advection in the air already here today. Easter 2023 we had snow!

Weather-history i Can apply most pretty Well in general to Slovakia for March however. About end of first decade in March came cold spell. The combined anomally vs what clusters start seing in the begining of March. I am quite satisfied with this as starting point.

My spring analogs. I Can already detect height rises to NE to be catalyst of ,2 week cold snap in central Europe. Apríl mild and May black sea low and changeable. Low drought risk in Europe. There you go

Catacol Well SSW in a sense is these days also a meaning of a substantial event of polar stratospheric warming. The definition of 5 days in a row of easterlies ať 10hPa and split like 2012,2018 of course didnt happen. But what happened was a reflective event similar to January 2007 and based on that I did warn of similar outcome in February. Do you think that I didnt read A.Butler papers and posts? I do follow all in detail. Now I ask you, did you follow 17.1.1987 displacement/reflective event that brought/induced the end of very favorable pattern to date only to bring 6 weeks of no winter fór it to return in March. The best analog matches for second half of winter are 1998,2007 and 1987 in general winter European circullation. You Can disagree but if you disagree and say I am wrong then pull out this February so far vs the blend of those years. Or you want to say that I am just guessing again and just being in luck with the years? What was your forecast anyway? How did your thoughts pan out in detail?

If anyone is interested the UK lowest temperature this winter is from start of December here in Foregin - North West of Carrbridge -17.5°C, this is unoficial of course from Scottish Frost hunters. i was Happy to assist in pin point this location in advance of station instalation.

cheeky_monkey yes and I am shaking my head when I read about positive background signals. Because they were never really there,throw in the super strong +IOD in the mix and it looks even worse. Also re. the SSW I would reccomend in future to print this out and stick on the wall for everybody. The regimes around SSW and what usually followed. You Can follow the lag after this winter SSW which onset correlated with established -NAO and you Can see that with further lag there is more and more yellow/Orange in Europe. Textbook stuff really.

North-Easterly Blast Well thats about it for Slovakia too, only february 1983 was okay. With All other strong Ninos we had about 7-10 days spell of Snow and cold sometimes 2. That is what happened this winter too. What did verify very well that in those strong Ninos there was always a snap of Snow in november and exactly this has happened this winter too. So basically background signals verified very well,sadly.

mulzy No its not. Who told you that background signals were good? This is most bizzare presumption. Just look at best matching Februaries - 1998 and 2007 both were strong east based EL Ninos. From where did this favorable background falacy originate? When was last good winter under strong,nearly super Nino? I see these 2015/16, 2006/07, 1997/98, 1982/83, 1972/73 etc. Tell me how are these favorable background signals if in All those Európe suffered mild eternity in winter.

Derecho yes I mentioned 1998 as good analóg too. I have forward referenced it to possibly interesting analóg blend fór next winter 1998/99 and 2007/08 or 2016/17 here in central Europe. The provisional idea is for very little drought worry spring/summer then dry pattern setting Up in autumn. And later the cold building from the east/western Russia next winter. This is general idea going forward this year and Beyond. May looks particullary wet here in central Europe.

Met4Cast look at this from 15.1 referencing 2006/07 etc. It was ať tíme all were very bullish about February. I knew way before then how will it Evolve, how is IT a coincidence? This is not first time believe me, I occasionaly post when I see it being suitable in models over the past 1-2 years. Dont Remember when was I really wrong. i Can look All Up but dont know its necessary to bother.

Met4Cast you have just said what I echoed too,broascale changes in polar field, SSW etc. How come I didnt need to be expert in GSDM field yet I managed to see in advance a SSW that would re-shuffle the good synoptics. I even mentioned it in models thread way in advance. Very similar f.ucked up SSW happened in January 2007,2015 etc. How come All the tools/people/mets/UKMo hot it wrong big time even though they scrutinize GSDM or incorporate it in their algoritm? Magic