summer blizzard

There has been a potentially on the sea surface temperture chart today in that instead of the center of the warm anomolies lining up so that the Jet Stream would be south of the British Isles, they now line up so that the Jet Stream will be over or just to the south ofthe British Isles, although that could increase the chances of low pressure traveling directly through the British Isles with a north-south divide, which would favour my area, it could be bad news for the south east, on the plus side, the cold anomolies on both sides of Greenland are spreading south and will eventually link with each other and the cold anomoly to the north of Iceland has deepened so that area is now 2.5C below average and as a result, sea ice may be forming in that region. In summery, although sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean have become less faviourable, the sea surface tempertures in the Greenland and Labrador Basins have become more faviourable.

If you mean that it is on track then yes, at leat for the negative NAO parts, i personally do not have much confidence in my forecast as i based it entirely on the teleconection trends of the past three months and due to the fact that hurricanes have intensified the Azores High through warm air advection, i feel that this winter may well turn out colder than i have predicted however that will become clear in my forecast update at the end of November.

Here is the latest sea surface temperture chart... It is good to see that almost all of the Labrador Sea is below average indicating sea ice formation in that region.

As i suspected when i was reading the first record of the event, the storm was not a hurricane and it was meerly the track of the storm which caused the damage, due to the strength of the storm, there must have been some pressty bad blizzards to the north of the storm.

Although i do not remember lying or falling snow in November in any other years except for last year, i recieved approximately 5cm of snow last year from one fall of snow which was lying for three days. The most annoying thing about the snow events last winter were that unlike the winter before, the frontal systems all decayed before bringing in the milder air so that there were no large falls of snow before milder weather took over again.

Here is the forecast which i made a week ago... "I expect Tropical Depression 24 to become Hurricane Wilma on tuesday, and turn later than the national hurricane center is predicting, this is the worst case senario as it will go through the Yucatan Straights, not loosing strength over land, i expect a weak category 5 to make landfall in Florida in one week on monday, at its peak, i expect a central pressure of 885mb and sustained windspeeds of 192mph." Looks like i was close to the mark, i predicted the exact track, was only 4mb away from the pressure and sustained windspeeds at one point were 185mph. I categorise this as a successful forecast.

The current sea surfact temperture anomolies are very encouraging, due to the fact that the cold anomolies are spreading down the eastern side of Greenland indicating that the ice may now be forming there ahead of schedule, there is also a cold anomoly developing in eastern Canada which may spread westward and even better, the posotive anomolies in the middle of the Atlantic are disipating, as long as the posotive anomoly does not get any closer to the British Isles and neither do any cold anomolies, then November is looking very promising, as is the winter as a whole.

Current strength is a strong category 2 with sustained windspeeds of 110mph, i expect it to be category 3 in the next advisory and maybe a weak category 4 by landfall.

Due to the fact that the steering front has stalled, i am expecting Hurricane Wima to move much slower than the general forecast concensus, due to the fact that i do not expect another eyewall replacement cycle either, i am expcting quite rapid development over the first half o tommorow before shear begins to effect the system. Here is my intensity prediction... FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 22.7N 85.8W 85 KT - 100mph - category 2 12HR VT 24/0000Z 23.7N 84.5W 115 KT - 130mph - category 3 24HR VT 24/1200Z 25.8N 81.5W 110 KT - 130mph - category 3 36HR VT 25/0000Z 29.5N 77.3W 90 KT - 105mph - category 2

Here is the latest discussion... 000 WTNT44 KNHC 231508 TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 WILMA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 KT... WHICH IS A MERE PREVIEW OF THE GRADUAL ACCELERATION EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED ROUGHLY OVER IOWA IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN SOME AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... WHICH WILL PUSH WILMA NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING PACE. THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE FLORIDA LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA... BUT STILL WITH SOME VARIATION IN BOTH THE SPEED AND PATH. THE GFDL IS THE SOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION... AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE PERHAPS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH WITH NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE IN THE TIMING... AND IT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD... AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE LAST RECON FIX AT ABOUT 12Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB... WHICH HAD REMAINED STEADY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS ALMOST IN THE CENTER AT THIS HOUR AND WILL PROVIDE UPDATES ON THE PRESSURE AND WINDS. FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KT GIVEN THE LIMITED CHANGES IN STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90 KT. INNER CORE CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION DO SEEM TO BE ON A GRADUAL INCREASE. AS WILMA PASSES OVER THE LOOP CURRENT TODAY...AND WHILE THE WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH... SOME INTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS... AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS A STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL... ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE OVERESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF SHEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND AS WILMA CROSSES FLORIDA... SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. WHILE THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS CATEGORY TWO...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD REACH FLORIDA AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 22.7N 85.8W 85 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 23.7N 84.5W 95 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 25.8N 81.5W 90 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 29.5N 77.3W 70 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 35.1N 72.4W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1200Z 45.0N 64.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1200Z 48.5N 55.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/1200Z 50.0N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

If the front has stalled, then Hurricane Wilma will move a lot slower and most likely take a more northward track, i doubt we will see a movement northwest however a impact anwhere from New Orleans to the Florida Keys is possible.

The data which i have posted is my forecast, not the National Hurricane Centers, while they are forecasting a weak category 3 or strong category 2 and then turning Hurricane Wilma into a extratropical Storm, i am forecasting a moderate category 3 and for Hurricane Wilma to not go extratropical.

Gray-Wolf, what do you mean when you say that the cold front is buckled, do you mean that the cold front is stalling???????????????????? It looks like there is some bad news for Florida, because Hurricane Wilma is forecast to have sustained winds of 90 knots at around 15:00 today and already has sustained windspeeds of 91 knots at 07:19, because of this, i feel that the National Hurricane Center is underestimating the strength of Hurricane Wilma by around 10 knots, here is my forecast strength... FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z - 85 KT - 100mph - category 2 12HR VT 23/1200Z - 100 KT - 115mph - category 3 24HR VT 24/0000Z - 110 KT - 125mph - category 3 36HR VT 24/1200Z - 100 KT - 115mph - categry 3 - INLAND 48HR VT 25/0000Z - 85 KT - 100mph - category 2 - OVER WATER 72HR VT 26/0000Z - 65 KT - 75mph - category 1 96HR VT 27/0000Z - 65 KT - 75mph - category 1 120HR VT 28/0000Z - 65 KT - 75mph - category 1

I think one thing which has not been mentioned in this thread is the threat of flooding again in New Orleans due to the fact that New Orleans will be under Tropical Storm force winds for approximately 78 hours however there is no threat of levee breaches in this case due to the fact that the winds will be in a mainly easterly direction.

I wonder how far west Hurricane Wilma would have to move not to be picked up by the approaching cold front, if the cold front failed to pick Hurricane Wilma up and Hurricane Wilma moved back over the sea, the a possible landfall in Texas would be on the cards or worse still, Luisiana.

I think that a prediction of category 2 at landfall is too low, i think this because Hurricane Wilma is still category 3 and she is over land, i beliee that once the eye comes back over water, there will be another period of rapid intensification due to light shear and warm se surface tempertures, because of this, i believe Hurricane Wilma will become a strong ategory 4 again or maybe even a weak category 5 before weakening to a strong category 3 or weak category 4 before landfall in Florida. Also, due to the fact that the pressure is stil very low (946mb), the pressure may fall back into the 890mb's.

I wonder, is it possible that Hurricane Rita could become a annular hurricane if the new eye is a big and more stable one, or will Hurricane Rita once agin form a small eye and have another crack at the world record?????????????????

The influence of sea surface tempertures on synoptics is not proven, however many people including myself believe that there is a link, i think that sea surface tempertures have a time lag of one month before affecting synoptics however there are obviously other factors to take into account. I base this on the fact that a cold continent and cold sea surface tempertures will mean a weaker thermal gradiant and as a result high pressure will be encouraged to form in that region, the same is true in summer exept with warm sea surfacetempertures and a warm continent encouraging high pressure. Here is the closet thing i could find to a explination: http://www.wxrisk.com/weblinks/MAPS.htm Yes, the posotive anomoly to the west of Spain will encourage cyclogenesis in that region, which would enhance the likelyhood of a southerly tracking Jet Stream however it is not as simple as that, as the chart below shows: As you can see, that chart shows that the Jet Stream was going to be fairly northerly tracking, because you can move tour finger over the main posotive anomolies, you could see that the Jet Stream could have a tendancy to leave the British Isles under mild south westerlies whereas todays chart shows the main posotive anomolies to the south of the British Isles which would put a southerly tracking Jet Stream on the cards in around one month providing that other factors are also faviourable.

Here is the latest sea surface temperture chart: As long as they are not close to the British Isles, then the developing cold pools are a good sign for the coming winter.

Kod Weather, how many eyewall replacement cycles do you think Hurricane Wilma will have if it were to make landfall on saturday???????????????????? Also, sea surface tempertures are barely 1C low than they are in Hurricane Wilma's present location and as a result, i believe Hurricane Wilma may be able to restrengthen to less than 910mb, in terms of landfall, this is the worst case senario for Florida as i believe that Hurricane Wilma will make landfall as a storong category 4 hurricane with sustained windspeeds of 147mph and a central pressure of 926mb with massive storm surges on both the east and west sides of Florida.

Here is the current sea surface temperature anomoly...

I think that intensification is very rapid if a Hurricane is resticted because land will cause the hurricane to spin more and as a result convection will increase rapidly, i remember, that the outer rainbands of Hurricane Rita did not leave Florida for three days due to the fact that she was growing at the same rate at which she was moving.

Mondy, i know the estimates seem high, however, in my opinion conditions are near perfect, i may change this forecast later, i also predicted that Rita would be category 5 when most people were predicting category 3, and i managed to predict the exact pressure of 897mb.

Here is my forecast of track and strength. I expect Tropical Depression 24 to become Hurricane Wilma on tuesday, and turn later than the national hurricane center is predicting, this is the worst case senario as it will go through the Yucatan Straights, not loosing strength over land, i expect a weak category 5 to make landfall in Florida in one week on monday, at its peak, i expect a central pressure of 885mb and sustained windspeeds of 192mph. This is a monster, coincidently, the women this season seem to be real b*****s. Is the other system being commented on classed as a Tropical Wave and if so, once it gains strength, the interactions of the two tropical systems could have the result of sending Wilma on a more southerly track, curving south eastwards before hitting southern Florida and also sending the Tropical Wave (possibly Alpha) on a track similar to Katrina however with landfall further west, possibly in eastern Texas, however i am foccusing on the soon to be Wilma for the moment. Here is the track which i think they could take if they were to interact with each other. (note, due to increased shear when the systems are interacting, both systems would not be as strong as they could be)

Looking at the satelite pictures, a Tropical Depression has clearly formed, i am going to support the UKMO track on this one which shows the system moving slowly westward but curving northward to go through the Yukatan Straight qwith a probale hit to the west New Orleans as a category 5 hurricane due to near perfect conditions, i expect a category 1 hurricane by monday night with landfall during thursday morning. Here is the UKMO model. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation