summer blizzard

That posotive anomoly will most likely grow over the next week however i expect that region to be dominated by northerlies until the end of the month afterward, with sea ice begining to form around Iceland.

Although there is less sea ice than last year near Siberia, it is good to know that the sea ice is now forming there.

I think that the anomolies are the deviation away from the monthly average, i doubt they have a daily average.

The current northern hemisphere sea surface temperature anomolies are very encouraging, although i would like to see the Chucki Sea cool down soon. The anomolies in the Pacific Ocean are also encouraging, the cold anomoly to the south west of the British Isles will favour a Omega block and therefore a posotive PNO in conjunction with the posotive anomoly near the north eastern United States however i would like to see the posotive anomoly in the middle of the Pacific Ocean move west as in its current location, it will not have much effect on the location of the Jet Stream as it will bericate before reaching the United States, due to the fact that the warm anomoly to the north east of the United States is more intense than the cold anomoly to the south west of the United States, i expect the Omega block to be displaced further west than normal resulting in a colder than average United States with a posotive PNO due to central and eastern United States being colder than average rather than the usual west-east split or displaced eastwards block resulting i warmer than average coinditions for the United States. As for the anomolies in the Atlantic, the intense cold pool to the east of Greenland will promote nothern blocking, along with the posotive anomoly in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, which will promote a southerly tracking Jet Stream and the cold anomolies in the southern Atlantic Ocean, these are all encouraging signs. Several things which could be improved are: 1) the negative anomolies in the southern Atlantic Ocean could be more widespread and intense 2) the posotive anomolies in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean should not be more intense than the cold anomolies either side of it 3) if a cold anomoly develops in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, that is okay as long as the warm anomoly is beow the cold anomoly

We do not want a cold anomoly in the mid Atlantic as that would favour a Atlantic High, although we do want cold anomolies to soround Greenland and the Bermuda region, we want cold anomolies along the latitude of France as that would favour a southerly tracking Jet Stream, i personally do not care what happens in the English Channel or North Sea.

The latest sea surface temperature charts increase my hope for a below average winter, the GIN area negative anomoly is increasing, and the posotive anomoly in the mid Atlantic Ocean is weakening, all we need now is for the negative anomoly near Bermuda to ncrease in size and strength and keep these kind of anomolies present throughout November, December and January as there is a one month time lag before synoptic effects take place in my opinion.

In my opinion, the current sea surface temperature anomolies are a lot more faviourable than last year, we have a below average GIN sea however i would like there to be a widespread 1C below average anomoly at least, hopefully that will occur, another faviourable anomoly is the warm anomolies in the mid Atlantic, which should bring the Jet Stream further south and a negative anomoly near Bermuda, this should keep the Bermuda-Azores High there, these anomolies should ensure a negative NAO however due to the position of the anomolies, there is a danger of a winter similar to 1998, if there is a cold winter, i would not expect large amounts of rainfall/snowfall, it would most likely be a 1963 type winter rather than a 1947 type winter.

One thing that may have been missed with Hurricane Rita is the flooding in Florida, the outer rainbands have not yet left Florida, must be a lot of flooding.

Kold Weather, if pressure only rises between 20mb and 30mb, during a eyewall replacement cycle then Hurricane Rita should only have a pressure as high as 930mb at the most since it peaked at 897mb.

I pesonally believe that when Hurricane Rita finishes it's eyewall replacement cycle, if it has not already, then it will bomb again, if it does pass over cooler waters, then as long as they are above 28C, they will only slow it's development rather than weaken it as most other variables such as wind sheer remain faviourable for further development. Mondy, has Hurricane Rita slowed significantly as if it has then it will be strugling to combat the high pressure, if it has not, then it is most likely going through a eyewall replacement cycle. It seems as though Hurricane Rita is now a category 4 huuricane with sustained windspeeds of only 150mph however the central pressure of 915mb is low enougth to warant a category 5 hurricane, which takes precidence, windspeed or pressure??????????

I agree, Kold Weather, if the storm is stronger then it will weaken the ridge more, it is already 25mph above expectations and i think your landfall prediction may be on the mark, since it is hitting further north than predicted, Hurricane Rita will make landfall earlier than predicted, i think that Hurricane Rita is annular and may be able to make landfall as a category 5 hurricane without any serious weakening, i believe a peak at 893mb with sustained windspeeds of 193mph will happen.

Southern Florida looks to be getting a real soacking from Hurricane Rita, it must of been raining there for at least 24 hours, and still is, flooding is a real possibility.

I think that Hurricane Katrina only had one eyewall replacement cycle, the night before landfall, if Hurricane Rita underwant a eyewall replacement cycle now, that would be a worst case senario as Hurricane Rita would have had time before landfall to restrengthen.

If Hurricane Rita can drop 1mb, she will officially be a CATEGORY 5 hurricane, looks as if my prediction has come off.

Since Hurricane Rita had a central pressure of 923mb in the last recon, it is most likely already a category 5 hurricane with a central pressure less than 920mb.

Although missing land is the best course in terms of damage, it has the negative impact of been the best course for strengthening. Although the NHC expect Hurricane Rita to weaken to category 3 before landfall, i do not feel this will happen, and expect Hurricane Rita to make landfall as a category 5 hurricane on friday night.

According to that, a category 4 hurricane is expected within the next 36 hours, looks as though my prediction may come off.

I expect a category 5 within 48 hours however i do think it will weaken as it undergoes a eyewall replacement cycle before strengthening again before landfall, the warmest sea surface temperatures are all in the western Gulf Of Mexico, which is why i can not see it weakening much before landfall.

Here is the latest discussion on Hurricane Rita. 000 WTNT43 KNHC 201737 TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED 100 MPH WINDS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REFLECT A CHANGE IN BOTH INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1800Z 23.9N 81.7W 85 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W 95 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W 105 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W 105 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W 105 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$

Here is the latest forecast advisory on Hurricane Rita. 000 WTNT23 KNHC 201736 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 1800Z TUE SEP 20 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY HAS BEEN DOWGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 81.7W AT 20/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 45NW. 34 KT.......105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 81.7W AT 20/1800Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 80.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 81.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ 938mb would mean that Hurricane Rita is expected to become a strong category 3 hurricane in 72 hours.

Here is the latest public advisory on Hurricane Rita. 000 WTNT33 KNHC 201736 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RITA REACHES 100 MPH WINDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY HAS BEEN DOWGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM... NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN THE CITY OF HAVANA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DIRECTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REACHED 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENNISULA. RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$

Kold Weather, although you are probably right, i thought that Hurricane Katrina was the second strongest on record in the Gulf Of Mexico, with a central pressure of 902mb, Hurricane Camile only had a central pressure of 907mb, are you getting mixed up with the Labour Day hurricane which had a central pressure of 892mb, with a central pressure of 907mb, i do not think sustained winds of 190mph are possible, maybe with the Labour Day hurricane though.

I am going to say that with sea surface temperatures of around 30C under her most of the way to Texas, i see no reason why Hurricane Rita will not reach category 5, maybe even stronger than Hurricane Katrian which at one point was the second strongest Hurricane on record in the Gulf Of Mexico and the sixth in the whole world with a central pressure of 902mb with sustained winds of 175mph at one point, as Hurricane Rita is now bombing, i expect a category 3 by tommorow morning and a category five hurricane by thursday morning, making landfall as a strong category 4 of weak category 5 in Huoston. Well, Hurricane Rita is already stronger than forecast and as a result the next forecast will probably be category 4, this also happened with Hurricane Katrina which was only forecast to become a weak category 4, by the time they had forecast a strong category 4 in three days, Hurricane Katrina was already a strong category 5.

In my opinion, the current anomnolies most closely match January 2002.

Here is the latest discussion. since the last recon fix shortly before 12z...which measured a 997 mb central pressure...very deep convection has wrapped around the low level center...so Rita is developing substantial inner core convection for the first time. Dvorak intensity estimates at 12z were unanimously t3.5/55 kt...which is the advisory intensity. Recon is scheduled to be back into the system early this afternoon. Rita is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 10 knots...to the south of the eastern extension of a strong mid-level ridge centered over Texas. Dynamical models are in very tight agreement through 36 hours on basically this continued heading...with perhaps a slight increase in forward speed as the ridge to the north strengthens and the tropical cyclone deepens. Most of the models and their consensus have shifted northward...and the official forecast is adjusted likewise...bringing the track closer to the Florida Keys than the previous advisory. Additionally...most of the models have shifted farther north late in the forecast period over the western Gulf of Mexico...due to a weakening ridge as a trough approaches from the western United States in several days. The official forecast is adjusted to the north or right over the Gulf...but not as far as the model consensus. Recon data and surface observations indicate the size of the storm is increasing...especially to the north of the center. The forecast wind radii are expanded based on these data...wind radii Cliper guidance...and global models depicting an expanding system. It is important to emphasize that Rita could affect a large area and one should not focus on the exact track. Atmospheric conditions are continuing to become more conducive for strengthening...and all forecast guidance suggests Rita should intensify some more...before and after it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. The new official intensity forecast is adjusted upward and is a blend between the SHIPS and GFDL guidance through day 3...and shows Rita reaching category two status before reaching the Gulf of Mexico. There is a slight possibility it could strengthen faster than forecast. All indications are that Rita will become a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico... where a large upper level anticyclone is forecast by the models to dominate and provide a weak shear environment. Forecaster Knabb forecast positions and Max winds initial 19/1500z 23.0n 75.2w 55 kt 12hr VT 20/0000z 23.4n 76.9w 70 kt 24hr VT 20/1200z 24.0n 79.4w 80 kt 36hr VT 21/0000z 24.4n 81.9w 90 kt 48hr VT 21/1200z 24.7n 84.5w 95 kt 72hr VT 22/1200z 25.5n 88.5w 100 kt 96hr VT 23/1200z 26.5n 92.5w 100 kt 120hr VT 24/1200z 29.0n 95.0w 100 kt $$