doctormog

Just to clarify, my agenda comment was not directed at you, apart from the fact you had the courtesy to post those comparison links which was appreciated The ice at the Russia side usually breaks up to some extent in an average year, but I agree the Canada/Alaskan side shows much more extensive melting than the norm. I haven't actually stated this summer is "normal" in terms of Arctic ice simply a bit more normal than last year. Re. The significantly bigger levels, I'm talking statistically rather than climatically and the situation could indeed change in coming weeks, I just think that if it was going to exceed last year's melt i.e. continue the trend of ever increasing absolute minimum then the current levels, fractured or otherwise would be lower. As I say time will tell. The bottom line is that disintegration or not the following is the current picture and it may be craking but the rate of melt is not accelerating, this isn't my opinion by comments are observations based on all available data: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/..._timeseries.png Maybe the acceleration will start soon? However the real damage was done at the end of June/Jul - look at the rate of change. If the sme thing had happened this year we'd have been in exceptionally dire straits for the reasons you and GW mention in this thread. The fact is because it didn't there is a certain element of "protection" which wasn't the case last year. Just to put things in more concrete terms I now do not believe that last year's minimum will be exceeded this year (i.e. the absolute min extent will be higher)? What do you think?

Thanks for those images, as I suggested they show the significantly greater ice levels this year compared with last (albeit a good deal less than the long term average). GW My sister-in-law grew up in the high Arctic and I'm perfectly well aware of the situation in the area. Apologies if your comments weren't directed at me. I guess I'll just leave this thread alone as there are too many agendas and too many "wills" regarding possibilities to the future developments. As a scientist I find it frustrating, guestimates stated as fact just come across as arrogance I'm afraid and a few "mays" or "coulds" wouldn't go amiss. Time will tell, as will the evidence - right now it says there's more ice, fractured or otherwise than last year - if it melts it melts but until it does it hasn't and is still there. I can't see into the future but the temperature outlook for the high Arctic is nothing like it was last year's unusual synoptic induced heat.

Are you suggesting that this is anything but the norm for mid-summer? As far as I'm aware the ice pack fractures and cracks with the movement and polar-day melting each summer? Compare it with previous year's imagery and get back to me. The other year on year comparisons paint a favourable picture compared with last year. Can you show me (with links please) an overview of the current situation compared with the same date last year for the entire region that shows a "less favourable picture" (compared with last year). There's little point in saying the ice is breaking up if that in itself is not overly remarkable. Perhaps it is but I'm not so sure.

To be equally contrarian the ice extent is currently greater than last year and the evidence is apparent from several sources. Where the ice is not more extensive is in your neck of the woods (comparatively speaking - OK it's a big wood!) i.e. to the N/NNW of BC (by way of Yukon/NWT), namely the Beaufort Sea area. Here's the overall picture compared (like with like) for the same day last year: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/de...deetmp.6614.png For Alaska all the way round to N Russia the picture is a significantly more healthy one than at the same time last year. Yes that could all change with increased melting in coming weeks, but even if last year's unprecedented anamolous rate of melting were to be repeated the ice extent would exceed last year's minimum this year. It will take something extraordinary to reach a lower minimum extent compared with last year. It's possible given events last year but I wouldn't bet on it. Compare it with last year both in terms of extent and satellite imagery. Tell me what you find compared with this stage last July overall. I've checked the images on "Rapidfire" from July 2007.

A point you seem to miss (or if I'm being harsh) ignore (?) is that these images such as the NASA Rapidfire ones in isolation are of only so much use. Yes, they provide an excellent "real" look at the current situation and are invaluable for that reason but to make a valid comparison with previous years, last year in particular the corresponding e.g. July 10th 2007 must also be looked at. I've had a glance at these images and they still suggest a generally more healthy picture compared with last year. Have you got evidence that this is not the case?

Here you go, just to back up that statement: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/images/weatherd...08/pos_2008.gif

Sorry, totally off-topic but if you decide to go on one say hi to my sister-in-law's dad who amongst other things works for them http://www.quarkexpeditions.com/our-people...s/laurie-dexter

For further information on the Kilimanjaro situation and its use as a marker of climate change see below... http://www.geotimes.org/aug07/article.html...ilimanjaro.html Not sure of the relevance to a webcam in the Arctic, which is incidentally not currently melting at the dire rates predicted by some earlier in the year, although that could change in coming months). Surely we should all be please about every day that passes when the situation is more "icy" than last year's record breaker? The current data speaks for itself i.e. below the long term mean but not nearly as "bad" as last year. That's not a forecast or an opinion just an observation of the current situation. As ever the next few months will prove interesting. The current NSIDC picture suggests c. 0.5 to 1 million sq km more ice than at the same stage last year: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/..._timeseries.png Will the rate of loss remain constant, accelerate or possibly even slow in coming weeks? Levels, according to the above data, seem to have remained fairly consistently in the range of c. 0.5 m sq km below the long term average over recent months.

There is an indepth analysis of recent and forecast ice conditions available from the Canadian Sea Ice service or in fact "A collaboration of the Canadian Ice Service and the National/Naval Ice Center" http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/ARCTIC001..._0003788559.pdf This was released a week ago.

Those are great photos Paul.

Just a hunch but I think the thing to look for is an "instant" (i.e. over one day) drop of sea ice amounts in any one region by exactly one third. I think it is a rolling 3 day mean used in the CT graphs. So if one day comes back giving an error and reading of zero it will drop the sea ice amount by one third. Or at least this seems to be the case in the last few days anyway.

I think we should wait a few days before jumping to conclusions as, if you thought the CT data for The Bering Sea area was a bit questionable, have a look at the Baffin/NF region... http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...om.region.4.jpg P.S. The extreme cold which caused the ice fractures in the ice north of Canada isn't especially unusual and all these comments based on satellite imagery in isolation are only valid when produced with imagery at the same time point in previous years as I haven't come across anything to suggest that the current appearance is exceptional. I'd be really grateful if someone has such data for the same date and location for the past few years so we can make a valid comparison.

I'm not sure I understand your point. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...t.365.south.jpg The yeara on tear trend is obvious. Circa 1.5m sq km more than this time last year. What does "CT" have to say? I can't find that information. Allowing for the extra week the difference would be a minimum of 1.4m sq km or so. Overall ice extent is current significantly over 2m sq km up on the same time last year. It's not funny, it's just the current situation. We can comment on ice concentration, ENSO and everything else but the bottom line is that this data is collected by the same method every year and has been for the last 29/30 years so the data is totally comparable. Anything beyond the current data is simply a prediction. In summary in layman's terms the facts are there is a lot more sea ice than last year. Anything suggesting otherwise is just trying to spin the situation into something it is currently not. What the next few months or years hold remains to be seen.

People keep stating this but does anyone actually have reliable up to date data to back this claim up? I'd be delighted to see it as the only thing that I have to go by is the extent which is more than the last few years. The claim was always going to be made that the Arctic ice is thinner this year becuase of the events of last summer. Right now I'd like to see the evidence (from March 2008).

We have around 2cm at home a bit further out from the city centre (and this is also the depth which Dyce was reporting at 6am) Still a few snow showers about by the look of the radar.