Tom Jarvis
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Posts posted by Tom Jarvis
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can i just say that i am suprised that this thread hasnt gone into meltdown with these sort oif charts showing in the near reliable time frame.
if charts stay the same for the 12z i will probably see what happens when this thread goes into meltdown
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Has not stuck here in nutley but at least it snowed
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Now snowing here yes lol
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Just started raining here hope it turns to snow quickly
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I live here in East Sussex in uckfield had no snow yet but waiting paciently for it lol
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what is the ECM like??
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i hope the south east will get some snow this week tha would be a nice star to winter. hope to have a whgit chismas as well>
just had a look at the track that the tropical low will take. it shows it doing a long loop towards morroco.
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where is your home town so we know where you are talking about?-please?
Sorry my home town is uckfield in East Sussex
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Woot snow now for the south east looks like ill be fly fishing in snow
. Also lets just keep the post realistic if it is now showing snow for the south east when there wasn't any yesterday showing for the same day it is very possible that it could move one way or the other -
The storm chaser your following will be wrong-
The tropical wave is already initialised at T0 on the ECM & goes on to develop over 72 hours or so-
Its developing because of the jet streak & strong thermal gradient across its centre-
http://www.meteociel...CH0-72.GIF?30-0 Some 15 degrees or so across it.
T 120 ECM
http://www.meteociel...H1-120.GIF?30-0
slider low over iceland to move SE- this will ensure the tropical wave moves ESE- not ENE towards the UK
S
Thanks Steve
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If that channel low does come further North though it will also drag some very mild air with it ... You have to have it in exactly the right place for an all snow event,
Looking at the GEFS to see how the individual runs deal with this Low there are many options. (more than I have highlighted here)
Snow event!
Misses to the south,
Ridge building ahead,
If the air being dragged in from the East is cold enough and the centre of the low goes through the Channel then the South would get a very good chance of seeing heavy snow. These types of low are really hard to forecast even at t48 so it could disappear in upcoming runs...how good if it came off tho!
can i just say we dont even know if these lows are even going to form out in the atlantic. i follow one of the people storm chaser that live in america on facebook he says the waters are too cold and that it is highly unlikely but it is possible. so mabe we should just wait and see if the low forms in the coming days. you never know tomorrow it may not even appear on the moddeles at all
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can i pose a question what if the tropical lows dont actually form and it being a phamtom low that the moddels have just chucked in
steve murr could you shed some light on this pls
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what if these tropical lows dont actually form. where do we go from there
would like some help as im quite new to looking at moddeles
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Can I just ask what if the tropical low that the models are showing never actually formed. What would it mean model wise??
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The plot thickens
Just as the met are editing ther charts to go in line with ECM and gfs. The gfs starts to go in line with the ukmo
What will happen next
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the GEM at 138 looks similiar to the ukmo 144 but its been stuck on metociel for about an hour, anyone seen what it does next?
i managed to get it to 144
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can i just say that i have been following this four for the last week and a half. what i have learn in that time is that we need to look at the trend and that models are biast in going back to a milder set up after the cold arrives.
i have a gut feeling that once the cold sets in it will take longer to break down than what the moddels are predicting. let the moddels get to grips with what is happening in the short term and worry about how long the cold will be here next week!!!!!
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Hi there I'm quite new to this what needs to happen to get a snowfest in the uk??
. Also lets just keep the post realistic if it is now showing snow for the south east when there wasn't any yesterday showing for the same day it is very possible that it could move one way or the other
Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
can i ask would there be allot of snow fall in east sussex from theis set up?? im just wondewring as i hope it is as much as 2010