Mair Snaw
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Posts posted by Mair Snaw
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Had to take a break for a couple of days as have the OUTLAWS staying, living in a remote village up in the peak district would it be advisable for me to get shot of them before the weekend as i would wanna be snowed in with them here!!!!! was really thinking that i would come on here tonight and it would have all gone wrong but its not so advice please?? should they stay or should they go??
Just to add very happy with the output today and some stunning charts and looking forward to some serious lamp post watching in my area soon, after the snow showers of today left 1-2 cm briefly.
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omg 168
Happy birthday to me!!!!! if that comes off i will be one happy man.. went to bed last night thinking it would all go the shape of the pear over night but its just getting better with every run....
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Is that hmmmmm in a good way or a bad way? Thanks GSL
Think its in a good way, i think thats 1020hp over Scandie possible that the front stalls over the east. hope ive read that right?
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He may well agree and why should people be put on the spot when they have asked a perfectly sensible question?
I love what the ECM is showing but I think it will be a watered down version come t0. A hunch more than anything else. If UKMO and GFS was more bullish then it would help my confidence but its not there and nor is the meto. They could come on board but they are not yet.
He was asked his thoughts going forward, not what the met office think, thats all im pointing out....
I agree that if the ECM does indeed come into t72 then this place will go nuts, but i would be happier if other models were closer to the ECM solution, even so a watered down version would still be a hell of a lot better than most winters of the 90's and upto 2008.
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Remaining cold on Friday 8th February, but less windy than the previous few days. Still some wintry showers near the east coast, and some western parts perhaps cloudier with a little rain or hill snow. Brighter elsewhere after a frosty start. A similar set-up continues through Saturday and Sunday. During the following week some bands of cloud and rain will spread slowly eastwards across the UK, with some snow on hills, and possibly also temporarily to lower levels in the east. Turning less cold in the west. Later next week onwards into the following weekend some bright spells are expected, but also some unsettled weather at times, most likely to the north and west where any showers may turn wintry at times. Temperatures then close to or just below average.
Or something similar.
Sorry but this is the met office day 6-15 update...... so not sure if you have answered the post that was put to you.
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Labelled in black is where my interest lies!
Undercut??
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was it matt hugo who tweeeeeeted a few days ago about amazing blocking to the nw? it caused a bit of a storm in here, analysing a one liner.
Yes i posted something about that yesterday, think it was 51 of 51 members all showing block to the NW. then yesterday said no block and today 11 members go blocking. take from that what you can.
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you've just written off a whole month based on a couple of dodgy GFS runs and i would say the ukmo is pretty decent. I predict a major backtrack from GFS over next couple of days, it is a pants model
Lets face it a few years ago the GFS runs of recent would have had this place in meltdown, so to totally write off the rest of winter when we have so much time left is madness, only a week ago the models were screaming Zonal and look how far we have come from them charts. i do think the ECM will at some stage over the next few runs pull back from todays a little with a middle ground from the big 3 being the end result.
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twitter the clue is in the name, there are so many fake accounts on that site. all week we have had twitter this twitter that and so far none of it has come to pass.
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Yup remember it well , it was the 4th of April to be precise !
Yeah a mad day and it followed a very very warm 2nd half of march.
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Last chance saloon? On the 2nd February?
Give me strength. 1ST week of April 2012 i had 30cm of snow in an afternoon!! so that still gives me two months left. -
What is the pub run showing??
BEER
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It would spell the end of British society. What would we talk about.
Anyways time for the pub run. I hope the americans fed it a couple of singles of Jack Daniels (other better whiskeys are available)
Hope its had a couple of large ones..... come on pub run lets see how many you had before last orders.
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Yeah, don't know what happened with that, typo or too much endulgence.
Either way this nice little pun from Liam Dutton sums this weather pattern up
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To topple or not to topple, that is the question"
Not is the ECM answer. lets hope the pub run continues the slight backtrack of the 12z, and that the ECM is not out on a limb.
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Lets face it they all have. Shanon has kicked model butt this winter
Might as well quote this from Matt Hugo
12z EC ENS mean does not support the cold ECM Det model. It shows the milder Atlantic solution.
Edit - Damn you Gavin for being quicker at copy and paste
Another edit - Well the mean still straddles the 0oC mark at least. There is a lot of uncertainty.
Is that the same Matt Hugo that tweeted 51 of 51 showing heights to the NW two days ago??
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Last post till the 12Zs.
So look at the LP at +120.
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png
The further W this is the more prolonged the N,ly flow will be that occurs afterwards.
Now look at the PV at +192.
http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-192.png?6
Again the further W the more likely we are to remain in the colder Arctic airmass. However with less energy moving E through Iceland would mean a greater chance of an E,ly developing.
The potential on the model output is huge and this is not being OTT. This could trend to become a superb N,ly outbreak around the 7-8th Feb with an even tastier E,ly developing from around the 10th onwards. However it could go pearshaped with only a brief weak N,ly flow being replaced by W,lys. At the moment im going with the strong N,ly followed by the E,ly and I have a gut feeling the models over the next 48hrs will get even better!
Hi TEITS, could you just confirm which LP i should be looking at, is it the one to the west of greenland or the one to our north, just learning and new to the charts. thanks in advance.
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Just in time!
Yeah just in time for spring!!! wait all winter and then........................
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its amazing how people have been here for so many years cant read a chart still-
the 240 chart sees the low over iceland getting sheared with all the energy getting swept NNE west of Norway with a second pulse of energy in the atlantic moving SE which will slide across the UK.
The day 11 chart will have a +VE scandi high. low over europe with a COL close to the east of UK & a shortwave moving south over the west of the UK - snow on eastern flank-
S
Great post this, as a newbie to all this i find post like yours and the other more experienced posters really help to make a glimmer of light appear at the end of a long tunnel, please keep up the great posts along with the others.
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Quite a lot infact, except for the SW, if there were any embedded troughs passing through,they would be very likely to fall as snow.
Thanks still learning, and as a newbie didnt want to go steaming in if wrong, are we looking at the M4 as the snow line again?
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn842.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn8417.png
Am i right in thinking this could bring snow showers/snow for some from this?
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The 10th springs to mind! (look at my signature lol)
BANK THIS CHART PLEASE, my birthday the next day and that would be the best prezzie ive had since feb 1991.
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Hi I'm new to this can you explain why that line is significant ...thankyou :-)
new to this too but from what i understand its to do with the temp of the layer of air, 528 or less normally brings snow to the UK, guys if im wrong please explain.
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UKMO T96hrs fax chart, colder conditions spreading south with several fronts, looks quite wintry:
That 528 line just IMBY will take that as a start to Feb. quick question from a newbie does being at 250m asl make a difference to the 528 dam line or is that for sea level?. sorry if thats a silly question.
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Hi First post on here after a short time watching and reading trying to get a handle on the outputs, really good thread this and i think some of the more senior posters have given me a real good few weeks of model watching, just a shame that some get a bit caught up in it so much, i understand that people have hopes etc for winter and its good to see a difference of thought, I for one am a life long lamp post watcher and snow/cold fan. i hope for a BIG SNOW event in the next month or so, thats even after over 40cm IMBY in the last two weeks. Guys keep up the great work and keep this thread worth tuning into every day/night.
Give me strength.
1ST week of April 2012 i had 30cm of snow in an afternoon!! so that still gives me two months left. 
Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Hmmmmm Really? i still had snow in first week of April last year, winter maybe over in your world but i still have 8 weeks of possible winter left. looking forward to my heavy snow on sunday/monday. you enjoy your summer!! lol