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Vertical Limit

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  1. Vertical Limit
    Great post Chio - thankyou. Your thoughts and explanations make it a lot easier for a novice like me to get to grips with understanding the complexities of the Strat. On a side note, I also would like to ask if there are any signals yet for a Canadian warming to occur or not, or is it still too early to tell? Regards VL
  2. Vertical Limit
    Thanks for this AWD. Matt's thoughts for November seem to mirror the ECM 32 day forecast, a month of two halves? He also mentioned over on the Strat thread that the synoptics showing in the ECM 32 day forecast for the second half of November are similar to Nov 10. Very interesting to see if this will be correct.
  3. Vertical Limit
    Ooops, sorry Coast, I'll keep a lid on it.
  4. Vertical Limit
    I think 1962 just had the one Canadian warming event in November and that turned out to be an epic winter for us if you like severe cold and snow so some impact must have been made on the PV, perhaps driving it to Siberia. I think 1968 had 2 warming events and although it was a cold winter it wasn't as severe as 62 (I assume 68 had a Canadian warming in November and a SSW further down the line). Just going by these 2 years it suggests to me that a Canadian warming is not necessarily a predictor to a SSW warming later on and a combination of warmings does not necessarily make the winter any more severe.
  5. Vertical Limit
    Hello everyone. I have just been over on the Strat thread and Chio has posted a trial prediction today for a Canadian warming event to happen mid/back end of November. Interestlngly the analogue years are 1962 and 68. If the predication came to fruition then which year would we want a repeat of for the South East? I am pretty certain 62 delivered an epic winter for us (if you like severe cold and snow that is) but I am not sure if 68 was as good for the South East?
  6. Vertical Limit
    Many thanks Chio. I have been doing some very basic research and I think I'm right in saying that there is more frequency of an SSW event in an easterly QBO. I also read that SSW events occur on average every 2 years but not necessarily in sequence, IE: none occurred for a period during the late eighties and early nineties but there have been 9 SSW's since 2000. I wonder what the link is to the frequency of theses SSW events since 2000 and the QBO. I think I need to go back over yours and GP's posts to try and understand as much as I can about teleconnections, causes and the triggers. I do find this a fascinating aspect of meteorology. Regards VL
  7. Vertical Limit
    I ditto that BA. Not too fussed about patterns in November provided path to winter during next 3-4 weeks sees a rapid increase to snow cover to the Eurasion/Siberian/North Europen and Scandanavian areas, increase in NH ozone levels in conjuction with current QBO/Solar Flux phase to propogate a strat warming event at end of November, to open floodgates from mid decemeber. Just my hopes and wishes without expectation!
  8. Vertical Limit
    Hello everyone. As a newbie, I'm not 100% sure I should be posting here but I have a question about strat warming events which I hope somebody would be kind enough to answer. From reading through the posts and trying to understand the technical speak, I'm I correct in thinking a SSW event is different to Canadian warming event? If so, do they have different impacts on the PV and how it might affect the UK? Thanks VL
  9. Vertical Limit
    Are the temperatures for Kent on Saturday forecasted to be 7 degrees daytime max, dropping to about zero overnight? Just that I'm off to an evening wedding reception on Saturday - Marquee and Portaloos (can't believe it's an outside event at this time of year). So just want to be prepared.
  10. Vertical Limit
    I do hope he is correct again this year. Edit: the article was in the Belfast Telegraph - my apologies.
  11. Vertical Limit
    For a bit of fun, an Article from today's Irish Telegraph. Donegal postman Michael Gallagher sends snow forecast 4 0 5Tuesday, 23 October 2012 Ireland should prepare for a harsh winter because snow is on its way, an amateur forecaster has warned. Donegal postman Michael Gallagher has said he is "99 percent sure" there will be heavy falls before Christmas. Mr Gallagher, who makes his predictions by studying plants and animals, has written a bestselling book, 'Traditional Weather Signs'. "I have never seen as many berries on the trees in the mountains and the birds are singing very loudly in recent days," he said. "I'm 99pc sure we'll have plenty of snow," he added. Not sure what animal he studies, maybe it's the Groundhog! Apparently though, he forecasted the last 2 winters in Ireland correctly - who needs science!
  12. Vertical Limit
    Still murky, damp and cool near Bromley this morning, looking ahead to Saturday, going to a wedding in Maidstone - outdoors, Marquee and Portaloos, should be interesting, had better take a hot water bottle and a blanket!
  13. Vertical Limit
    Hi GP, as a complete newbie and still learning to crawl, I do enjoy reading your very informative posts as I do with Chio's posts and post from other knowledgable members. From a cold perspective, I am pleased to read that there are still some positive signals and projections that would induce a more blocked pattern as we head into winter. I will be keeping a close eye on this thread for further updates. Regards VL
  14. Vertical Limit
    Thanks for you reply Tom, most helpful and I am learning all the time. Cheers VL
  15. Vertical Limit
    Hi Tom, thanks for the welcome. I hear that Thames streamers are great for our neck of the woods. I remember that event in Feb 2009, a real heavy battering of snow in a short space of time - wonderful stuff. I remember Nov 30th 2010 and how it snowed for 3 days non stop leading to accumulations of about 18 - 20 inches - was that a result of a Thames streamer too?. I think Orpington station even got a mention on the national news as it was closed for a couple of days so our location got a real pasting. Let's hope we get a repeat this year - fingers crossed.
  16. Vertical Limit
    They're right about a foggy London Town and South East this morning but I just stuck my head out the back door and it is definitely not 20 degrees.
  17. Vertical Limit
    Thanks again everyone.
  18. Vertical Limit
    Thanks for the welcome everytone. I'm not sure how to reply to multi posts all at once, if that is possible! I am buckled up and ready for the fun with valium to hand if we should get a repeat of 2011. LOL.
  19. Vertical Limit
    Hi all, I have been lurking in the shadows since last winter and finally decided to join in with the fun. Reading through the posts the past week, there seems to be elation one minute and wrist slashing the next, fuelled no doubt by the recent model outputs and the discussions on the Strat thread and so on. Personally I am hoping for a cold and snowy winter and a repeat of 2009 and 2010 would be most welcome but anything can happen as many suggest although it seems to me we're in a much better position (at present) than we were this time last for the possibility a colder winter. Very interesting times ahead and plenty to play for!
  20. Vertical Limit
    Hi All, I have been lurking in the shadows since last winter. Netweathers' a great site so finally decided to join the fun. It is very misty today. walked the dog earlier and barely had 250 yards of visibility. Looking forward to the colder shot this weekend and hoping it will be the theme for this winter!
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