Frostbite80
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Posts posted by Frostbite80
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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Looking at the evolution of the gfs and ec strat warming over the next few days, they begin to depart from one another by day 3. That’s very early and something isn’t right here. however, this variation in timing has been showing for a week now. at 10hpa, we would expect to see solid agreement at short lead times.
the-point here is that gfs being later on the warming allows the spv to get further east before it begins to be pushed back across the NH by the warming. Hence it makes its rotation closer to the pole and ends up near n Greenland by day 16. Ec warms faster and the spv doesn’t get much past nov zem before it’s pushed back and rotates. Hence that journey ends up closer to the Barents sea and the vortex stays displaced. This makes a tech ssw more likely to happen faster than the gfs which isn’t displaced at the end of week 2 and requires another cycle of warming to push it back to Asian side. You could make a case that the gfs solution has a greater chance of a split mid jan because a weaker vortex is likely to be stretched in week 3 and then have wave pressure applied to it.The latest cfs monthly is as wintry as I’ve seen it for JFM
I have no doubt a SSW will occur the only niggling thing in my head is that it wont help us favourably. I feel the rest of the winter will be determined by the SSW. I feel it could be one of the best cold spells for the heart of winter for some time or it could end up mild throughout, however this time I am punting for the colder option.
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Most members of the CFS now showing a reversal by mid Jan and some significantly so - even record breakingly so
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First time a GFS member is showing a reversal of zonal winds.
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Im sure this looks more tripoleesque the longer time goes on. Only a good thing IMO
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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:
Good charts
USA needs to pop a viagra
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5 minutes ago, johncam said:
A lot of it will dissappear though , that the problem.
A frigid europe does not just dissapear, 850's maybe not surface conditions and those 850's will soon drop again
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To me, its just really nice to see the depth of cold in northern europe compared to many years past. If we can get a n/ne/e there will be no issue with marginality whare as how many winters have gone by where the source was well above average meaning any snow would have been marginal at best for lowland britain.
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CFS sniffing out a SSW?
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13 minutes ago, Dennis said:gfs6z ideas
Hi Dennis, always look at your posts with interest but would it be possible for you to put just a little explanation as to what you are posting for those that arnt quite as good at reading charts as you clearly are
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2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:
Our - Meteorological service- Met Eireann in its long range forecast is saying it will be mild and unsettled for the rest of December. The only crumb of comfort for me is the EC46 didn't go for this cold spell and it can often flip in fi. I just hope we are not going to be stuck under slow moving systems for weeks on end due to heights to the North East. We had enough rain over the last six weeks.
Thats a brave call of them when we arnt even December yet.
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1 minute ago, Nick F said:
Does look like the writings on the wall for the demise of the cold spell from EPS mean and also clusters in 2 camps, the Atlantic trough taking charge having largest support by a big margin.
But for how long
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u 60N 10 hPa
WWW.WEATHERISCOOL.COM
Interesting this keeps popping up...if only
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6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Epic fail of a forecast so far for Northern Ireland, only rain and sleet thus far, even at over 400 feet.
Strange as its still sleet and wet snow here, i thought it would be rain by now especially as i am about 10 m asl
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5 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:
What do we think are the chances of a warning for E/A for tomorrow - for the potential for snow as the cold undercuts the low whilst it pivots and exits?
Next to zero i would think after all the rain, sludgy deposits at best imho
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6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
This is it coming up the Bristol Channel and into southern wales, looks a bit more lively this one!!
Not as widespread as i was expecting though.
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It all seems to be going north and not really east.....not sure where the second pulse this evening and overnight is meant to come from, no model showed the precip to get up to Lancaster im sure
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With this kind of setup i think it is radar watching as even when the lows move in they could be subject to change. It has happened many times before.
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Cold spring anyone??
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18z about to kick off, lets hope the colder trend continues!
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Is the arctic high and gl high going to join forces??
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Stronger ridge into w greenland not that its going to do us much good tbh
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
CFS for once please be right