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Ian Brown

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Everything posted by Ian Brown

  1. Ian Brown
    No consistency in the runs at the moment for next weekend onwards. Uninspiring GFS run on the whole and the ensembles will probably show wide variation beyond T192.
  2. Ian Brown
    Well we will have to disagree Steve but I would love to see a T264 chart ! It's funny how those in the West view the charts different from those in the SE but that will always be the case. Much water to go under the bridge and no doubt more changes to come but generally I'm encouraged by the overall NWP today.
  3. Ian Brown
    Do you think so ? T240 is pure conjecture in any chart but the Low to the NW is deep and I would think it would force a retreat from the Scandi High unless the energy went SE and allow Westward movement. I think anyway in early season we should be looking to the North for our cold, unless something pretty special like Nov 10 is on the cards, which I don't think it is.
  4. Ian Brown
    Yep, another run that shows mid-latitude HP and the splitting of the jet. Then it depends on further upstream developments to get that HP in the right place. Historically synoptically by far the better bet would be retrogression to the Greenland area
  5. Ian Brown
    ECM at T192 and potentially promising.
  6. Ian Brown
    Interesting GP, but synoptically if the heights are not high enough - i.e low pressure crosses the Greenland plateau, then it serves to sink the block. Promising GFS but nothing to suggest anything to be too bullish about IMO.
  7. Ian Brown
    It is mild EML, but if the synoptics were right, cold pools would soon develop on the SE flank of wherever the HP is. But I think we are barking up the wrong tree by looking to the NE given the likely synoptics towards the end of next week, we should be looking for heights to rise to the NW and I'm thinking there is an increased probability of this.
  8. Ian Brown
    I would say no based on the output this morning. The modelling is trending towards a mid-latitude HP of some description beyond T200, I think the only way to win from there if retrogression to Greenland can take place which the GFS OP shows in the deepest reaches of FI. It's a long way from Nov 2010 which of course was pretty exceptional, but it could be a lot worse.
  9. Ian Brown
    The ECM is a poor position at T240, and low heights remain to the NW. The GFS offers up a different solution with the split jet, but timing is very important and there is nothing to suggest HLB can occur in the right place, whilst the Strat continues to look unfavourable.
  10. Ian Brown
    I think one thing to point out this morning is that from the synoptic position shown in the reliable and semi-reliable timeframes, it is hard to achieve HLB in the right place for the UK. Both the GFS and ECM want to take a branch of the jet down towards Iberia, which is a clear signal for HP formation around the mid-latitudes. The GEM remains strongly zonal however. The ensemble scatter is only reflective of typical uncertainty in the upstream pattern. All things considered I would take a position of a Rex block and hope for retrogression down the line but I wouldn't be confident of losing that Northern arm of the jet.
  11. Ian Brown
    Let's just concentrate on the reliable - ECM at T168 and if it is cold weather you are looking for, it's an atrocious position. I just don't think it is fair to tell people who are not familiar with the charts, that there is jam tomorrow when the position in the RELIABLE timeframe is the tried and tested solution to prolonged zonal conditions.
  12. Ian Brown
    How do we get a NEerley from the present position ? Also, the North Sea is very mild in November - you would need a perfect synoptic set-up such as late November 2010 and that is a big leap and a jump of faith away, when what we actually have are low heights and deepening pressure to the West and North West.
  13. Ian Brown
    A progressive GFS and the main theme is the low heights to the NW, essentially held in by the pressure patterns around them, though I suspect that sunsequent runs will take the northern arm of the jet further East. I don't agree because with the -PNA you are not going to get High Pressure moving East from the seaboard to Greenland - simply not a practical synoptic evolution.
  14. Ian Brown
    The main story of the charts in the reliable timeframes is the -PNA developing with the HP off the Eastern Seaboard. We should not be looking at the High to the East as an influencing factor. The whole set-up should essentially lock-in Atlantic based weather for the rest of the month.
  15. Ian Brown
    A pretty progressive ECM run, there is nowhere for the low heights to go with a large HP extending off the Eastern Seaboard and HP over Eastern Europe. I would think pretty much stalemate and depending on the alignment of the systems, very mild at times.
  16. Ian Brown
    Irresponsible journalism from the Express, and likely to turn out wholly inaccurate anyway.
  17. Ian Brown
    Yes I would agree with this, it would be surprising to get a cold evolution for the UK beyond the T240 chart, even if that T240 chart proved to be right.
  18. Ian Brown
    Thanks Blue Army, though given my understanding of the Stratospheric position it would be take something unusual to deliver what you saying could happen. Anyway as you say its 10 ten days away and I would think a safer bet is ongoing positive NAO.
  19. Ian Brown
    I don't see an escape route for the vortex, so even if you get to the ECM later position, I don't see HLB from there and there is little in the way of cold air from the East anyway.
  20. Ian Brown
    Thanks Shotski, certainly does show how things can flip. I would have been in the US at the time so don't recall, but pretty exceptional set-up ending up the end of November for the UK.
  21. Ian Brown
    Meteociel is the French site that this comes out on ? Sorry I'm not long back from the US. I would look at that ECM chart and the thing you have is that pressure is high to the West and East of the vortex to the North, so it is not going to evolve into displacing the cold air to the middle...
  22. Ian Brown
    The Strat is a complex subject which I don't fully comprehend and it's significance is open to debate. The NAO is a variable that is very difficult to predict; a theory as good as any is that once it has defaulted to a +ve position in the winter period (ie now) that it becomes very hard to shift, certainly that has been the case over the last 25 years or so. There is, I think, looking at the American interpretation of the ENSO, very little signal either way. So on balance with the NAO having gone positive and those deep blues now appearing over Greenland, I don't really think there will be anything to significantly shift this pattern much over the coming months. I think the chap who posted the video (Glacier ?) looks to have a far greater knowledge of all sorts of factors than I've seen even from some of the US guys but just my opinion is that you start at the general default winter pattern and need really good reasons for saying that something different is the offing, and I don't really see that it is.
  23. Ian Brown
    Yes very much so, quite an intense PV to the N and NW. Quite simply, if you are looking for cold to be displaced to the mid-latitudes within the next couple of weeks, everything is in the wrong place in the reliable and semi-reliable timeframes of the charts.
  24. Ian Brown
    Why do you say that, how is that going to progress into anything other than a Westerly flow of some sort ?
  25. Ian Brown
    I just don't see how we going to get to a position where the cold air is displaced to mid-latitudes. An easterly is not going to come about from the synoptics being shown in the T144-192 sort of range.
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