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Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Ben Sainsbury
    Some further developments on the far western fring of this large MCS. Maybe something even closer to home for us in Bristol/Bath/Gloucester next hour or so if it becomes electrified.
  2. Ben Sainsbury
    A lot of cloud and muck obscuring the occasional flashes here!
  3. Ben Sainsbury
    Both that and cloud bases being elevated too.
  4. Ben Sainsbury
    Thought the lightning didn't want to stray into international waters
  5. Ben Sainsbury
    Can see occasional flashes from cell N of Southampton from here!
  6. Ben Sainsbury
    With large thunderstorms being present earlier, there may be a bit of cold pooling about potentially? Unfortunately, I don't expect to see much/any more lightning from this mass of rain.
  7. Ben Sainsbury
    A number of elevated thunderstorms developing on the S coast... Not sure models were particularly keen in recent runs for this to happen. The amount of lightning in the channel right now is pretty nuts! Just shows never to write any event off too early.
  8. Ben Sainsbury
    Hoping with the rash of elevated showers developing over S Devon/Somerset, that some of these may turn electrified.
  9. Ben Sainsbury
    Forecast steering winds remain NNE-NE for the rest of the night. Storms aren't likely to upscale until the overnight hours, so plenty of time to work with yet and instability is expected to continue advecting northwards. However, I think unless your in the far S, SE or EA then I'd be surprised to see anything else tonight.
  10. Ben Sainsbury
    That Bridport cell is going wild... Lightningmaps wildly overestimate number of strikes, but even that's suggesting one a second.
  11. Ben Sainsbury
    With concerns over the saturation of the atmosphere, I can't lie these storms are more active than I was expecting.
  12. Ben Sainsbury
    Someone tell @Alderc 2.0 to wake up, probably see some decent lightning to the south-west.
  13. Ben Sainsbury
    Looks that way!
  14. Ben Sainsbury
    Remains to be seen how far these cells can remain active as they move onshore. Models suggest they won't remain very active as they continue further northwards, so if they carry on as they are, then can only be positive signs going forward. Possibly suggesting larger/stronger pool of instability if so.
  15. Ben Sainsbury
    UKV 12z would be an exceptional run for many south of the M4 tomorrow. But the UKV is always wrong, so it's forecast for tomorrow will be wrong
  16. Ben Sainsbury
    Quite frankly gutted I missed the cluster of severe thunderstorms over Lincolnshire/The Wash yesterday. I think I disregarded the risk too easily due to the flip-flopping nature of the models.
  17. Ben Sainsbury
    Just SE of Bedale in good position for firing cells to SSW. Plenty of towering AcCas now.
  18. Ben Sainsbury
    Yet seemingly all the clag didn't have an impact on the storms over the far N of England or Peterborough.
  19. Ben Sainsbury
    I'm very conflicted and struggling to figure out why it's not quite happening here yet...
  20. Ben Sainsbury
    Currently just W of Thirsk, waiting for developments. Models seem keen on destabilisation over the N Mids in next hour or two.
  21. Ben Sainsbury
    Currently just E of Harrogate, off the A1(M), with a spectacular view. Warm and humid with good clearance to my south. Seems all the ingredients are coming together.
  22. Ben Sainsbury
    Similar idea to myself, A1/A64 interchange is my target. Good road network. Storm motion likely to be NNE-NE which favours the A64.
  23. Ben Sainsbury
    With a chance of this weekend being the last large thunderstorm days, decided I’m going to head on my first two day chase. Today going to target a few isolated thunderstorms over the East Mids, ready then to get into position for what could be a big day tomorrow. Still a lot of uncertainty for tomorrow, so remains to be seen what my exact plans are going to be. Let me know if any of you are also going to be out chasing!
  24. Ben Sainsbury
    AROME 18z possibly one of the best charts I've seen modelled for the UK on Sunday. Locally 2,000J/Kg+ in a moderately sheared environment and develops into what appears to be a brutal surface-based MCS for UK standards.
  25. Ben Sainsbury
    Liked the look of it so much you had to say it 3 times
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