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FrenchScotPilot1

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Everything posted by FrenchScotPilot1

  1. FrenchScotPilot1
    What are the DP forecasted at?
  2. FrenchScotPilot1
    It depends what snow it's been talked about: convectinve or frontal. A cooler sea means very cold uppers are needed to trigger convective showers (absolute instability). For frontal activity, I don't think it makes a difference. Not sure why the N Sea is mentioned.
  3. FrenchScotPilot1
    I would think more along the lines of Easter is at the end of the winter: the atmosphere had the whole winter to cool down, just before the Sun starts to get strong again. December is the start. I'll stand corrected though
  4. FrenchScotPilot1
    Great thanks! I knew abut the -5 or lower but it indeed depends on specific location.
  5. FrenchScotPilot1
    Surface pressure charts show an occluded front ahead of the warm front. That would explain the 2 bands.
  6. FrenchScotPilot1
    Yes I sometimes wonder about their criteria too. Unless, it is to cover themselves just in case...
  7. FrenchScotPilot1
    The thing that should also be stopped is what people WANT. I know it is a natural human behaviour but weather will happen regardless of Andy being fed up with cold and snow in Scotland or Paddy wanting snow for the first time this winter in his back garden in Ireland! I'd rather read informed opinions of what might happen based on model outputs. Rant over
  8. FrenchScotPilot1
    Snow warnings for Scotland back up... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1
  9. FrenchScotPilot1
    Indeed, MetO use a likelihood/risk matrix: is it going to happen and if so, what are the impacts?
  10. FrenchScotPilot1
    Showers are always of convective nature. Question is: will it be convective snow or front snow?
  11. FrenchScotPilot1
    High pressure to our N could stall the fronts further S indeed.
  12. FrenchScotPilot1
    The AO has barely been positive at all this year and the NAO has often been negative as of late too. Fascinating effects. Thanks for the clarification lorenzo!
  13. FrenchScotPilot1
    I blame the SSW
  14. FrenchScotPilot1
    NAO maintaining negative values. Could be that the Greenland high slipping SE'wards would stall the week end fronts further south. Very interesting to follow either way.
  15. FrenchScotPilot1
    NAO maintaining negative values. Could be that the Greenland high slipping SE'wards would stall the week end fronts further south. Very interesting to follow either way.
  16. FrenchScotPilot1
    What a fountain of knowledge! Very good post. Could you please elaborate a little on the end of point 4 (-8 rule) if you have time. Thanks
  17. FrenchScotPilot1
    Frequent snow showers in Dyce all morning. Radar shows a bit of an accalmy for now.
  18. FrenchScotPilot1
    Yes thanks. There is a great level of experience and knowledge over there but it is annoying because everything is to do with England!
  19. FrenchScotPilot1
    Too far inland for showers to reach with an E'ly flow. Better with NW'lies.
  20. FrenchScotPilot1
    What's an appropriate word 'better' than Fantasy Island?
  21. FrenchScotPilot1
    Aaaaaah ok! It all make sense now. Thanks!! Moderators can delete if needed.
  22. FrenchScotPilot1
    Sorry guys, I've tried to work it out but I failed miserably. What does FI mean?
  23. FrenchScotPilot1
    Will do. Thanks for the wealth of knowledge John.
  24. FrenchScotPilot1
    The North Sea is pretty cold at the moment (about 5 degrees). See http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/index.html?i=34&j=2 But the 850 hPa air forecast to cross it is expected to be around -15 degrees. My question is: what value of temperature gradient (SST-850 hPa) do you use for effective convection? This is about 20 degrees in this case. Obviously, it also needs moisture for showers. Many thanks for some pointers, Stephane
  25. FrenchScotPilot1
    Thanks SK: the fact that the PV has already been disrupted is enough to displace surface HP and LP from their usual positions. All clear. FSP
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