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Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Ben Sainsbury
    UKV 12z would be an exceptional run for many south of the M4 tomorrow. But the UKV is always wrong, so it's forecast for tomorrow will be wrong
  2. Ben Sainsbury
    Quite frankly gutted I missed the cluster of severe thunderstorms over Lincolnshire/The Wash yesterday. I think I disregarded the risk too easily due to the flip-flopping nature of the models.
  3. Ben Sainsbury
    Just SE of Bedale in good position for firing cells to SSW. Plenty of towering AcCas now.
  4. Ben Sainsbury
    Yet seemingly all the clag didn't have an impact on the storms over the far N of England or Peterborough.
  5. Ben Sainsbury
    I'm very conflicted and struggling to figure out why it's not quite happening here yet...
  6. Ben Sainsbury
    Currently just W of Thirsk, waiting for developments. Models seem keen on destabilisation over the N Mids in next hour or two.
  7. Ben Sainsbury
    Currently just E of Harrogate, off the A1(M), with a spectacular view. Warm and humid with good clearance to my south. Seems all the ingredients are coming together.
  8. Ben Sainsbury
    Similar idea to myself, A1/A64 interchange is my target. Good road network. Storm motion likely to be NNE-NE which favours the A64.
  9. Ben Sainsbury
    With a chance of this weekend being the last large thunderstorm days, decided I’m going to head on my first two day chase. Today going to target a few isolated thunderstorms over the East Mids, ready then to get into position for what could be a big day tomorrow. Still a lot of uncertainty for tomorrow, so remains to be seen what my exact plans are going to be. Let me know if any of you are also going to be out chasing!
  10. Ben Sainsbury
    AROME 18z possibly one of the best charts I've seen modelled for the UK on Sunday. Locally 2,000J/Kg+ in a moderately sheared environment and develops into what appears to be a brutal surface-based MCS for UK standards.
  11. Ben Sainsbury
    Liked the look of it so much you had to say it 3 times
  12. Ben Sainsbury
    Both days are an improvement on latest probabilistic charts. Sunday I may add shows a small 15-25% of hail >2cm, which is something I've never seen over the UK since this product has been released. Also a 5% probability for 5cm hail too.
  13. Ben Sainsbury
    You'll do very well to get a day with all 3 important factors for big storm development. I actually prefer a day like tomorrow over a typical sunshine and showers day, these storms likely to be incredibly photogenic and producing prolific lightning if they develop.
  14. Ben Sainsbury
    The cap has broken!
  15. Ben Sainsbury
    Exactly this, in the latest Met O video on Twitter Aiden mentions "significant thunderstorms" but these will be incredibly isolated and I'm sure will catch a lot of people out this weekend if they're caught in one!
  16. Ben Sainsbury
    You could say so, but today and this weekend is a forecasters nightmare. AROME 6z is worlds different to the 0z. The only agreement we have at the moment are isolated thunderstorms across the Midlands tomorrow evening, followed by elevated storms across the far SW tomorrow night. But even then, there are considerable uncertainties here.
  17. Ben Sainsbury
    And here it is, 2% chance of >5cm hail for Sunday afternoon...
  18. Ben Sainsbury
    Not too bad for us southerners on Saturday evening, models seem to be alternating between some strong surface-based storms and active elevated thunderstorms. Plenty of uncertainty, but plenty of positive solutions for this weekend. For good measure this is how Saturday morning starts off vs Sunday morning. Sign of the potential severity to thunderstorms on Sunday. Wonder if the 0z run in the morning shows us a very rare hatched for hail > 5cm for the afternoon/evening?
  19. Ben Sainsbury
    Models not seemingly had the best grasp of this, can only be a positive sign going forward for the next few days. UKV now has strong surface-based storms developing on Saturday afternoon too.
  20. Ben Sainsbury
    A lot of research suggests that if the Gulf Stream were to stop, then our weather would become more akin to Continental Europe. Winters colder and drier, Summer hotter and drier. Not sure how it would impact the thunderstorm front. Potentially, fewer thunderstorms but when they occur, likely to be more intense?
  21. Ben Sainsbury
    Purely a spectacle rather than a forecast. But ICON 0z has 3,000 J/Kg of MLCAPE on Sunday across East Anglia. Not seen anything like it.
  22. Ben Sainsbury
    Pembrokeshire will be happy! Like to think most elevated parts of Wales with a view to the Irish Sea should see a few flashes. Though, main destabilisation anyway judging by models not until dawn now.
  23. Ben Sainsbury
    First sferics off Cornwall. Elsewhere, showers over NW France beginning to look more potent.
  24. Ben Sainsbury
    Signs of mid-level instability here too. Satellite is promising and as @ChannelThunder said, AROME 12z is promising too. UKV remains decent for far SW. Fingers crossed. Looking further ahead, Saturday night and Sunday looking more of a widespread risk.
  25. Ben Sainsbury
    Airmass is very quite unstable it appears this evening and tonight, just a lack of forcing is an issue. Met Office still has a trough moving northwards around midnight across SW England & Wales and often these small-scale features are hard to pick up on the models. Still hoping for a few surprises tonight. If AROME is anything to go by, then watching the Bay of Biscay rest of this afternoon/evening, might be an indication of what's to come tonight.
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