FrenchScotPilot1

I join the congratulation wagon! Well done to you both.

Some light rain earlier in Aberdeen. Below satellite pic courtesy of Dundee University. Seems very sunny almost everywhere else than our corner. https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17979-satellite-image-2413/

Thanks lorenzo!

Thanks lorenzo, I'll have a read about it on my lunch break What I'm interested in at the moment is to try and understand globa climate teleconnections, the link between all the different indices and what to expect down the line in Europe when PDA, QBO or MJO changes. If you get what I'm on about. Where can I find practical and comprehensive info on this? Many thanks!

For the first time in a long time, there is a probability for light rain today in Aberdeen. Also noteworthy is the very impressive jump to positive values for our Arctic friend!

I wonder what they use to produce charts 9 months ahead...

Mathematically 33/66

Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation indices are forecast to rise to positive value by mid month. High pressure looks set to develop to the south whilst low pressure develops to the NW. The return of the Atlantic!

Come on guys, 1 more post after this one and we reach 1000!

No problem. Synoptic forcing relates to the size and time scale of the phenomenon. Synoptic scale is typically 1000 km.

Surface high pressure is obtained when mass is added to the air column aloft. The result is upper mass divergence and surface mass divergence. On the contrary, vertical ascent is achieved is various ways: - Synoptic forcing through advection of positive vorticity, upper level divergence - Orographic lifting, where air ir forced over mountains - Frontal lifting, where warmer less dense air rides over cold denser air - Convection where warm bubbles get buoyant and rise due to instability Discounting convection and orographic liftings, typical vertical speeds are in fractions of inches per seconds (a few cm/s).

High pressure to the NE gives positive vertical velocities (sinking motion). Though the flow is still E'ly/NE'ly, there are very few showers because there is almost no ascent to create clouds.

Are you implying we need to get a life? I don't want that, it's a jungle out there Joke apart, I'll find it boring. Winter is interesting weather wise. Summer is boring because we don't even have thunderstorm to forecast, only haar...

Very dry small hail early morning early. Didn't stick to the car at all. Soundings look quite dry (environmental and dew point temperature curves apart) for the next few days. Radar looks quite void of anything substantial. High pressure moves in for the week end preventing convective ascent.

Aberdeen airport forecast gives a low probability of light snow showers overnight. Winds are forecast to ease as well, which is not good for moisture mixing and transport. Whereas, Edinburgh and Glasgow airports forecasts give intermittent light snow showers (not a prob) and a probability of moderate snow showers overnight. This is well illustrated on the radar at the moment, showing the far NE quite deprived of showers. Soundings for Aboyne (30 miles WSW of Aberdeen) gives good convection signals for Friday 12.00 with marked instability and 5000 ft thick clouds. Tomorrow, clouds depth is much shallower (2000 ft max) with a drier atmosphere.

Becoming much quieter now in the NE. Radar is void of inbound shower activity. Sunny, +3/-2, 10 mpg ENE. Glorious winter day ... in late March!

Radar shows bands of moderate showers but no idea what ground conditions are.

MetO issued ice warnings for eastern parts: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

What I should have said, instead of convection, is cloud thickness!

Very quickly, it shows continuing convection today, a little less tomorrow, better on Friday and it gets drier with the High for the week end.

Definitely a difference indeed. Some larger echoes on radar. In the words of Hannibal Smith: "I love when a forecast comes together!"

Dyce was on northern edge, we only got flurries.

Quite a high probability, I'd say. Showers will give variable amounts though. Let us know how it went.