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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. summer blizzard
    Interestingly it turns out that the two most likely periods to produce a SSW are 1st-10th January and 20th-28th February. GFS0z operational got as low as 8ms today but the GFS ensemble mean to 1st Jan was still 20ms. 37% of Euro ensembles do get a SSW between the 7th-29th January (only 17% during week 1 of Jan now) but as the mean is actually rising, I think that's noise. So my message is essentially that it looks like we don't get a SSW during early January.
  2. summer blizzard
    Low is still weak so while it may rain for a long time due to track, it probably won't be that heavy.
  3. summer blizzard
    Anything last March. We got 15cm.
  4. summer blizzard
    Assume your referring to 14 years rather than a decade, Jan 21 was colder than Jan 13 (though the later did have the coldest spell). I'm maybe 40% supportive.
  5. summer blizzard
    There's normally a lag so globally it's impact would be 2025 however for the UK there's no strong annual link. 2011 and 2014 were very mild and during/after La Nina.
  6. summer blizzard
    06DEC2023: Nino3: 2.0 , Nino3.4: 1.9, Nino4: 1.4 MEI also increased to +0.6.
  7. summer blizzard
    About 50% of members go for an SSW with the highest concentration between 1st-12th January.
  8. summer blizzard
    Aug-Nov 2019 was very wet, it just dried up a little by December while this year waited until mid October.
  9. summer blizzard
    Others have described it well however the two simplest reasons are.. 1) High pressure in winter essentially traps cooler surface air when it builds behind a cold front, this makes it difficult for a high to sustainably produce mild weather unless it remains in place several days 2) In winter the continent is relatively cool and thus a persistant SE flow will tend to draw relatively cool air while the SW flows capable of producing warmth are by their nature less likely to persist because the westerlies will tend to try push the high east.
  10. summer blizzard
    Some people in the model thread need to breathe. December was always more likely to be somewhat hostile to prolonged cold as per my own favoured analogue set. December vs Jan for example.
  11. summer blizzard
    Perb 3 was best, placement > strength.
  12. summer blizzard
    The question is whether the 16 day GFS operations have greater resolution in the stratosphere than the Euro 32 day forecast.
  13. summer blizzard
    Worth remembering that this is decaying WWB from November as per that chart. There was always a chance that it would wane, especially relative to the last orbit.
  14. summer blizzard
    As Nick explains, when the high builds initially it traps the cooler air that passes the UK on the 14th. Because the high is sufficiently strong, even the intrusion of warm upper air does not entirely remove this at the surface over England. By the time the incoming low is mixing out the air, the GFS has the next cold push.
  15. summer blizzard
    I'd not worry too much. We have a reasonal amplitude tropical cycle forecast between phases 4-7 (GFS keeps going back and forth on phase (8)) and phases 4-6 in December are pretty zonal (we actually do well to keep higher than average pressure in the current output). The blocking around the UK/North East of the UK is mainly a phase 7-8 thing and current output allowing for a week or so's lag puts that near xmas. Basically when the weather is doing what the tropical cycle says it should, that's not a bad thing because the pattern will probably shift. It's when it does its own thing that we need to headscratch.
  16. summer blizzard
    That's an impressive slip back to La Nina.
  17. summer blizzard
    Yes. Always possible that we get screwed over however what makes me a little optimistic is that the 11th is not runs end which means it sees a genuine push from a cluster rather than just going through the trend motions.
  18. summer blizzard
    While December was horrific and felt genuinely warm, Jan-March was not overly bad. It was a poor Q1 but no worse than most winters and actually had brief frosts and snow here. Critically, it was still a winter.
  19. summer blizzard
    This has long been my assumption, albeit the long range Euro ensemble mean is still probably more accurate than most similar length models and I don't believe it's a corporate product at that range (i.e. they can afford to get it wrong and revise so long as they get the first 1-3 weeks).
  20. summer blizzard
    As much as my prior thoughts pointed to the final third supporting the GFS type scenario of a build back over the pole, the tropical signal has become a little less robust in its movement (staying further west basically) which at this time of year supports a block closer to the north east of the UK rather than north west so while still strong possibilities that it could be cool given inversions, the period may look more like 2006 than 2009.
  21. summer blizzard
    The only endless Autumn I have been forced to endure was 2013/2014. It was offensive to the very soul.
  22. summer blizzard
    50% of Euro ensemble members today went for a SSW after 27th December. The mean has also dropped to +12 on Jan 11th. So yes, it does appear that the stratosphere is forecast to experience significant distress.
  23. summer blizzard
    Rolling CET for November-October fell to 10.77C. I'd have said it would be difficult to match last year but actually we did get the cold start.
  24. summer blizzard
    29NOV2023: Nino3: 2.0 , Nino3.4: 2.0, Nino4: 1.7 November ONI came in at +1.9. SON ONI increased to +1.8.
  25. summer blizzard
    Never found them a problem, unlike the Pennines they are not really high enough to kill convection. Our biggest issue is that the ENE flows tends to push convection south so we get scattered showers while South Yorkshire gets streamers thanks to us being directly west of the Wash.
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