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Everything posted by summer blizzard
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50% of Euro ensemble members today went for a SSW after 27th December. The mean has also dropped to +12 on Jan 11th. So yes, it does appear that the stratosphere is forecast to experience significant distress.
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Rolling CET for November-October fell to 10.77C. I'd have said it would be difficult to match last year but actually we did get the cold start.
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29NOV2023: Nino3: 2.0 , Nino3.4: 2.0, Nino4: 1.7 November ONI came in at +1.9. SON ONI increased to +1.8.
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This is more of a Channel Low that's a bit too far north, similar to March. While we do get epic events from the east or north (6th Jan 10, 2nd Dec 10), a lot of time the frontal air is too dry and you get small flakes and blowy dust snow, the great snow from the east is shower based. Sliding Atlantic fronts (low west of Ireland, SE winds ahead of the front) deliver probably the best frontal snow as per 31st December 03, multiple Jan 13 events as these are the fat flake events. Turned to rain here at some point after 1am. It's drizzle at the moment as the front has just about cleared.
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.. The answer is that this is the warm front (triple point is near Bristol) so it's just a simple matter of us being further north since the front has a fair bit of eastward movement so it's not moving north fast. Since South Yorkshire is deeper in the front it's getting warmer air aloft. Much heavier now, grit overpowered.
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Just looking ahead to tonight. GFS says snow from about 10pm before turning to rain after about 1am. BBC says sleet from about 4pm through 5am before turning to rain for another 24 hours. Not sure it's lasting that long. Met Office says snow for 2 hours between 6-8 and then a gap until rain from 1am. Radar does suggest it's moving fairly quickly.
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Sadly I was too young to remember that. I recall vague memories of summer warmth in 94 and the sun in 95 and the snow in early 96 and 97, the snow of April 98 and then the rains of 00. Was only 5 years old in Jan 95 granted.
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Remember to ignore the lightest blue on radar because it's just thick cloud/snizzle. Alarmingly it looks like a shadow effect so the first two pulses have disappeared upon passing Rochdale and look like they are reforming just east of the M1 thus far. That could be strength related so it may not persist but that would be horrific away from perhaps Wakefield.
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Alignment looks pretty good. Almost direct for Bradford and York in a straight line from back to front though as the whole things shifts east this alignment will move east. Also looks like it's intensifying as it's starting to hit higher ground. Estimate is still 2-3 hours but it should last a while unless your unlucky and it's south of you. Would say that early in the night Bradford, Leeds and York are best, depending on how fast it shifts east, Huddersfield and Sheffield could end up having the last laugh.