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bryan629

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    Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by bryan629
    dupliate images

    So just for fun i decided to peer deeply into the muddy waters of the netweather crystal ball , which also has a good smattering of tea leaves for good measure! 

    Something caught my eye this morning from the GFS way out in neverland to something i saw on X yesterday, so i put A+B together and arrived more than likely at Z , 

    First off is the MJO prediction for late october and early november: 

    HP dominated wesern europe which seems to drift northeast over to Scandi. 

    mjo1.thumb.png.f5e6a81a82a178297a2b88ee7e51c669.pngmjo2.thumb.png.9087413fe9350c19e340e3e734f1d1d4.png

    Then as mentioned the GFS late OCT             Early NOV

    gfsnh-anon.thumb.png.e7d1787e92b54ffb71c05f563e22d940.png           gfsnh-12-384.thumb.png.55559c46d48ae17eae7042aa87750ba6.png

    So nothing particularly striking about these charts, unless you like a south easterly. I just found it uncanny that yesterdays MJO prediction looks a lot like the GFS 00z 

    gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.eb27e714a83c8ddeb5edff31907a24d6.png  gfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.307513742299b5f90a4822f00941290c.png

     

    Absolutely not wheeling out the `P` word at all.. and all just for fun, so nobody needs to wake Nick Sussex just yet. 😄

     

    Could contain:

    • Like 5

    Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    With some references today talking of " Water Vapour " in the strat. Im assuming this Vapour would actually be ice crystals being so high up. Do the weather ballons measure the ice crystals. 

    I was also wondering about the Antarctic polar vortex and if was stronger and faster spinning than normal or slower and weaker? might give us an idea if and how all the WV may impact on our SPV this year. 

    Loving the cansips update BTW ,but how come they are smoothed out to the point there is no sign anywhere of the trop PV on them? 

     

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Correct. Warm-cored system, developing over SSTs of ~27C. 

    To make matters funnier too, what looks to be a tropical system, possibly hurricane, heading east towards Portugal at T276.

    Yes.. looks like the 6z following GEFS 0z control... obviously a long way off and nothing guaranteed. Seems to follow the coastline. Great for surfers at Lazarous i expect, or insane!!  Maybe Tamaras watching and breathing a sigh of relief 😋

    gfs-0-336.thumb.png.1f50b0f1e61205be08adc0f3eb43fc18.png

    Polar Vortex / Stratosphere Watch 2022 / 2023

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Recretos published this earlier discussing the relationship with an El Nino and an EQBO this coming winter

    weather-winter-season-qbo-stratosphere-e

    cropped-favicon-180x180.png A Stratospheric wind anomaly is developing over the Equator, expected to impact the Weather along the El Nino in the next Winter Season » Severe Weather Europe

    WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU
    Winter Weather in the United States, Canada and Europe will be influenced by the changing wind anomalies in the Stratosphere over the Tropics

     

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

     

    Cloud cleared up nicely today inland..about flippin time too. Looking at this satellite loop cloud in the North Sea looks to be very thin, if not a lot drier air as well.  So hopefully if it does move inland again tonight it should break dead quick tomorrow morning.. hope the east coast gets to enjoy some decent sunny spells as well. Looking forward to a warm/Very warm weekend now. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    Yes, you correctly called that... despite what all indications were suggesting 👍

    It is still astonishing that CPC are adamant about a regressing HP despite all the other overwhelming evidence of an easterly progressing HP .. even the discussion on their website states above average chance of that 4 out of 5 . 

    I suspect a change in their anomoly charts fairly soon. 

    814day.03(1).thumb.gif.3cd77d5aac53d008eecced174e18046e.gif

    Thank you @Tamara too, brilliant insight that the NWP were barking up the wrong tree and hope you have a great summer ! 

    • Like 3

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, NeeNar said:

    Spent all night pulling people out of snow and getting them to safety, time for a snooze now. Was out between 0100-0700, A59 between Skipton amd Harrogate was measuring 40-50cm on the road at that time at high points, drifting higher than that. We had to use service 4x4s rather than actual fire engines because of road conditions.

    Could contain: Light, Aircraft, Transportation, Vehicle, Airplane

    I was meant to travel the A59 from about 8am to get to Keighley from Ripon. I had a feeling it would be bad on that road, specially the winding steep inclination to the top from Swinsty reservoir..then even if that was managed the long run over the moors to Beamsley hill.. i reckoned it would be really bad up there so just cancelled my appointments. 

    I just want to say a really big thank you to people like you whom rise well above and beyond the call of duty and serve the public the wat you do .. Thank you 🙂 🙂 

    • Like 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, DevinW said:

    Hello, long time lurker here. I Have been overlooking this forum for over a year now and with this upcoming snow event I couldn't handle the excitement and just had to join😁 Hoping this snow finally delivers something here, I don't think we have seen snow around here since late 2021!

    Hi Devin, happy to see you and hope you like what you read.. Middleton is quite high up and usually does well when it snows compared to lower parts of leeds. hope you have a sledge ready for Miggy hill 🙂

    • Like 1
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