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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Models not seemingly had the best grasp of this, can only be a positive sign going forward for the next few days. UKV now has strong surface-based storms developing on Saturday afternoon too. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
A lot of research suggests that if the Gulf Stream were to stop, then our weather would become more akin to Continental Europe. Winters colder and drier, Summer hotter and drier. Not sure how it would impact the thunderstorm front. Potentially, fewer thunderstorms but when they occur, likely to be more intense? -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Purely a spectacle rather than a forecast. But ICON 0z has 3,000 J/Kg of MLCAPE on Sunday across East Anglia. Not seen anything like it. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Pembrokeshire will be happy! Like to think most elevated parts of Wales with a view to the Irish Sea should see a few flashes. Though, main destabilisation anyway judging by models not until dawn now. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
First sferics off Cornwall. Elsewhere, showers over NW France beginning to look more potent. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Signs of mid-level instability here too. Satellite is promising and as @ChannelThunder said, AROME 12z is promising too. UKV remains decent for far SW. Fingers crossed. Looking further ahead, Saturday night and Sunday looking more of a widespread risk. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Airmass is very quite unstable it appears this evening and tonight, just a lack of forcing is an issue. Met Office still has a trough moving northwards around midnight across SW England & Wales and often these small-scale features are hard to pick up on the models. Still hoping for a few surprises tonight. If AROME is anything to go by, then watching the Bay of Biscay rest of this afternoon/evening, might be an indication of what's to come tonight. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Ben Sainsbury replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A number of stations bordering 30C today, so I have no doubt with the current model output that we'll break the 2023 max temp record sometime within the next few days. And by the way, if GFS 12z is anything to go by, we're looking at 30C somewhere everyday until next Tuesday at the earliest! -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Setups like these are our high risk, high reward scenarios. Often in the UK, our convection isn't capped, so it freely goes up without much explosivity, generally producing weaker storms. Whereas later this week, we're more akin to the US, where if we can break the cap, we could be looking at some particularly explosive thunderstorms! -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Bloody beat me to it! Looks impressive nevertheless. Typical the only night shift I have this week, is on Wednesday night. Would be willing to chase this otherwise. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Still no consistency... as @ChannelThunder says, ECM looks great for Cornwall! Elevated convection is one of the most difficult challenges for NWP models at this point in time, so it seems Wednesday night may throw some surprises! On the flip side, nothing may develop at all, but I know which scenario I'd prefer. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Well... Wednesday night into Thursday is looking good on the UKV, for the western half of the UK anyway. Moderate CAPE in a high sheared environment with steep mid-level lapse rates. Good signs, we just need some consistency. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Ben Sainsbury replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Correct. Warm-cored system, developing over SSTs of ~27C. To make matters funnier too, what looks to be a tropical system, possibly hurricane, heading east towards Portugal at T276. -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Given flow is more southerly or south-southeasterly, it looks like if we do get some storms, then more should be at risk than recent events! -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Ben Sainsbury replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If we're going for high temperatures then we need to hope that the flow across the UK passes over the Channel from the Near Continent rather than the North Sea. It looks like we'll have a few days of drying out the surface before the warmest 850s move over, so I still think we'll exceed 30C. The NetWx MR shows what may be possible? Going for 33C locally on Monday and Tuesday isn't too dissimilar. -
European Storm & Convective Discussion
Ben Sainsbury replied to A.J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Got this one too in a great spot in Can Pastilla, Mallorca. Just needs to zoom out a bit. https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/spain/balearic-islands/can-pastilla-mallorca.html -
European Storm & Convective Discussion
Ben Sainsbury replied to A.J's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Anyone have any webcams they're aware of in the Balearics? I've got a mate in Ibiza at the moment, but his hangover is probably preventing him from looking outside for me... Only I've got is this so far, looks a bit gusty. 【LIVE】 Webcam Ibiza - Sant Antoni de Portmany | SkylineWebcams WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM Travel to the Balearic Islands with our Ibiza webcam on Sant Antoni de Portmany beach! Spend your crazy summer in Europe's most vibrant destination! -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Keeping you happy then @Alderc 2.0 -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Classic day of sunny spells and thundery showers across large parts of the UK today. If we get good sunny spells across Eastern half of the UK, then storms may be able to utilise modest speed shear and may represent some organisation. Should be a reasonable amount of lightning about today. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
That is a fantastic shout. I’ll have to look more into the 2016 event. At first glance maybe 2016 shows bit more digging south of the trough which may allow a slightly greater advection of hot air towards the southeast. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
If UKV 9z is anything to go by could be a very thundery day tomorrow across the SE. AROME 6z was a shift northwards too. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The stormforecast.eu shows some interesting probability charts for the far SE. Shows how much uncertainty there is at this stage as this has a 50-75% lightning probability stretching NE from Somerset to Lincolnshire, despite the majority of our main convective models showing very little. Not sure I've seen a 5-10% 2cm+ hail line over any part of the UK at any point this year? If we can improve on confidence with regards to the far SE seeing something, this would definitely fall within my chase territory. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
How nice of the ARPEGE to follow the N France coastline... Really is painful living in the UK! If it's any consolation the NetWx MR has an MCS tearing across SE England in a 35m/s sheared environment. Don't give up till it's over I guess! -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The 06z runs this morning bring S/SE England agonisingly close to some pretty spectacular thunderstorms (a positive trend vs the last 24/48 hours), given the CAPE and DLS overlap. We're definitely within the realms of this possibility, should the boundary of the warm airmass advect 50-100 miles or so further northwards. Just a few more positive adjustments needed and I wouldn't rule it out given the underestimation of the strength of the heat dome over Central Europe. However, as it stands this is screaming the dreaded, Kent Clipper. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
Ben Sainsbury replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Seems to be on the boundary between the warm airmass to the south and the cold airmass coming down from the north. Where that boundary lies there could be some pretty torrential thunderstorms. A lot of the models have these over the Channel/N France, but UKV has consistently shown these developing over the UK. Some very strong deep layer shear being modelled by UKV, with some large CAPE to the S/SE, so some organised storms are possible but need greater confidence before we can firm up on the details.