weathersupremacy

@108 the SE is covered in snow.

@t96 stunning snowfall adding to the previous days!

Not just Monday, appears there could be substantial amounts soon after. Massive travel disruption if this all comes off! Careful for what we wish for guys

The models show that Ian Brown's blowtorch is smashed! Models show a big band of PPN to affect large portion of the country between 13:00-19-00 on Monday.

13:00 -19:00 - lots of snow for many areas in England if the latest couple of frames verify. Travel disruption for rush hour a concern for many.

Big snowfall Monday 13:00 @ T72.

It;s updated again. Saying 'snow' for Liverpool right now?

Yes, maybe even sooner depending on how the 00z and 12z goes on Friday. I do think the NW will get a good pasting this coming week.

Looking on METO weather forecast for this morning and it's saying snow for Stoke, Congleton and Leek? With sleet for Middlewich area.

http://www.dh.gov.uk...lert-10jan2013/ Level 2 cold alart issues by METO - must be siding with ECM/UKMO output then and not favoring the GFS mess.

@fergieweather Yet another amusing run from the US-GFS model churning out currently. Still eager to restrict cold only till early next week. Reliable? Hmmm

METO site showing light snow for Buxton and Edale on Friday night. I wonder if we will see further upgrades into the region.

What ever happens this winter - cold, mild, snow, rain or anything else I think we will all be that bit wiser and smarter in the end and ready for this November and December's trip to model asylum. I'm still thinking 12Z for Monday and Tuesday will be the highly interesting ones. We shall see...

Which model, other than Glosea4?, will be the first to factor in the SSW? Will it be tomorrow's 12Z? Or will it be as soon as the 0Z?

I seem to remember a model or two dropped the idea of the snow event from a couple of years ago just days before the event, and we all know what happened shorly afterwards. Models will, for whatever reason, go a bit mental sometimes before a big event.

Ensembles will be of interest.

Another afternoon with the 12Z, and another afternoon of immense change. What will it show in tomorrow's 12Z? Something different...again! So much variation in the output that we can't take any for gospel, so no point fretting about poor output

That's the problem! There is more information that exists in the world than the stuff you and I see, and the experts appear quite confident of something cold happening this month! We should no more by around Monday I would imagine. NEver ake a chart for gospel - whether it shows stuff you want or do not want. There's more going on in the weather than the charts that we have access to are able to show!

Not to sure why you are taking this run, and other runs as gospel? I think it's just the GloSea4 setup that links it (strat data) all together, so to speak. Of course, we only have limited METO data and the guy who has more access is Mr Ferguson and his attitude so far seems to be optimistic for cold. Even then, the event has yet to actually happen but is forecast to (with high confidence of reliability). I don't think the GFS has been setup that way, so until the SSW happens then the GFS is essentially blind for next week's output in my opinion. I think Monday's 12Z is when the dice start to roll and we can perhaps start to take more notice of models. Even if GFS showed cold and mass amounts of snow tonight then I would be as wary as I am with the latest 18Z output as there will be changes - back and forth. Ensembles are a mess and these NWPs generally have not got a clue yet. This whole SSW thing will be nice important step in weather predictions for amateurs and pros, I believe.

18Z about to roll out. Will it show something we've not seen yet? Will it show Ian B's zonal train back on track, or will it be derailed by a mega easterly of which Steve Murr will be unable to see as he his moving house...most likely away from any tracks that have a zonal train... ...Pluto.

Is the 12Z showing an upgrade in strat warming? Looks like it to my untrained eye, but could obviously be very wrong.

FI is much shorter than that at around the 108 mark perhaps. The big low that was on the 12Z was gone from the 18Z. Will be interesting if that returns for tomorrow's charts. Could it be that the 18Z is no longer the pub run for cold, but the pub run for mild and zonal? Charts will be all over the place for the next few days at least whilst they attempt to get to grips with the situation, and even then the charts may not be enough and will need more human input/views than normal. Fax charts are the ones that will interest me very much over the next few weeks. Yes, it will be mild for this week and after that, who knows? I'd rather have a surprise easterly than one that's forecast ten days away and for it to be dropped within 72 hours. See what tomorrow's wacky charts bring...

Gibby isn't referencing the near future (couple of days) he's referencing FI, where I and others expect many changes in the NWP. What shows tonight in FI will/may show something totally different in the next 12 hours.

Wasn't sure which thread to post this in - this one or the other one you make the exact same post your analysis in. Gibby, with all due respect, you often claim that you only interpret what the models are showing, but since there's variation so far in FI can you honestly say there's not a mild bias in your post? The FI pattern, I believe, will constantly change in output and I expect further changes and divergences around the new year (and perhaps over the next few days too) period to reflect the weather around 10/15th of January.

Still an abundance of aircraft and people not celebrating Christmas. Still, lots of people do not celebrate Christmas, like myself. There will be atheists and other people of various religions that do not celebrate Christmas and others who think it's a load of commercialised rubbish. Can you post a link from a good source that confirms lack of data? Or maybe you can e-mail METO, NOAA or some organisation and post it here. I would do it, but I can't be bothered.